Stan Musial's Stance

Perhaps, the End of the Beginning

2010-01-04T04:30:00.000-08:00

With the New Year come resolutions and a chance for new beginnings. I'm not the resolution type, because it's the rare resolution I'm able to follow through on. Besides, if you really want to make a change or start something new, why wait until 31 December to decide on doing it?

Is this instance, however, the symmetry seemed appropriate. One of the unexpected benefits I've gotten from being a member of the United Cardinal Bloggers, and the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, is the chance to see how other writers do it - both from a style perspective, and from a blog layout one. It's become more and more apparent to me I have taken the Blogger format as far as I probably can. There are other things I'd like to be able to do on this site, and Blogger either doesn't support it, or doesn't support it easily.

One of the main changes I want to make is to make the website URL something more obvious, like maybe stanmusialsstance.com? Blogger doesn't support domain names like that. I've also wanted to make the site more mobile device friendly, something Blogger doesn't support either.

However, Wordpress does. And over my Christmas vacation, I've stood up Stan Musial's Stance there and transferred my archive.

As a result, this will be the last post at this address. The site will remain up - there's no reason to delete it - so you, gentle reader, can follow the trail if you forget to update your links.

It's been a lot of fun writing here. I hope it will be at least as much fun writing over there. And I hope you come along, too.

UCB Topic - Top 5 Stories of 2009

2009-12-31T04:30:00.000-08:00

We bring 2009 to a close with one man's opinion on the Top 5 Cardinal related stories of the year.

I know/assume several posts tomorrow will cover the playoff run, Wainwright/Carpenter and the Cy Young Award, the All-Star Game, the DeRosa trade, the Holliday trade, the Lugo trade, Dave Duncan's hissy fit with the media regarding their treatment of his son, NLDS Game 2, David Freese imbibing enough alcohol to kill a small horse yet still stay semi-coherent (but he doesn't have a drinking problem, nooooo), the Scott Boras/John Mozeliak Mexican Standoff, and so on. Let's take a different tack. Let's look at five interesting events regarding the Cardinal Blogger Community.

(drum roll, please)

IN order, I present the Top 5 Cardinal Blogger Events of 2009.

5. Erik Manning joins Fangraphs
If you're smart, you surround yourself with smart people willing to tell you when you're wrong. If you're dumb, you surround yourself with smart people to keep youself out of trouble. I'll reserve for others to determine where I fall on this scale, but Erik Manning is undoubtedly smart.

The brains behind Future Redbirds for years, Erik joined the Fangraphs team this past June (it's the bottom post on the link; sorry I couldn't get the story to come up solo). I surf over there a lot. I started reading Fangraphs because I liked what Dave Cameron had to say about baseball at U.S.S. Mariner, and he contributes at Fangraphs often. It was a nice mid-season surprise to see Erik's name on the ledger. "HEY! I know that guy!"

Well OK, I 'know' him through the UCB and Facebook, and the occasional interview at the UCB Radio Hour, but still - it's a brush with greatness for all of us. We all knew he was knowledgable; now a whole new audience knows it too. Congrats to Erik (again).

4. Fox Sports Midwest Live Game Blogs with a UCB flavor
This season saw FSMW start doing a live game blog for the Thursday day games. This was a cool idea, and it worked well, at least from my perspective. There was some delay between typing a comment and seeing it in the chat room, and some drop-out issues, but overall it was a positive development for Cardinal broadcasts.

For me personally, it offered the opportunity to interact with other Cardinal fans while watching/tracking the game on my computer. And, the middle innings coincided with my lunch break at work, so I could happily munch on a sandwich while following the game, with a few snide comments and/or insight thrown in.

For the UCB, it offered another forum to promote the group. UCB members were conspicuous during the broadcasts, and on at least one occasion the FSMW moderator mentioned the UCB Radio Hours during the broadcast. I don't think it ever made the actual telecast, but the publicity from the live chat was huge. More exposure, more fans listening, more discussion on the Cardinals. That's why it checks in at #4.

3. Cardinal 70 founds the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, immediately crosses swords with the BBWAA.
The UCB is full of movers and shakers, isn't it? How did I hoodwink them into extending me membership? Let's not ask that question. The UCB has been a big success in it's 2 years, so Dan decided to expand his reach and form a loose coalition of baseball bloggers.

Great idea. Get writers from all the major league teams, as well as some general blogs, together to talk baseball. The BBA has it's own website and everything.

Because we're intelligent people who like intelligent discussion, we decided to offer our own thoughts on who should win the Cy Young, MVP, ROY, and Manger of the Year awards for 2009. Dan then published those results to the media contacts he had in his Rolodex, er, his email address book. Innocent fun, right?

Sure. Until the BBWAA took exception to the BBA 'awarding' the awards, and so stated their angst via email. Clearly Dan's intention was not to try and usurp the BBWAA (right, Dan?), but they didn't see it that way. From my perspective, this event was proof of two things:

A. Media types actually read Dan's email (positive)
B. It was publicity, and any publicity is good publicity (also positive).

2. Interviews, Muffed Interviews, and More Interviews
The All Star Game in St Louis provided a lot of story ideas for both the media and us humble bloggers. Bank of America marketing hit upon the bright idea to use Cardinal HOF and Legends as spokesmen for their MLB Checking, and had these men make appearances throughout the St Louis area.

They also offered them up for interviews, which presented the UCB with the unique opportunity to talk to a Hall of Famer. Members of the guild spoke with Ozzie Smith, Bruce Sutter, and Lou Brock.

Additionally, we attempted to interview Al Hrabowsky, but due to technical difficulties that never happened.

Finally, our success with the HOF men opened a door to interview Bill DeWitt III, which we did as a group in October.

That's a big story, and probably would be the biggest blogger story of 2009 if not for the next one.

1. Fungoes selected for ESPN's SweetSpot Network
Rob Neyer is a good writer at ESPN, taking a bit more saber-metric centered approach to his baseball analysis. Sometime during 2009, he decided to create a Network made up of 30 blog authors, one for each ML team.

His SweetSpot Network debuted just before the playoffs started. The first 8 blogs announced were for the 8 playoff teams. Representing the Cardinals was Pip from Fungoes. Pip, like Erik, is undoubtedly smart. And again, his selection reflects well on the UCB.

The fact that ESPN decided to create a Network comprised of fan blogs is testament to the impact bloggers have had on how sports news is disseminated and consumed. One might argue other Cardinal blogs deserved to be selected, but no one will argue Fungoes' selection was a poor or misguided one. Recognition by a mainstream media organization like ESPN is a major step forward for blogging as a whole, and big news in the UCB. Congratulations, Pip (again) - this event is the top Cardinal blogger story of 2009.

The Dominoes Start to Fall

2009-12-30T10:14:00.000-08:00

Since we last spoke, Mark DeRosa signed a 2-year, $12 million deal with the Giants, and Jason Bay signed a 4-year, $65 million deal with the Mets.

DeRosa stated he was 'Tired of being someone's Plan B'. That's a veiled shot at the Cardinals, isn't it? You know what? I don't blame him for moving on. Even if he waited until Matt Holliday signed, the odds of Mark DeRosa not playing somewhere next season hovered around 0.000001%; the amount of money he would make next season, however, probably rode an inverse proportion relationship with when he signed. The longer he waited, the more anxious he would get about signing on with someone, and the less money he might have been forced to take to play.

To you and me, the difference between $4 mil and $6 mil is like the difference between apple and watermelon Jolly Ranchers - apple is clearly better than watermelon, but in the end they're both pretty darn good. For a guy trying to maximize his earning power using perishable physical gifts, that's a pretty big difference. So Mark took the best deal with a team he didn't mind playing for. Good for him.

One guy out of the LF sweepstakes.

The Cardinals never expressed real interest in Jason Bay, for which I remain thankful. We've had plenty of decent-bat, no-glove guys patrol that corner (see Gant, Ron; Sanders, Reggie; and Duncan, Chris), and I hoped that pattern wouldn't repeat itself with Bay. The more important outcome of Bay joining the Mets is the price tag. He's to make $16.25 mil per year. Since most observers rank Holliday a better outfielder than Bay, I believe we've just firmly established the floor for the Holliday negotiations.

Boras/Holliday won't accept less than $16.25 million per season to play for the Cardinals. The length of contract, opt-out clause, no-trade protection? All just contract language. First, we must agree on price. Chet Novak posted on Facebook his guess: $17 mil per/8 years. If the $18 million figure bandied about before the season ended becomes the high end of the range for Holliday, this is a completely reasonable guess at a per year cost for his services. But boy, I really hope the Cardinals don't ink him for 8 years. Paying a guy $17 million a year for his age 37-38 seasons seems a tremendous waste of money to me. Should the Cardinals go with a 8-year contract, I'd prefer to see a mutual option each year for the last 3 years written into the contract language. That would at least protect the club should a Vernon Wells-type decline in skill start, and not make the contract a millstone.

2009-12-24T08:06:00.000-08:00

Christmas is much, much more than the retail bonanza it's turned into. The most succinct way of expressing that is one I've published here before, and am repeating again today.

"Today I want to tell you the story of an empty stocking.

Once upon a midnight clear, there was a child's cry. A blazing star hung over a stable and wise men came with birthday gifts. We haven't forgotten that night down the centuries; we celebrate it with stars on Christmas trees, the sound of bells, and gifts.

But especially with gifts. You give me a book; I give you a tie. Aunt Martha has always wanted an orange squeezer, and Uncle Henry could do with a new pipe. We forget nobody, adult or child. All the stockings are filled...

all, that is, except one. And we have even forgotten to hang it up.

The stocking for the Child born in a manger.

It's His birthday we are celebrating. Don't ever let us forget that. Let us ask ourselves what He would wish for most and then let each put in his share: loving kindness, warm hearts, and the stretched-out hand of tolerance; all the shining gifts that make peace on Earth.

- Re-printed w/o permission from the movie "The Bishop's Wife" (1947)

With warm wishes for a Happy Christmas.

Rumors, Arrests, and Whatnot

2009-12-17T13:43:00.000-08:00

Been an interesting week for rumors, no?

First, Matt Holliday was offered a contract for about $15 million per, 5 years. Then it became 8 years. Then 8 years at $16M per. Now it's back to 5 years, but still $16M per. And today ESPN Insider contains a report he's drawing interest from the Orioles.

I'm having a hard time imagining Holliday with the Orioles. Not saying Camden Yards is a bad place to play, or the people of Baltimore are somehow lesser humans than the rest of us; although they did take away the Browns. Even that, I guess, could be considered a good thing depending on your point of view. It's just that Baltimore has a lot of young outfielders on the roster already - Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Felix Pie - under cost-effective control for a while still. Baltimore needs a third baseman and those guys who throw strikes and get people out. Plus, as I mentioned last night on the UCB Hour, AL teams likely remain a little leery of Holliday's bat in their league, given how he struggled in Oakland the first half of 2009.

So I think this becomes nothing other than "more posturing" by Holliday's representation.

What is interesting is the lack of rumor out there regarding other teams most thought might make a run at Matt, like the Yankees, Mets, and Angels. I don't believe a guy with Holliday's skill isn't in demand with teams other than the Cardinals, but you wouldn't know it based on the RUMINT out there.

The other big news item this week revolves around David Freese's drinking. Or rather, his drinking and driving. David, arrested for DWI, reportedly blew a 0.232 BAC, 45 minutes after his arrest. David stands 6 foot 2 inches tall and weighs 220 pounds. If I remember correctly, the story reported David admitting to drinking 7 beers. I don't know the time frame; let's assume from 8pm to 2am (he was arrested at 2:4am). That's 6 hours. The chart below shows BAC based on number of drinks and body weight.

OK. Twelve drinks would give an average 220 pound man a BAC of .205. The body burns approximately .015 alcohol per hour, and his BAC was taken approximately 1.5 hours after his last drink. If he'd had 12 drinks, his BAC should have been (.205 - (.015 x 7.5)) = .0925. It was close to three times that value. Which means (a) he drank for less than 6 hours, and/or (b) he had more than 7 beers, and more than 12 drinks.

I'd say David Freese has a drinking problem. Especially since it's recently come to light he was cited for public intoxication while in the Padre minor league system.

I have two thoughts on this. First, I'm glad to see the Cardinals and Freese have decided David needs professional help, and taken steps to provide that. Second, seeing as this becomes the fourth substance abuse issue to hit the Cardinals in the last 2 years, they club has a problem. And they need to aggressively move to squash it.

No reasonable person would recommend the club can David Freese, or deny him a shot at the everyday third baseman job. He didn't (luckily, I know) hurt anyone driving drunk. We will probably not know the full details of what the club does, but I wouldn't be surprised (and frankly expect) he'll pay a fine imposed by the club, and be 'asked' to perform some community service, like talking to high school students, something like that, in addition to whatever John Law throws his way.

And on that sober note, this will probably be my last post until after Christmas. Should some large story develop between now and 31 December, like Holliday signs with St Louis or signs somewhere else, or they pry Cliff Lee from the Mariners, I'll put some thoughts up here. There is a UCB topic coming up - top 5 Cardinal stories of 2009 - that's collectively to be posted 31 December, and I'll be involved in that.

And there may be a story of an empty stocking here on Christmas Eve.

But until the calendar starts to turn, to echo the Christian tradition my ancestors bequeathed me, Peace to You and Yours, and a very Merry Christmas.

[update] I fixed the formatting issues. Sorry about that.

Cards lose Parisi, gain Jukich

2009-12-10T09:54:00.001-08:00

Rule V Draft is in progress, but here are the early results:

Major League Phase:

Mike Parisi is a Cub.

Cardinals acquire LHP Ben Jukich from Cincinnati.

AAA Phase:

Memphis Redbirds acquire Matt Meyer from Cleveland.

AA Phase: In progress.

Rule V draft results can be followed here. Cards Clubhouse has a thread on Parisi's loss, and some data on Jukich, AND some data on the Rule V draft process.

More info later today, as time allows.

Arbitration Results and Brad Penny

2009-12-08T04:30:00.000-08:00

I thought Matt Holliday would decline arbitration, but that DeRosa and/or Pineiro might accept. Holliday did indeed decline, and so did Mark and Joel. So that's that.

No one reading these words should be surprised Holliday declined. He's 26 and $cott Bora$ is his agent. He's about to become a very rich man. DeRosa's move to decline was perhaps influenced by the big deals Placido Polanco (3 yrs/$18M with Philadelphia) and Chone Figgins (4 yrs/$36M with Seattle) signed. Erik Manning posted an article over at Fangraphs today which neatly summarizes DeRosa's value. I think Mark saw the two aforementioned deals and realized he could command between 7-9 million dollars, even while coming back from wrist surgery. Can't blame him for chasing the funds.

Pineiro, well, he had expressed interest in staying a Cardinal. However, he probably thinks based on this past season he'll get something north of the $6.5M he made in 2009, and get a multi-year deal. He may be right. Again, he's chasing the money and long-term security.

There is still a chance Joel could return to the Cardinals, but that chance became a lot longer based on the widely reported imminent signing of Brad Penny. There had been discussion about bringing a veteran pitcher on a short term deal like a 1-year contract. John Smoltz dominated that discussion. Ben Sheets also seemed a viable candidate. But Brad Penny? Wow.

Why would the Cardinals give Penny $7.5M in base salary after he struggled for most of last year? Penny finished 11-9 with a 4.88 ERA in 173.1 innings for the Red Sox and Dodgers. Doesn't seem to make sense. Let's look a little deeper. His FIP was 4.46. That's not great; in fact, it's the fourth highest FIP of his career (his worst FIP season was 2008 - 5.27). His K/9 was 5.66, the second lowest of his career. BB/9 ratio? 2.14 (fifth BEST of his career, and best since 2006). K/BB (2.14) and BABIP (.307) were right on his career averages (2.17 and .303 respectively), and his HR/9 ratio was slightly elevated (0.88 career vice 1.14 in 2009).

Other than his strikeouts being down, what caused his bad year last year? Well his fly ball percentage was the worst of his career (38.4%), and in a park as small as Fenway is, that probably killed him. Guys also didn't swing at his stuff out of the strike zone as much as they did in years past, which would also explain his lower strikeout totals.

Penny becomes an intriguing guy for next year's rotation. He won't be as good as he was with the Giants (and in their pitching-friendly ballpark), and he won't be as bad as he was with the Red Sox (and their hitting-friendly park). Not sure if he's worth $7.5M, but Mozeliak is a better judge of market pricing than I am.

Welcome, Brad Penny.

Whitey Herzog Elected to the Hall of Fame

2009-12-07T09:50:00.000-08:00

On this sober anniversary, a piece of good news. Whitey Herzog has been elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veteran's Committee.

Obviously I'm excited by this. Whitey managed the Cardinal teams of my teenage years, the teams that left an indelible mark on my fandom and cemented the Cardinals as my team of choice. The 1982 team won it all, the 1985 team was my favorite, the 1987 team gets less credit than it should, and the 1989 team was headed to the post season too until a Labor Day series in New York derailed it.

Whitey is elected for the sum total of his managerial expertise, and success, so his years in Kansas City can't be ignored (although his year in Texas will be). 5 Divisional championships, 3 League Championships, and the 82 World Series.

A good start to the week, despite the local rain. Congratulations Whitey!

Seeing as the Winter Meetings start today, we'll keep tabs on what's happening and comment as events dictate.

Arbitration Offers

2009-12-02T14:00:00.000-08:00

During a recent UCB interview, when asked which Cardinals would be offered arbitration, Matt Leach (mlb.com) replied he thought only Matt Holliday would get an offer. Here's the quote (question starts at 17:25 on the recording):

"I think that this front office has shown that it has a real hesitation to offer arbitration to anybody who even might accept that they might be worried about having to pay the salary. I think that they have pretty consistently shown that. Each of the past two years I have been surprised at some of the decisions, and I have yet to be surprised with them offering to somebody. If I had to guess I would guess that there's a pretty good chance that Holliday is the only guy they offer to. They've just shown themselves to be very risk adverse when it comes to the possibility of somebody accepting arbitration.

Now if the negotations start going somewhere that kinda leads you to believe things are different, that's one thing - but also remember that under the new CBA [collective bargaining agreement] that not offering arbitration is not the sort of 'death knell' in negotiations that it once was. So to some extent, not offering is no longer the risk that it was. Again, this is one area where I actually disagree with them - I think that you should be willing to take those risks. I think the draft picks are so valuable. But I think they have shown themselves to be very, very risk adverse when it comes to the possibility of players accepting arbitration."

Apparently the Cardinal Front Office has reconsidered their position and decided to accept the risk, because today they offered arbitration to Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, and Joel Pineiro. According to about.com's baseball page, that's all the Type A/B free agents the Cardinals had this season.

What are the implications? Baseball's arbitration rules are summarized here. Bottom line is Holliday, DeRosa, and Pineiro have until midnight EST on 7 December to accept/reject arbitration. If they accept, they go back on the Cardinals 40-man roster even though they do not have a contract in place yet, and negotiations for compensation continue. If they reject they return to the free agent pool. The Cardinals will get a compensation pick (or two in the case of Holliday, a Type A free agent) when/if they sign with someone else.

My take on the why.

Prospect Replacement. The Cardinals traded away a large chunk of their high value prospects to acquire DeRosa and Holliday. If in the worst-case all 3 reject arbitration, the Cardinals would receive 4 compensation picks. They traded away 5 in 2009 (Perez, Todd, Wallace, Mortensen, Peterson), so those 4 picks would go a long way to evening the scales in the minors. Granted, picking up raw talent to replace MLB-ready guys like Perez/Todd/Wallace isn't a fair swap or comparison, but at least there will be some return on the DeRosa/Holliday investment.

Third Base Situation. At the start of the off season there was a lot written about David Freese getting a real shot to play third next season, and although no one in the Cardinal organization anointed him the starting third baseman in 2010, it 'seemed' to be the case. Freese may not be ready. Bringing DeRosa back would allow him to develop a little further in the minors, and perhaps hold down a bench position on the major league club while learning. Call it risk mitigation going forward for the big club. Not a bad move.

Who Wouldn't Want These Guys On The Roster? Holliday is a bona-fide power hitter giving the Cardinals additional thump in the lineup. DeRosa should - will - hit much better in 2010 when fully healthy than he did the second half of 2009 with a bum wrist. And Pineiro thrived last year under Duncan, using his sinkers to force hitters into pounding the ball into the dirt (Career year concerns do exist for Pineiro, but his ground ball dominance continued a trend he's had for a couple of years, and is a repeatable skill in my opinion).

Prognosis. Holliday is due for a big payday this off-season if he stays a free agent. I would expect Holliday to reject arbitration. Pineiro already expressed interest in returning to the Club for 2010 and beyond. I think Pineiro accepts as well. DeRosa, with the bum wrist, isn't as desirable this off-season as he was last. The Cubs may make a real run at him; if they've already been in contact with DeRosa, and have a tantalizing offer on the table, he'll probably reject arbitration. Absent that I would expect DeRosa also returns.

Post-Thanksgiving Food Coma

2009-11-27T16:23:00.000-08:00

I would have wished everyone a Happy Thanksgiving sooner, but was wrapped up in last-minute preparations for Thanksgiving on Wednesday - as well as an unscheduled trip to the Doctor for the boys (bronchitis). Thursday, I meant to write, really I did, but somewhere between the turkey and pecan pie I slipped into a coma. I suspect I'm not alone on this one.

I can't believe I ate the whole thing.

Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving to all. May your indigestion be short and your dessert leftovers last you into next week.

Some news and notes
- The 2009 United Cardinal Blogger awards are official. No real surprises in there, and no arguments here with the winners. Congratulations to all.

- Even with the excitement of Wednesday, I was able to dial into the UCB Radio Hour and spend 23 min or so with Dan. We had a lively discussion about all the end of the year awards, especially the NL Cy Young and evaluating pitchers. There may be some additional discussion on the recording - things got a little heated in my house, oh the joys of potty-training children - so don't be surprised. I haven't listened to it yet, so I don't know what to expect.

- The 2010 Hall of Fame ballot was announced today. In addition to the expected returnees to the ballot (Blyleven, Dawson, McGwire), there are 15 new candidates, including former Cardinals Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Todd Zeile, and Ray Lankford. Most of these guys made their names with other teams - Galarraga with Montreal and Colorado, Hentgen with Toronto, Zeile by bouncing around the league for 10 years after leaving St Louis.

Ray Lankford was different. He was a Cardinal for virtually all of his career, except for a couple of years in San Diego (you may remember that lopsided trade - Lankford for Woody Williams in 2001). From the day Whitey Herzog resigned to the day Tony LaRussa was hired, the Cardinals were a mediocre team at best. Over parts of 5 and a half seasons they were 406-419-1, and never finished within 10 games of first. Ray Lankford was one of the few bright spots on those teams.

Ray took over in CF from Willie McGee following the 1990 season. He finished third in the 1991 ROY voting (behind Jeff Bagwell and Orlando Merced), and he led the majors in triples with 15. The following year he finished ninth in the NL in OPS+, and led the league in caught stealings and strikeouts (not really something to brag about, but still). From 1993-1996 he put up solid numbers while patrolling center. His only other really good year was 1997, when he was voted to the All-Star game, and posted the highest OPS+ of his career (159), good enough for 5th in the league. He was pushed to LF from CF by the arrival of JD Drew before the 1999 season. He fought the injury bug starting in 1999. He missed most of July and all of August in 2002, and didn't play in 2003; he tried a comeback in 2004, and made the team out of spring training, but he didn't play in the post season that year and retired following the season.

He posted a career .366 wOBA. It's too bad UZR and Dewan's plus/mnus don't go back past 2002, because we can't quantify how good a fielder he was. In 2002 he had a UZR of 6.2 for the Padres, but that was in 3 games so doesn't mean much. His UZR in LF was -26.1 in 59 games.

Also for what its worth, here's where Ray Lankford ranks on the 'All-Time Busch Stadium II Leaders' list:

Games Played - 4th (790)
At Bats - 5th (2705)
Hits - 5th (776)
Runs - 3rd (461)
Doubles - 1st (181)
Triples - 6th (30)
HR - 1st (122)
RBI - 2nd (458)
Stolen Bases - 5th (117)

Ray to the Hall? Not likely. Baseball Reference's Similarity Scores compare him to the following players: Kirk Gibson, Raul Mondesi, Torii Hunter, Bill Nicholson, Cliff Floyd, Mike Cameron, Larry Doby, Eric Davis, Reggie Sanders, and Rick Monday. Only Larry Doby is in the Hall. Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron, and Cliff Floyd are still active, but probably won't get a serious look; the rest of this list are no longer eligible to be voted in and can only become a Hall of Famer if the Veteran's Committee selects them. Probably Kirk Gibson has the best shot of that lot.

But it's nice to see his name on the ballot. It brought back some pleasant memories.

The Cy Young, Sabermetrics, and Evaluating Pitchers

2009-11-24T08:30:00.000-08:00

First, an announcement. I'm now contrbuting at Baseball Reflections. The gig is for more general baseball content, and is a weekly item. So far, there've been two articles, one on Jorge Posada, one on instant replay. Lots of good stuff over at the site. Stop by and take a look.

I keep mulling over the Cy Young results. I've mentioned before I don't have an issue with who won, but I've been wondering about the methodology used to select the winner.

My rankings for Cy Young went Lincecum, Vasquez, Carpenter, Wainwright. Keith Law came up with the same rankings, albeith with Wainwright in place of Carpenter for third, putting me in the interesting position of agreeing with Keith Law. I came to my order after looking at some of the traditional metrics (ERA, Wins, Strikeouts, etc), and some of the new statistics (FIP, WAR). I allowed the more sophisticated stats to trump the traditional ones. Fairly or not, Keith Law came under fire for his rankings, which caused me to re-examine mine.

For years, we in the sabermetric community have dissed wins as a measure of a pitcher's performance, and with good reason. The way managers use their pitching staff, especially their bullpens, has rendered the win pretty meaningless. If you've played any fantasy baseball in a league using wins as a statistical category, you've seen one of your relief pitchers get credit for a win after throwing 4 pitches, or one of your starters get a no decision after throwing 8 shutout innings because the closer came in and started throwing BP.

ERA is also out of vogue, mostly because of unearned runs being determined by the awarding of errors, an inherently subjective statistic based solely on the official scorer's determination as to whether the fielder should have made the play cleanly. We invented things like WHIP to better understand what made a pitcher successful. Then Tom Tango invented FIP, which attempted to boil down pitching evaluation to those things a pitcher controlled - allowing HR, walks and hit batsmen, and strikeouts. FIP removed the rest of the defense from the pitcher evaluation. Most people believe using FIP and stats of that nature have put pitcher evaluation on the right track.

What about the pitchers who pitch to contact, and use their defense and ballpark effectively? I think this comment, from a Cy Young post Cardinal 70 did, sums it up the sabermetric community's thoughts:

I'm sympathetic to the "Should groundball pitchers be punished for basically doing their job?" argument. However, that's an a priori argument that assumes that their approach is correct. In some way, such as in the aggregate, perhaps it is. But as far as an individual pitcher's contribution -- what he alone is able to do -- fielding-independent stats tell us more about the pitcher himself. If we are rewarding individual accomplishments, as it seems the Cy Young does, team philosophies are irrelevant. They're reflected, however, in a team's success.

The author of this comment isn't some schmoe. It's Pip from Fungoes, a man who's opinion I respect, an educated man who speaks intelligently about baseball in his blog posts. But I've come to disagree with this position. I think the SABR community is missing the forest for the trees.

The point of pitching isn't to give up no walks, no home runs, not hit anyone, and strike everybody out. The point is to get outs and keep guys off base. If you can't keep guys off base, then get outs and don't let them score. Strikeouts is only one of a variety of ways the pitcher can succeed in preventing runs.

The philosophy behind FIP is right on the money. It gives the pitcher credit for executing his pitches correctly. Most HR are allowed because a pitcher leaves the pitch in the fat part of the plate; perhaps a fastball with no movement or a breaking ball that spins but doesn't break. Walks, HBP - can't find the strike zone or can't control where the ball is going. Strikeouts: most times a K is because of a well thrown pitch in the exact location it was intended to go. No argument on the components of FIP.

However, pitchers don't pitch in a vacuum, and aren't the only guys on the field when pitching.
If Buzz Bissinger is to be believed, before each game the pitching coach, pitcher, and catcher get together to discuss how they will attack the opposing lineup. They discuss pitch location and tendencies of individual hitters, to develop a game plan for the night. It's reasonable to extend this preparation to the bench coach who positions the defense. I'm sure pitching coaches and bench coaches discuss the pitcher's approach to each hitter, so as to better position the defense. Pitchers who are able to execute their pitches and use that defensive alignment should get credit for it.

Think about it. How many times have you watched a game, and in inning after inning with guys on base the pitcher manages to get the hitter to roll the ball right to an infielder? Think that was by accident?

Evaluating pitchers should also take into the types of outs that are made. In Chris Carpenter's 7 September complete game shutout against Milwaukee, he gave up two balls to the outfield. Nine IP, 1 hit, 2 walks, 10 K's. A dominating performance. The fact that 26 of the 27 outs were recorded by an infielder puts a whole other dimension on it for me. Of the 17 hitters that did put the ball in play, 16 couldn't get it out of the infield, meaning they either were fooled, or the pitch location was so good they couldn't center the ball on their bat and drive it. Carpenter should get credit for having the ability to throw that kind of game.

When you get down to it, FIP, WAR, ERA, K, K/9, BB/K, LD% GB%, all these metrics are simply tools to develop a picture of how good the pitcher is. There's no one statistic, no magic formula, that spits out who's good and who's not, and basing a Cy Young vote on one or two of them is inherently misguided. Yes I realize I'm making fun of my vote. Choosing pitching rankings by evaluating all of the data available, tempering it with personal observation if possible, is a much better way of doing business.

Again, I don't disagree with how the Cy Young voting shook out. The top three vote getters were all deserving of the award, and the fact 10 points separated them is good evidence the voters were torn as to who was the best. Wins and ERA aren't the be-all and end-all for evaluating pitchers. But neither are FIP and WAR. And not taking the use of the defense into account when deciding which pitcher has performed the best over the course of a whole season is to not use all the data at our disposal. It does a disservice to pitchers that don't have Lincecum's stuff but are still mighty effective pitchers.

I disagree with the community. You can't properly evaluate pitching without including some statistical information on how they use their defense. This is, after all, a team game.

UCB Topic: 2009 Cardinal Blogger Awards

2009-11-20T04:30:00.000-08:00

This is the third consecutive year for the Blogger awards. and I'm back in the saddle after not submitting a ballot in 2008. It's a fun look back at the past year. The final results of the voting will be put up at Dan's site at some point; I wouldn't expect it to happen tomorrow, but most likely by Thanksgiving.

So, on to the voting:

1. Cardinal Player of the Year - Albert Pujols. Could there be any other? The NL MVP favorite. He's won the Fielding Bible award for his defense at first, and the Silver Slugger for NL first basemen as well. His 188 OPS+ led the league for the second year in a row and third time in 4 years. Easy.

2. Cardinal Pitcher of the Year - Chris Carpenter. This might take some of the sting out of finishing second in the Cy Young voting. Honorable Mention - Joel Pineiro.

3. Game of the Year - 29 July 09 (Cardinals 3, Dodgers 2 (15)). Widely considered to be the best game of the season at the time. This game saw a classic pitchers duel between Pineiro and Clayton Kershaw; a clutch single from Colby Rasmus to tie it up in the bottom of the ninth; a rare (at that time) bad Franklin outing; Ludwick tying the game at 2-2 in the eleventh, then throwing out Ramirez trying to score in the twelfth; and finally AP knocking in the winner with a booming shot to CF in the fifteenth. Honorable Mention: August 23 09 at San Diego - Smoltz's debut, AP's 40th HR, Franklin's meltdowns start in earnest. I was there, too.

4. Surprise Player of the Year - Brendan Ryan. He gets the nod here because most observers did not expect him to evolve into the everyday shortstop, which on May 19 is exactly what he was. Honorable Mention: Blake Hawksworth, Joel Pineiro.

5. Disappointing Player of the Year - Kyle Lohse. Khalil Greene is too easy a choice, and let's face it: based on his 2009 numbers are pretty similar to his 2008 ones. No, it's gotta be Lohse, who followed his 15-win campaign in 2008 with a 6 win effort in 2009. To be fair, the hit by pitch really screwed up his year, as opposed to Lohse just sucking out loud; but no matter what the reason or why, he didn't perform as we had hoped. Which makes him the disappointing player for 2009. Honorable Mention: K. Greene, Rick Ankiel.

6. Cardinal Rookie of the Year - Colby Rasmus. Led all NL CF in UZR/150 (13.4), and was having a ROY-caliber season when he got hurt in July. Honorable Mention: Blake Hawksworth.

7. Off-season Acquisition of the Year - Trever Miller. Signed for $500k on 12/3/08, he ended up being the better of the two left-handed specialists, and one of the most reliable guys period out of the Cardinal bullpen in 2009.

8. Mid-season Acquisition of the Year - Matt Holliday. Let's see... DeRosa was hurt, Julio Lugo can't play defense, Smoltz - well, Smoltz was pretty good. But Holliday's arrival helped spur the Cardinals to their best month of the season (August), and vaulted them into the playoffs. Honorable Mention - John Smoltz.

9. Most Anticipated Cardinal - David Freese. If he can hit and play defense at the major league level like he did last season in the high minors, the Cardinals will have an ecomonical bat under their control and a big contributor in the middle of the order.

10. Best Individual Blog - Stan Musial's Stance. If I don't vote for myself, who will? OK, OK, OK. Let's invoke the 'can't vote for yourself' rule. In that case, Fungoes gets the nod. Not only do I learn something every time I stop by, Pip was selected to represent the Cardinal Bloggers in Rob Neyer's SweetSpot Network. Can't do much better than that.

11. Best Team Blog - Pitchers Hit Eighth. Viva El Birdos is still very good, but I prefer the insight I get from Nick and Josh.

12. Best Media Blog - Derrick Goold's Bird Land.

13. Best UCB Project - UCB Debate Day. I thought it was an intriguing idea - ask a question with two possibilities, then have each possibility covered by a different blogger. It made for some interesting reading, especially when the writer was arguing for a position he might not actually believe in. I also thought my 'Cubs aren't the Cardinals biggest rival' was one of my five best, so far, in 2009.

14. Most Optimistic Cardinal Blog - Pass. I can't differentiate between the blogs. Everyone in the UCB is optimistic and pessimistic, as appropriate given the situation.

15. Funniest Cardinal Blog - None. We're all pretty good writers, but high comedy isn't our strongest suit. Perhapst Fredbird Follys will fill the void here in 2010.

16. Rookie Blog of the Year - Pass. I can't keep track of all the blogs out there. I've no idea which blogs have been around 'forever' and which just started up last week.

Lincecum wins Cy Young; Some Appalled

2009-11-19T14:43:00.000-08:00

In case you hadn't heard, and I hadn't due to being at an off-site today, Tim Lincecum repeated as NL Cy Young winner, in one of the closer votes ever. It was so close that Adam Wainwright had more first place votes, but finished third overall. Chris Carpenter finished second. 10 points separated the three hurlers.

As can be expected, some Cardinal writers are incensed by this result, and that's fine. And as is typical in these types of contests, some voter ranking choices are being called into question. Interestingly, my rankings closely matched Keith Law's ballot, except I had Carpenter third instead of Wainwright. I never thought I'd agree with Keith Law on anything.

I am on record as saying Lincecum, Wainwright, and Carpenter were all worthy candidates, and whoever won amongst the three of them would be deserving. But based on the results, and some of what's been written by other writers, there are a couple of things I wanted to at least throw out there.

- Innings pitched should not enter into the Cy Young argument. What, no reliever can ever win a Cy Young again? Besides, to say one pitcher is less qualified than another because he threw 40 fewer innings, in this day and age, is ridiculous. Most pitchers don't go more than seven innings a start anymore as a general rule. Assuming a starter gets 32 starts in a season, and goes 7 innings in all of them, he'll rack up 224 innings. Lincecum averaged 7.04 innings/start (225 1/3 innings, 32 starts). Wainwright - 6.85 (233 innings, 2 more starts). Carpenter 6.88 (192 2/3, 4 fewer starts). So on the average, each guy lasted almost as long per game as the other two. It's a wash. Total IP shouldn't be the deciding factor.

Advanced statistical metrics exist to take some of these things off the table; to allow the serious observer of the game to strip things the pitcher can't control away (like how long the manager will leave him in the game) and evaluate him based on his talent alone. If anything Carpenter is MORE deserving of the award based on total innings pitched. He missed 6 weeks with a strained muscle in his midsection, and upon his return he was as dominating as he was before he got hurt. Compare that to Lohse, who was never the same after getting hit by a pitch, or Lincecum, who tired down the stretch.

- That said, some statistical metrics may be overrated. There was a comment at the bottom of Jeff Gordon's post regarding FIP, that it's too heavily weighted by strikeouts. FIP, as the name implies, takes the contribution of the defense out, evaluating the pitcher on the things he alone can control. (HR*13+(BB+HBP+IBB)*3-K*2)/innings pitched is the equation. You can see that strikeouts will raise the numerator's total value, bringing it closer to innings pitched and lowering the quotient. So it is a short walk to obvious-ville to say guys with high strikeout totals and high innings pitched will have a lower FIP than others. Lincecum led the NL in FIP at 2.34. and K with 261.

But pitching isn't all about strikeouts, nor just preventing HR, and the like. Pitching is about getting guys out and not allowing the other team to score. I did my ranking largely based on the FIP and WAR of the major candidates, but using FIP (and to a lesser extent, WAR) does a disservice to guys who successfully pitch to contact. Keith Law's ballot also appears to be largely influenced by FIP and WAR (in fact, his top 3 exactly match the WAR rankings for starting pitching). There's got to be a better way than ERA to evaluate pitching that doesn't rely heavily on strikeouts.

In the end, it is what it is. Carpenter and Wainwright had outstanding seasons. For Cardinal fans, the hope is 2009 wasn't a career year. Perhaps the Cy Young results will help motivate these guys for 2010.

2009 NL ROY balloting

2009-11-17T08:13:00.001-08:00

Let's take a look at the NL ROY results, released yesterday. If you missed it, here is how the voting went:

I'm not surprised that Chris Coughlan won as much as I am Colby Rasmus got one vote. ONE. For third place. As I noted in the Gold Glove post, Rasmus played the best defensive CF of anyone in the NL last season. You'd think he'd garner more than one vote.

For argument's sake, what's the WAR ranking of the votees?

Again, not saying Chris Coughlan was a bad choice, or that Colby Rasmus deserved it more. HOWEVER, perhaps the voting for ROY didn't take into account how much each player contributed to the team.

2009 NL Gold Glove Awardees - based solely on ???

2009-11-12T04:30:00.000-08:00

Straight from MLB, here are the players acknowledged as the best defenders in the NL in 2009:

1B - Adrian Gonzalez (SD)
2B - Orlando Hudson (LA)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (WASH)
SS - Jimmy Rollins (PHI)
C - Yadier Molina (STL)
OF - Shane Victorino (PHI)
OF - Michael Bourn (HOU)
OF - Matt Kemp (LA)
P - Adam Wainwright (STL)

Congratulations to Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright for winning this season.

For those new to the program, I highlighted the players I projected as winners in yesterday's column. Let's compare the projected folks with the winners. Fangraphs.com provides a repository of UZR data. I had hoped to include Dewan's Plus/Minus data as well (which Joe Posnanski likes to quote), but I can't find the database on line. If anyone knows where I can access that data, I'd be grateful if you include the link in the comments.

First Base - Adrian Gonzalez winning the award isn't that egregious an error. His raw UZR (3.8) was higher than Lee's (3.7). Also, Gonzalez had one more charged error in 120 more innings. Whatever your feelings are on errors, that's pretty good.

Second Base - Chase Utley had the third highest UZR in the NL this season. Orlando Hudson's was -3.7. Negative three point seven! Hudson cost the Dodgers 14 more runs than Utley did. Freddie Sanchez, Felipe Lopez, Brandon Phillips, Clint Barmes, hell even Kaz Matsui would have been better choices than Hudson. Talk about someone winning the award on reputation alone.

Third Base - No argument. The right guy won.

Shortstop - Jimmy Rollins started 152 games; JJ Hardy - 110. That must have been the deciding factor. Hardy had a better raw UZR, RngR, RF/G, and RF/9 than Rollins. In fact, the only statistics Rollins had an advantage was ErrR and Errors (Rollins - 6, Hardy - 8). If Hardy's 110 starts were a deal breaker, Ryan Theriot and Rafael Furcal both started 140+ games and saved their teams 6 more runs than Rollins did.

Outfield - The outfield voting always pisses me off, because the award usually goes to 3 center fielders. OH LOOK - that's what happened this year. Except this year's voting was worse than most.

Bourn's UZR was 8.7, Kemp's 3.2, and Victorino's -4.2. Not only were there better options in LF and RF than the winners (Ibanez's 10.7 in LF and Randy Wynn's 20.1 playing 104 games in RF), but there were 3 better CF than the winners - Nyjer Morgan (35.8), Colby Rasmus (13.7), and Mike Cameron (10.4).

The voting would be laughable except for the impact it will have on salaries for these guys and possible HOF credentials. Nothing happens in a vacuum, so to see worthy defenders ignored because of what appears to be a lack of criteria for evaluating defense is criminal. Back before 2002, using fielding percentage and errors was the best way to differentiate the good defenders from the bad. That's no longer true, with the advent of advanced statistical metrics like plus/minus and UZR.

MLB should do two things to make these awards meaningful: Mandate that voters look at advanced defensive metrics when making decisions, and take the vote away from managers/coaches - give it to an impartial body of evaluators. My guess is you could find a sabermetric organization (hey - how about SABR?) willing to sponsor the numbers part of it and distribute that data to the voters.

Otherwise, Dave Cameron is right - the award has no meaning and we should not care about the results.

2009 NL Gold Glove Projections - based solely on Defense

2009-11-11T04:30:00.000-08:00

With the AL Gold Gloves announced on Tuesday, it's time to project the NL awards - especially since they will be announced today.

I'll keep this simple. Based on UZR/150, here are the best defenders at their positions for 2009. All data is from Fangraphs.com.

1B - Derrek Lee, Cubs (4.7). AP was 5th with a 0.8.

2B - Chase Utley, Phillies (11.3). He was tied with Freddy Sanchez, but Sanchez only played 110 games. Schumaker was the third worst 2B in the NL (-8.5).

3B - Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals (20.1). Kevin Kouzmanoff has gotten a lot of publicity locally based on his league low error total (3) at third. Considering how difficult the position is to play, I would have thought he'd be the highest UZR going away. Not so. Kouz was second in the league, just ahead of Casey Blake.

No Cardinal qualified. Mark DeRosa played the most innings, and had a -5.3 for his effort. The highest Cardinal ranked was Brian Barden (20.1), but he played 1/7 the innings Zimmerman did.

SS - JJ Hardy, Brewers (8.8) and now of the Twins. He just nosed out Rafael Furcal (8.5). Brendan Ryan put up a 13.8, but it looks like he missed qualifying by about 100 innings.

C - Not measured by UZR/150, so I'm awarding the Glove to Yadier Molina. This is a Cardinal blog, after all, and he is the incumbent. No other catcher played well enough to unseat him.

LF - Raul Ibanez, Phillies (10.8). Amazing. I guess Citizens Bank is better suited to his defensive talents. No Cardinal qualified; Holliday's UZR/150 was -2.6 with St Louis.

CF - Colby Rasmus, Cardinals (13.4). How about that? He beat out Mike Cameron by about 3 UZR.

RF - Justin Upton, D-backs (8.0). Ryan Ludwick finished fourth with a -0.1

P - Another category where there isn't enough data, given starters work only every 5 games or so. Fangraphs ranks them based on RF/9, and based on that there's a 3-way tie: Joel Pinero, Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies), and Jon Garland (D-backs).

Last year's winners, for comparison:

1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Brandon Phillips
3B - David Wright
SS - Jimmy Rollins
C - Yadier Molina
OF - Carlos Beltran, Nate McLouth, Shane Victorino
P - Greg Maddux.

And finally, the 2009 Fielding Bible awards recognized the following National Leaguers: Albert Pujols (1B), Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Yadier Molina (C).

Kids Korner: Potty Training

2009-11-10T04:30:00.000-08:00

Because it is the off-season, and because my kids are hilarious, I thought I'd share some of the funnier things they do. I hope they use their comedic genius often enough to write about it weekly.

I have two young sons, and the oldest is of sufficient maturity it is time to potty train him. He isn't the most willing student in the world; he has the occasional accident with #1, and we won't discuss #2. His younger brother, however, has taken to potty training with gusto. Sometimes I think he was born to pee, because he seems to be in there every 5 minutes trying to squeeze out a drop or two.

Obviously using the toilet is a new experience for them. When they first started, they would tell us they had to go, and we would follow them into the bathroom to work on the litany:

- Pull pants down (this is very important, and sometimes gets overlooked).
- Lift the seat (my oldest has become proficient at hitting the water with the seat down and missing the seat. He's ready for submarine duty).
- Hit the water.
- Flush.
- Put the seat down.
- Wash hands. Who knew they'd love soap that much?
- DRY hands. Sometimes I think this is optional for people under the age of 10.
- Turn light off, which is definitely optional.

Now, being good parents, my wife and I are quite supportive. We would coach them through all this, and when they were successfully peeing we would applaud and say encouraging things like "Yeay!" "That's great!" "Good Job!" And so on.

Which has had an unintended side effect. Whenever I head into the bathroom, and close the door, my youngest barges right in to watch. To reinforce the litany, I'm sure. But while in progress, he'll cheer me on: "Yeay, Daddy!" Complete with applause.

Ever have stage fright? Come to my house. After hearing the little guy cheer you on, that problem will be solved.

Now on to the Off-Season

2009-11-06T10:00:00.000-08:00

Now that the World Series is over, and the Yankees have won (bought?) the title, we can start the off-season personnel shuffles in earnest. For the Cardinal fan, this will be a VERY interesting period to say the least. Already there's been movement in baseball:

- Bobby Abreu signed a 2 year, $19M deal to stay in Southern California;
- the Red Sox traded for OF Jeremy Hermida;
- and the Royals may have shipped Mark Teahen to Chicago's south side for Chris Getz and Josh Fields.

There's also been movement on the Cardinal front:

- Jarrett Hoffpauir was claimed by the Blue Jays. Hoffpauir had made his ML debut in 2009, and projected as a 2B. Looks like the organization is sticking with Schumaker long-term, which meant Hoffpauir was blocked at his natural position.

- Brad Thompson released. The baby-faced kid is a Cardinal no more. Thompson, a soft-tossing righty, was thought to have a future in the rotation when he first came up in 2005, but it didn't pan out. His FIP was always over 4 at the ML level (best year - 2008, 4.17), and he allowed a ton of baserunners. The team had done well in his starts (19-9) before this season, but he got beat up quite a bit in 2009. When your roster spot is 'long mop-up guy', you're expendable - as evidenced by his frequent-flier status between St Louis and Memphis last season. But hey, he's got a World Series ring. Best of luck, Brad.

- Six file for free agency. This list includes the expected suspects - Holliday, Ankiel, DeRosa, K. Greene, LaRue, Smoltz, and Glaus. Most expect Wellemeyer and Pineiro to file as well. Of the seven already declared, Holliday, LaRue, and possibly DeRosa/Smoltz have a chance to return in 2010. DeRosa, Glaus, and Pineiro will be Type B free agents, meaning the Cardinals would get a supplemental first-round draft pick should they sign with another team. Holliday most likely will be a Type A free agent, bringing a first round AND a supplemental first-round pick should he go elsewhere.

Derrick Goold poses the question: Which guys will be offered arbitration? My thoughts:

Holliday: Definitely.
DeRosa: Will Freese be ready to start at 3B on Opening Day? Will Holliday return to play LF? Those are the positions DeRosa would man if he returns. Given the amount of money Holliday will command if he stays, and what it will likely take to resign Pujols, I say no.
Glaus: No. He's coming off injury, and the Cardinals can't afford him should he accept.
Pineiro: Yes, but only if Smoltz doesn't re-sign. Why not? Pineiro returning wouldn't be bad thing at all. He thrived under Duncan in 2009, and he would be a functional piece to the 2010 rotation. It would leave only 1 rotation spot for a rookie, scratching LaRussa's 'preference for veterans' itch and lowering the team's risk with said rookie.

With that, we can take a look at the current 40-man roster:

1. Boggs
2. Carpenter
3. Franklin
4. Garcia
5. Hawksworth
6. Kinney
7. Lohse
8. McClellan
9. T. Miller
10. Motte
11. Reyes
12. Wainwright
13. Walters
14. Wellemeyer (?)
15. Molina
16. Pagnozzi
17. Freese
18. Pineiro (?)
19. T. Greene
20. Lugo
21. Pujols
22. Ryan
23. Schumaker
24. Ludwick
25. Mather
26. Rasmus
27. Robinson
28. Stavinhoa

Wow, twelve and probably thirteen slots open on the roster. How should Mozeliak manage this?

Off the cuff, I would leave two slots open. That gives the team flexibility to re-sign some of their free-agents before the Rule V draft on 10 December. I've assumed they'll sign a back up catcher (LaRue or someone else), and one of their free agents (I'm guessing Smoltz) before the Winter Meetings start 7 Dec.

That means moving 10 players onto the 40-man roster. Well, Derrick Goold is currently polling Cardinal Nation to create a top 21 prospect list headed into 2010. Seems like a good place to start.

That vote has ranked 12 prospects (add John Jay and Adam Ottavino to the list at the above link). Some of them are already on the 40-man. Let's just add the remaining names that aren't. That makes the 40-man roster look like this:

29. Shelby Miller
30. Allen Craig
31. Daryl Jones
32. Eduardo Sanchez
33. Lance Lynn
34. Daniel Descalso
35. John Jay
36. Adam Ottavino

Just for fun, let's add a couple of prospects to fill out #37 and #38:

37. Tyler Henley
38. Pete Kozma

Thoughts? I'd be interested in hearing them in the comments.

Will the Yankees pitch to Chase Utley?

2009-11-04T08:10:00.000-08:00

There's been a minor amount of hysteria regarding Chase Utley and his HR binge during this year's post season. The Yankees were widely recognized as having the appropriate medicine to neutralize Philadelphia's lefty-heavy power with Sabathia and Pettitte starting, and Marte/Coke relieving. And they've been largely successful:

Howard: 3-19, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 12K, .263 SLG
Ibanez: 5-20, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 BB, 9 K, .500 SLG

The exception to the rule is Utley (6-18, 5 HR, 8 RBI, 3BB, 3K, 1.222 SLG). His power numbers not only dwarf the rest of the lineup, but he's raised his game significantly in the post-season (17 career 2-HR games, 2 this season in 162 games, now 2 in 5 games). The other post-season records he's tied/broken are impressive:

- First LH batter to hit 2 HR in a game off a LH pitcher since Ruth did it in 1928
- New NL record for most home runs in a World Series (previously held by 4 different players)
- Tied ML record for most HR in a World Series (with Reggie Jackson)
- Most career WS HR by a second baseman (7)

Joe Girardi tends to overmanage, but at some point you'd think he'd stop pitching to Utley, especially with Howard struggling so mightily. Out of curiousity, how has Utley fared in men-in-scoring-position situations during the World Series? I'll also include the game situation for each of his HR.

HR #1 - Game One, 3rd inning, 0 on, 2 out (Sabathia).
HR #2 - Game One, 6th inning, 0 on, 1 out (Sabathia).
Game One, 8th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 out (vs Marte): Strikeout Looking.
Game One, 9th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 out (vs Coke): Flyout to deep RC.

Game Two, 3rd inning, runner on 2nd, 2 out (vs Burnett): Intentional Walk.
Game Two, 8th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, 1 out (vs Rivera): Double Play.

Game Three, 1st inning, runner on 2nd, 1 out (vs Pettitte): Strikeout Swinging.
Game Three, 2nd inning, runner on 2nd, 2 out (vs Pettitte): Strikeout Looking.

Game Four, 1st inning, runner on 2nd, 1 out (vs Sabathia): Double to RC, RBI.
Game Four, 5th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 out (vs Sabathia): Popout to short.
HR #3 - Game Four, 7th inning, 0 on, 2 out (Sabathia).

HR #4 - Game Five, 1st inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, 0 out (Burnett).
HR #5 - Game Five, 7th inning, 0 on, 0 out (Coke).

Four of Utley's 5 HR have come with no one on. He's had 9 at bats with a runner in scoring position during the series. Subtracting the intentional walk in Game 2 (after which Howard struck out), the Yankees have held Utley to a 2-8 performance.

I recognize this as a small sample size. Looking at his at bats with runners in scoring position, maybe one other instance (the second inning at bat in Game 3) would have lent itself to intentionally walking Utley, however Pettitte had struck Utley out in his first at bat, so he was allowed to attack Utley the second time around and got a strikeout then too. The Yankees weren't going to walk Utley in Game 5 given the way Howard kills RH pitching, and since it was the first frigging inning. So the Yankees have had success neutralizing Chase Utley with runners in scoring position.

Will the Yankees pitch around Utley tonight? As always, it's possible given the game situation at the time. However, the results through the first 5 games indicate the Yankees have done well against Utley with runners on base, so it would be perfectly understandable if they continued to attack him in those situations during Game 6.

Depressing

2009-11-01T21:10:00.000-08:00

Crappy Brad Lidge reared his ugly head tonight. Great at-bat by Damon started it. But once he stole second, and third thanks to the shift and Lidge sleeping, the end began. McCarver made a lot of hay discussing the slider, and how Lidge wasn't going to throw it with the tying run on third.

Lidge didn't, and he should have. But he went away from it during the end of the Damon at-bat. Damon got 4 straight fastballs, the last one he lined into LF for the single. I'm pretty sure Texieria got 3 fastballs as well, with the third one hitting him. I know A-Rod got 2. Lidge's slider is his best pitch. Seemed an odd choice he'd abandon it when he needed it most.

Not to sow the seeds of panic in Phillies fans, or fan their flames of doubt, but:

- The last team to recover from a 3-1 deficit in the World Series: 1985 Royals, and they had Games 6 and 7 at home.

- The last team to recover from a 3-1 deficit in the World Series, and win Games 6 and 7 on the road: 1968 Tigers, and they had a 30-game winner on the roster.

It's a cruel coincidence both those series involved the Cardinals.

The St Louis Rams

2009-10-30T09:32:00.000-07:00

I'll take a break from my normal wall-to-wall Cardinal coverage to talk about the Rams. The Rams are in the midst of a truly historic season. Not only are they 0-7, and arguably the worst team in the league, but they are building quite a legacy of awful.

Since the start of the 2007 season, they are 6-33. The Lions, losers of every game last season, are 8-32 over the same span.

Their offensive ineptitude has put them in range of two records for futility:

Fewest points scored, 16-game season: 143 (1991 Colts)
Fewest touchdowns scored, 16-game season: 14 (same Colts).

In 2009 the Rams have scored 60 points and 6 touchdowns. The Colt averaged 8.9 points per game in 1991; St Louis' average currently sits at 8.6.

I shield my face with my hands and watch this team through the space between my fingers to see if they'll break those two records.

Bloody Brilliant

2009-10-28T22:39:00.001-07:00

If Tim McClelland's blown double play call during ALCS Game 4 was the worst call in the history of umpiring, Jimmy Rollins' deke around second base in the bottom of the fifth ining, World Series Game 1, is the greatest piece of baseball deception in the history of the universe.

It was so good Robinson Cano ran hard to first even though he was already out.

It was soo good Hideki Matsui made no attempt to get back to first to avoid being doubled off.

It was sooo good the umpires had to confer for 5 minutes to make sure they understood what they saw.

It was soooo good 55K+ Yankee fans were completely fooled.

It was sooooo good Fox had to run through the replay 3x before they accurately reported what happened.

Yeah, that was awesome.

UCB Radio Hour TONIGHT - 8:00 pm Pacific (new time)

2009-10-28T08:39:00.000-07:00

A quick note that I will be hosting a 30 minute version of the UCB Radio Hour, along with Dan Shoptaw, tonight. The fun starts at 8 pm Pacific time.

Please note that's 30 min later than our usual start time. Hope you can join us! We've a lot to talk about:

- McGwire as hitting coach
- LaRussa, Duncan return
- Carpenter voted comeback player of the year by peers
- Wainwright voted most outstanding pitcher by peers
- Bill DeWitt III interview
- Roster construction

And whatever else comes up.

Mark McGwire Returns to the Crosshairs

2009-10-26T12:21:00.001-07:00

Man, what a strange off-season this has been so far. Nothing, absolutely nothing, on the Cardinal front for two weeks, straining the available subject matter for bloggers.

Then everything happens at the same time.

My Blogger Round Table Post.
My NL MVP award Post at the BBA site.
Interview with Bill DeWitt III this afternoon on the UCB radio show.

Then, the Cardinals announce the return of Tony LaRussa for 2010. Dave Duncan is expected to return as well, as is virtually all of the coaching staff. Except for the hitting instructor; Hal McRae to be replaced by Mark McGwire.

Wait, hold up: THAT Mark McGwire? Living in exile in Orange County these past 5 years, following his appearance before the Senate Select Committee on Steriod Use in Baseball?

Get ready for the firestorm and recrminiations, folks.

There will be lots of voices out there demanding McGwire come clean about his steroid use (see here), and some voices saying who cares if he doesn't talk about it (see here). You want my opinion? Either McGwire shouldn't talk about it at all, or he should say something like this:

"I was asked by Tony to be the hitting coach for the Cardinals. It's a great opportunity, and I'm grateful he thinks highly enough of me to ask me to be a coach. There are a lot of great hitters on this team, and I hope in some small way to make them better.

"Because I've been out of the spotlight for a number of years, and the allegations of my steriod use during my playing days, many in the media and general public believe that, as part of my stepping into this coaching position, I owe an updated answer on what, if any, supplements I used during my career. I'm here today to say I won't be responding to those questions, now or ever.

"Enough time has passed, and enough ink has been spilt speculating on what I did or did not do, that everyone who cares to form an opinion on this has. If I say 'Categorically, I didn't use steriods', some will believe it, some won't. If I state I used steroids, I won't be able to coach effectively because players can say 'I can't do what you did without cheating'. That's before and after the media and bloggers 'spit on my grave' over the statement.

"So you can print and believe whatever you want. I'm here to help this team be more productive offensively in 2010. Judge me on that, question me on that, not on what might or might not have happened while I was playing baseball in Oakland and St Louis."

(Update #1: Or, he could fly into a rage, flip the podium over, and tell everyone to kiss his not-as-big-as-it-used-to-be white ass. You know, whichever works for him.)

McGwire doesn't owe me an explanation and he doesn't owe the BBWAA an explanation. How they're going to vote on his HOF resume is already well documented; he's not going to change any minds now. What they should judge him on is his performance as a hitting instructor. I for one look forward to seeing what he can do in that regard.

Update #2: Some bonehead at Cards Clubhouse wondered why the Cardinals would hire a .263 career hitter. Consider:

- St Louis as a team ranked 18th in MLB in wOBA.
- McGwire has a career .415 wOBA.
- McGwire's average wOBA would have been fifth best in the majors in 2009.

Maybe that's why.

UCB topic - Blogger Round Table

2009-10-26T04:30:00.000-07:00

The United Cardinal Bloggers are in the midst of their semi-annual roundtable discussions. Our focus at this time of the year is on roster construction for next year. Or, at least, that's the gist the questions have taken.

Links to the transcripts for the first 4 questions can be found here.

Friday I posed the following topic for discussion:

Let's look at the starting rotation. Currently the Cardinals have 3 names penciled in for 2010: Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse. For the last two slots:

Do the Cardinals promote from within? Given LaRussa/Duncan's seeming preference for veteran arms in the rotation, is this a workable plan should they come back for 2010? Who has the best shot of winning a starting slot (and if you could estimate the odds or percent chance of someone making it, like Jamie Garcia - 80%, that'd be cool)?

Or, do the Cardinals sign a veteran arm on the cheap? How much would constitute cheap (years/dollars)? Who should they target?

It didn't generate as much discussion as I had thought/hoped, but anyway, here are some Cardinal Blogger opinions:

Dan (C70 at the Bat):I think, due to the two slots, the Cards do both.

I really think that John Smoltz is going to return to the Redbirds. If he wants to play, it'll be in St. Louis, probably on a one year deal. That takes care of your #4, at least initially. The odds of him making it through the whole season without some down time are pretty slim, but that's where he'll be Opening Day.

The fifth slot will be someone from within the organization. I think you are about right on with your example. I'd say there's at least an 80% chance that name is Jaime Garcia. He's the obvious frontrunner. It'll be interesting to see if bullpen stalwarts Kyle McClellan and Blake Hawksworth get a shot. I'd guess the odds of either one of them getting the job, though, are around 10%. There could be someone that impresses in the spring and wins the fifth starter slot, like a Lance Lynn, but I wouldn't count on it.

Nick (Pitchers Hit Eighth): In my mind, there are four names to fill the two slots. Jaime Garcia. Mitchell Boggs. PJ Walters. John Smoltz.

Garcia’s performance in his rehab from Tommy John surgery was very impressive, and another off-season of conditioning and preparation should put him in a fantastic position to win a rotation spot come spring. How nice will it be to have a lefty back in the rotation in St. Louis? I hesitate to be too bold, but I’d put Garcia’s chances of being in the 2010 rotation at about 95%.

Boggs and Walters are both in the same boat, in my opinion. Either one could put together a really strong spring and make a case for the rotation, or at least a Brad Thompson-ish role with long relief and spot starts out of the bullpen. Neither has created any distance from the other, nor really embarrassed. Chances of either one breaking camp in the rotation? 25%.

If Smoltz wants to pitch in 2010 (and it seems he does) and the Cards want him back as a starter, I envision it being an easy deal to get done. Probably a one year, $5mm contract or something similar. Smoltz could be a serviceable 4 or 5 while bridging the gap to some of the youngsters still developing (as well as providing some sage advice).

I hesitate to speculate on any other free agents that may be signed, because I feel like they have enough options internally or re-signing Smoltz that may preclude them from entering that market. As we are all aware, they are clearly focusing their payroll money elsewhere for the time being.

One wild card I want to throw out there… Mike Parisi. Parisi is also coming off of a Tommy John procedure, and is pitching out in Arizona. For some reason even unbeknownst to me, I’ve rooted for the guy since his first call-up with the big club. He apparently had the stuff at one time to warrant a promotion, and if his elbow is right, he just may surprise some folks. At the very least, expect his name to be discussed at spring training.

Following Nick's response, I followed up to the group with a specific question about going after Ben Sheets:

Just for the sake of argument, and realizing their money priorities are elsewhere, would Ben Sheets be someone they could consider? After a full year off, he might sign for $5M per year.

Unfortunately, no one had a chance to respond to that thought before we went to post.

Update: Josh from Pitchers Hit Eighth weighs in with:

For me the rotation is already set so I guess you can put my % at 99.9 just so I can be viciously laughed at in March.

I want Smoltz back in the 4th spot, just because he was one of the very few bright spots to the end the season. He is also a perfect player coach to keep Wainer grounded, Lohse thinking positive, and mentor for my fifth starter.

Garcia adds not only a lefty to the rotation but a shot of youth into a fairly vet-laden staff. Even Hawk has seemingly been around the Cards forever, so call it a competition with every and all Memphis starter for the remaining spot.

St. Louis a real chance to have all five starters in double digits with Garcia and a little luck on the health side. With that and LaDunc back in the fold, I smell a much longer run than just the NLDS.

Update #2 Matt from Fungoes adds:

While Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse are generally healthy, Chris Carpenter still represents a lot of risk in the injury department. As such, the Cardinals would be wise to hedge their bets with the rest of the rotation and aim for players without a lot of injury baggage (read: younger pitchers).

Furthermore, it seems doubtful that the team would be able to sign someone with as much upside as any of the pitchers currently in their system. Blake Hawksworth started a majority of his minor-league games, and though his BB and SO rates have declined in his last two minor-league seasons, he showed a Pineiro-like propensity for ground balls in his rookie campaign (53.8%). He'll need to improve on his BB rate and K/BB (1.33) rate, though, and his low HR rate was perhaps misleading due to a below-normal HR/FB rate (5.3%). Ditto Mitchell Boggs, who is in a similar position as Hawksworth and had a similarly unimpressive K/BB rate (1.39)

Jaime Garcia is probably the most talented of the in-system options, but may need some AAA time to sharpen his arsenal before returning to the bigs. If he doesn't come north out of camp, he'd be an excellent midseason addition and/or Carpenter fill-in. Another option would be for him to make the team as a midrange reliever.

Assuming Smoltz a) wants to pitch again, b) wants to do so for the Cardinals and c) wants less than his 2009 salary, he -- on an incentive-laden deal -- would be a fine choice for one of the open slots.

My personal thoughts on this are mixed. If John Smoltz really enjoyed his time as a Cardinal, and there's been nothing (to my knowledge) indicating he didn't, then bringing him back on the cheap is a distinct possibility. He signed a 1-year, $5.5M contract to play with Boston in 2009. I would think something in that ball park, with the $5.5M figure being as high as the Cardinals would go, would get him in the rotation for 2010.

However, as Nick accurately points out, the Cardinals intend to spend their money elsewhere this off-season, so there might not be enough cash available to sign Smoltz. In that case they build from within. Jamie Garcia is the popular name to throw out as an early front-runner for a slot, but it will come down to who performs in Spring Training. I would expect Kyle McClellan, Blake Hawksworth, Brad Thompson, PJ Walters, Garcia, and probably someone we don't know yet to compete for the two open slots.

Regarding my follow-up question: I think Sheets would need to be approached much like Smoltz might be - with a max salary ceiling of about $5M for a 1-year deal. I would think, after a year off, Sheets would want a short-term deal just to re-establish his bona fides as a legitimate Staff Ace, then seek fame and fortune elsewhere. Why not sign with a playoff contender?

As always, your comments are welcome.

BREAKING: Bill DeWitt III to appear on the UCB Radio Hour

2009-10-23T15:54:00.000-07:00

I just got word from Dan at Cardinal 70 that St Louis Cardinals team president Bill DeWitt III will appear on a special edition of the UCB Radio Hour Monday, 26 October, at 3:30 pm Pacific time.

As always, if you have a question you'd like to propose we ask Mr. DeWitt, leave it in the comments or email it to me at stanmusialsstance@yahoo.com.

Not sure how much time Mr. DeWitt will be able to give us, so I can't guarantee all questions will get on the air, but we'll try.

I'm pretty excited about this. I know Dan is too. Not often the 'common man' gets a chance to interview someone this high up in any organization.

Link to the UCB Radio Hour page
Link to C70 at the Bat
Bill DeWitt bio

The Post Where I Agree With Everybody

2009-10-23T08:41:00.000-07:00

Much like Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs, I'm glad the Angels won last night. This means there'll be baseball on Saturday night. In my Plato-ideal world, the California Angels will win tomorrow night too, forcing baseball on Sunday.

At some level, the AL teams should be happy their ALCS is extended another game, shortening the time off they will have between the conclusion of this series and the start of the World Series. Remember the 2006 Tigers? They had a week off, and it showed during their WS loss to St Louis - they were rusty. Hard to believe after a 6-month season a team could get that far out of whack with 7 days off, but remember: the only break of comparable length is the 4 days off around the All-Star Break. These guys are used to playing every day.

Which is another reason why the long breaks between series, and the indefensible off-day between Games 4 and 5 of the LCS, is so exasperating. I believe MLB is actually hurting the competitive nature of the playoffs by artifically extending the schedule. No I don't have any hard statistical evidence to back that up; I hope to develop this thesis during the off-season. But philosophically, here's the jist of my argument. If MLB teams craft their rosters to compete over a 162-game season, negate that team aspect of the game during the post-season? Specifically with starting pitching. I don't know if this will just be me proposing another unpopular opinion that has no basis in fact. But I hope to soon.

Phillies the best team in the NL. Obviously we say that now since they've won the League title. But based on how the playoffs played out, Philadelphia has the best team. Best lineup, best pitching staff, deepest bench, solidifying bullpen. If the NL is to win the World Series for the third time in 4 years, this Philadelphia team gives the league its best shot. And for those who think the Yankees will win the LCS and roll over the NL in the Series: I believe this will be a better Series than you do. I believe it will go at least 6. And I believe the Phillies has a good shot at repeating.

Oh, the wonders of pitch selection. In two key situations during the ALCS, the pitch thrown has made me question what the pitcher/catcher were thinking. The first was the 0-2 fastball Fuentes left up in the zone to A-Rod in Game 2. I still can't get over this. Behind A-Rod was Guzman and Gardner. A-Rod was the only bat in that inning that had even a remote chance of hurting the Angels (of the three scheduled hitters). YOU'RE AHEAD 0-2. Why throw him anything in the strike zone, especially after throwing 2 fastballs for strikes. Now, A-Rod might have gotten a pitch later in the at-bat to hit; we don't know. But that pitch was ridiculous.

The other was Hughes' 1-2 fastball to Vladimir Guerrero last night. Tim McCarver went on and on about how lousy this pitch choice was, especially after Guerrero looked really bad on the 1-1 curveball the pitch before. As near as I can tell, of the 18 pitches Hughes threw in the seventh 3 were curveballs, and on all three he got a swinging strike (I can't seem to get GameDay on MLB.com to come up from work. Crap.). Seeing as Guerrero is a dead fastball hitter, WHY throw a fastball in that count? And as it turned out, why throw a straight 4-seam fastball in that count?

Intentional Walks. Joe Posnanski is on record for hating the intentional walk on principle, in almost any instance. I've never thought much about the intentional walk per se; I believe there are times when it is called for, if used properly. However, I don't believe Fuentes' intentional walk of A-Rod was one of those times. Why? Because:

- There were two outs in the ninth and no one on.
- Scioscia basically admitted, 'I don't trust my highly-paid closer to get A-Rod out with the game on the line.' What happens when, tomorrow or Sunday night, Fuentes has to get A-Rod out with no where to put him? Is Scioscia going to take Fuentes out in that situation?
- It seemed to get into Fuentes' head. He couldn't find the plate to the next two hitters, walking Matsui and hitting Cano. He jumped ahead 0-2 to Swisher because Swisher went to the plate with his head up his ass. I mean, seriously: Fuentes suddenly has command issues, so why are you hacking at the first two things he throws up there?

The Angels were lucky to survive and win last night's game.

At any rate, the UCB is conducting a round-robin this week. I'll have a question and responses up on Monday here and at the UCB Home Page. Also, the BBA is voting on MVPs, so I'll have that story up over there Monday as well (there'll be a link to the BBA site here Monday afternoon).

BBA Topic: The Cy Young

2009-10-19T04:30:00.000-07:00

One of the cool things that has happened to me over the four years of writing here is the chance to interact with other passionate fans of baseball. Recently I joined the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA), which gives me the chance to interact with bloggers from across Major League Baseball, in addition to the knowledgeable Cardinal bloggers you're used to me talking about here.

The BBA is leveraging that knowledge to suggest winners of the various end of the year baseball awards, and posting those stories both on their home blogs, and at the Alliance web site. Already the group has discussed NL and AL Managers of the Year and Rookies of the Year. Next will be the Cy Young, and the MVP, of each league, and I have the opportunity to offer an opinion on both.

National League Cy Young

We'll start with the NL because that's the home league of this blog. I've long thought the NL Cy Young will be awarded to one of three men: Tim Lincecum of San Francisco, or Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright of St Louis. Looking at specific accomplishments and NL pitching statistics, Javier Vasquez of Atlanta was a surprise addition to the discussion. Let's get into the specifics, starting with the standard metrics.

Wins
Wainwright - 19
Carpenter - 17
Lincecum - 15
Vasquez - 15

Strikeouts
Lincecum - 261
Vasquez - 238
Wainwright - 212
Carpenter - 144

ERA
Carpenter - 2.24
Lincecum - 2.48
Wainwright - 2.63
Vasquez - 2.87

If you needed another reason to think wins isn't a great metric anymore for deciding who the best pitcher in the league is, Bronson Arroyo finished with 15 wins. Anyway, using the standard measuring sticks, each of the contenders led in one of the categories. We're going to need some additional fidelity. The advanced statistics I looked at were ERA+, FIP, and WAR. ERA+ turned out to not be that great a choice, because the rankings using that metric matched those for ERA by itself. So what about Fielding Independent Pitching, and Wins Above Replacement?

FIP
Lincecum 2.34
Vasquez 2.77
Carpenter 2.78
Wainwright 3.11

WAR
Lincecum 8.2
Vasquez 6.6
Wainwright 5.7
Carpenter 5.6

Based on these two metrics, Lincecum was the best pitcher in the National League in 2009. Vasquez pitched better than his ERA would lead you to believe; his defense actually cost him (his ERA is higher than his FIP). So, in a bit of an upset for a Cardinal blogger, my NL Cy Young votes are Lincecum (1), Javier Vasquez (2), Carpenter (3), Wainwright (4).

American League Cy Young

Most observers think Zack Grienke was the best pitcher in the American League this year. Let's see if the same statistics back that up.

Wins
Hernandez - 19
Verlander - 19
Sabathia - 19
Halladay - 17
Grienke - 16

Strikeouts
Verlander - 269
Grienke - 242
Lester - 225
Hernandez - 217
Halladay - 208
Sabathia - 197

ERA
Grienke - 2.16
Hernandez - 2.49
Halladay - 2.79
Sabathia - 3.37
Lester - 3.41

FIP
Grienke - 2.33
Verlander - 2.80
Halladay - 3.06
Hernandez - 3.09
Lester - 3.15
Sabathia - 3.39

WAR
Grienke - 9.4
Verlander - 8.2
Halladay - 7.3
Hernandez - 6.9
Lester - 6.0
Sabathia - 5.9

Lincecum may have been the best starting pitcher in the NL, but Zack Grienke was the best starting pitcher in baseball based on FIP and WAR. I think these selected statisics, when compared to the standard set, bring home how much of a penalty Grienke paid for playing on a lousy Royals team. Verlander had a better year than I thought, as did Jon Lester; Sabathia, who is a good pitcher, and is pitching well in the post-season, wasn't as good as the rest of the guys on the list.

I will give a little more weight to pitchers who worked for teams finishing below .500. Felix Hernandez had a phenomenal year for Seattle. If Halladay had continued to pitch as well after 31 July as he did before the All-Star break, this would have been a much closer vote for first. So, based on these numbers, my vote for 2009 AL Cy Young are Grienke (1), Hernandez (2), Verlander (3), Halladay (4), Lester (5), Sabathia (6).

Discuss amongst yourselves. I look forward to your comments.

Well... So Much For That

2009-10-14T07:39:00.000-07:00

First, a Public Service Announcement: the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour will continue on through the off-season, at least for now, and specifically for tonight. Dan Shoptaw will host today's show, scheduled for 7:30 PM Pacific time. Adjust your schedules accordingly. I hope to dial in and talk with him, as always, but that's contingent on a few other things lining up tonight.

It's been 4 days since the Cardinal season finished with a thud. I thought the Cardinals had a good chance of winning this series. I remember looking at various predictions of the NLDS, both at ESPN, CBS Sportsline, and other places, and virtually everyone picked the Cardinals to win in 4 or 5 games. That kind of uniform thought started me thinking something had been missed. For me, I didn't fully appreciate, until the series was over, how razor-thin the Cardinals' margin for error was. Their roster contained 4 players - Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, and Holliday - who in 2009 were arguably better than anyone the Dodgers could run out there at any position. However, looking at roster slots 5-25, the Dodgers were better. Better bullpen, better bench, better.

In order for the Cardinals to have won that series, their 4 studs had to play at their A-game level every game. Objective analysis indicates only Wainwright succeeded (8 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K). AP (3-10, zero extra base hits) was largely neutralized, Holliday had a HR in Game 2 but was 1-11 otherwise, and Carpenter pitched poorly. With 3 of their 4 big guns scuffling, the team just didn't have enough to compensate.

I think the fact Troy Glaus got 2 post-season at bats underscores that point.

I said before Game 3, that when you find yourself pinning all hope to Joel Piniero (after August 1: 4.64 ERA, .738 OPS against), you're in trouble.

So the off-season started Sunday. I would expect there won't be much activity on any front until after the playoffs end around Christmas. As an aside, isn't is asinine all 4 LDS series are over but we still have to way until tomorrow for the LCS round to start? The Yankees will have had 5 days off between games, the Angels 4, the Dodgers 4, the Phillies 3. Why can't MLB run their playoffs like hockey does - once the two series winners are known, start the next round no more than 2 days later. All the excitement that had been generated last week is gone. No wonder MLB is losing the next generation of fans.

There are already reports that Ankiel probably won't be re-signed. Dave Duncan is leaning towards returning if LaRussa returns. LaRussa hasn't decided if he wants to manage yet next year. Then there's Molina being sued for failure to make contracted autograph appearances and other minutiae.

Anyway. This will be the fourth off-season for the ol' blog. I've got some things lined up - there are Baseball Bloggers Alliance award justifications to write, a fantasy baseball wrap, roster analysis, and so on - that will be up over the coming days/weeks. Not to mention stories as warranted about the ongoing playoffs. So check back - hopefully you'll find something worth reading.

NLDS Game 2 Recap - Dodgers Get Early Holliday Present

2009-10-08T21:41:00.001-07:00

It's been a number of hours since the ninth inning unfolded, which is enough time to reflect. It looked, on the replay, like Holliday lost the ball as it descended. He said as much after the game. I haven't played a lot of baseball recently, but I still play a LOT of softball, and I can completely understand what Holliday went through. When a ball gets lost in the lights or in the sun, you put your glove up where you think the ball is going to come down and hope it lands in your glove.

Most of the post game reaction around the Cardinal blogs and sites I frequent focused in on Holliday's failure to catch that ball. And make no mistake, it was a big play. But it wasn't the only play that led to the 3-2 loss.

- After Holliday's HR, Ludwick and Molina singled. But DeRosa struck out and Rasmus hit into a double play to end the threat.

- Again numerous runners left on base. St Louis was oh for nine with runners in scoring position.

- Rasmus getting thrown out at third in the seventh. Yes, he was being aggressive, and yes Loney made a great play to cut the throw off and nail Rasmus at third. But there was no one out when Rasmus rapped the double - why try to take the extra base, with Wainwright on deck? One, Adam would probably be asked to sacrifice and get Rasmus to third. Two, even if he can't get Rasmus over, Rasmus is one of the fastest men on the roster; I still feel good about my chances.

Now, it's impossible to predict how the rest of that inning would have played out, but just for argument's sake. Wainwright sacrifices Rasmus to third. Torre, who's watched Wainwright manhandle his lineup, brings the infield in. Lugo's single scores Rasmus to give St Louis a 3-1 lead. Inning develops from there.

- Then we get to the ninth. Even after Holliday muffed the ball, there were still 2 outs, and the Cardinals still had the lead. But the Cardinals self-destructed. Give Blake credit for the nine-pitch at bat that turned into a walk. Franklin lays a pitch in to Belliard who sends it back up the middle. The passed ball. The walk to Martin. The Loretta jam job hit. Ball Game.

St Louis had, arguably, two of the best 3 pitchers in the NL this season. They lost both games with those guys on the mound. It's a huge hill they have to climb now.

Let me leave you with some hope. On October 11, 1985, the Cardinals flew back to St Louis down 0-2 to the Dodgers. They had played poorly in the first two games, and looked dead in the water. They came back to win all their home games and the series. That's what this team needs to do.

Colleen Dominguez reported on SportsCenter (at 2214 Thursday night) that Adam Wainwright said, "If anyone thinks this series is over - think again." Enough said.

NLDS Game 1 Recap - Gridlock

2009-10-08T08:07:00.000-07:00

One of the biggest concerns I had going into the playoffs was the Cardinals' offense, in that as a team they had trouble getting guys on base. Well, much like the traffic in Southern California streaming onto the highway, St Louis really had no issues getting guys on last night. Bringing them around became another matter; again just like traffic in So Cal during rush hour, Cardinal baserunners just sat there. Fourteen baserunners left on. Ouch.

On a night when Chris Carpenter clearly did not have his best stuff - I can't remember him recently leaving as many pitches over the middle of the plate as he did in the first inning - a lift from the offense would have really helped. Didn't happen.

Some thoughts from last night:

1. Four. Hours. Post-season baseball, everybody!

2. St Louis had two early chances to hammer Randy Wolf, and let them slip away. The first three Cardinal hitters reached to start the game and only one scored. Molina's DP was a killer, although Holliday striking out looking was the out that turned that inning for the Dodgers. Then the Dodgers assisted by helping St Louis load the bases in the fourth (AP intentional walk, Holliday hit by pitch). But Ludwick let that get away with a weak tap to the pitcher. I know he's down 0-2 and needed to protect, but from my living room Weaver's pitch looked clearly outside; why offer at it?

3. I evaluated the Cardinal bullpen as better than the Dodger pen based on IP and % of inherited runners scoring. Last night:

Dodger bullpen: 5 1/3 IP, 2 hits, 5 K. They would have held the Cardinals scoreless except for a horrendous decision by Matt Kemp on DeRosa's ball in the ninth.

Cardinal bullpen: 3 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 3 K. High wire act. The fact they only gave up 1 run was something of a miracle.

Advantage Dodgers.

4. Why pinch hit Glaus for Rasmus with 2 on and 2 out in the seventh? Consider this:

Rasmus vs Kuo (career): 0-2, 2K
Glaus vs Kuo (career, before last night's AB): 0-3, K, BB.

Rasmus vs LH (career): .160/.219/.255 in 115 PA
Glaus vs LH (2009): 4 PA, 0-3. Career: .277/.399/.578 (1523 PA).

Yes Kuo is a lefty and Glaus a righty. However, IMHO, Glaus hitting there was more of a genuflection at the altar of 'The Book' then a smart baseball move. Why do I think it wasn't a smart substitution? Because Glaus' been hurt all year and has faced virtually no LH pitching in 2009. He couldn't get around on the high gas, and the one pitch he had to hit he fouled straight back. Rust. Oh, well.

5. On that note, how short handed the Cardinals are on the bench was never more evident than watching Glaus hit in the seventh, then waiting for the inevitable Ankiel strikeout to end the game.

6. Did DeRosa air mail that throw to second in the third inning or what? It was so bad a throw it was funny. Too bad, because he made a great play to get to Blake's ball in the first place.

7. You know it's not your night when Pierre screws up the sac bunt, but Molina can't field it cleanly and then can't get Belliard at third. Molina's frustration was clear on the replay.

8. One final reason for renewing your Maalox prescription. This is LaRussa's eighth NLDS as Cardinal manager. How did he fare in the previous 7 Game 1's?

1996 - Beat San Diego (home), won series 3-0
2000 - Beat Atlanta (home), won series 3-0
2001 - Lost to Arizona (road), lost series 2-3
2002 - Beat Arizona (home), won series 3-0
2004 - Beat Los Angeles (home), won series 3-0
2005 - Beat San Diego (home), won series 3-1
2006 - Beat San Diego (road), won series 3-1

Yep - the only NLDS LaRussa's lost as the Cardinals manager started with a loss on the road in Game 1. Granted they lost that NLDS largely because the Cardinal bullpen collapsed in the seventh inning of Game 3, and the Cardinals provided 1 run of support in Matt Morris' two spectacular starts, but still.

Most prognosticators, myself included, looked at last night's starters and penciled Carpenter in for a win. Didn't happen. Now, we have the best pitching matchup of the series - Wainwright vs Kershaw - and need to win. Make no mistake, tonight is a must win for St Louis. Wainwright better bring his A+ game. If he's the best pitcher this season, we need him now.

Otherwise, the Cardinals will turn to Pineiro and Lohse to save their season. I think we're all pretty OK with Pineiro starting Game 3 in St Louis, but given the physical issues Lohse has fought all year, sending this series back to LA would be a tall order indeed.

We need you Adam.

Steve Phillips - open mouth, insert foot

2009-10-07T21:41:00.000-07:00

I love the NLDS round, because games are actually played during the day. Which means I can follow the games on line at work (work allowing, of course), and listen to the games during the drive home. Tonight I spent about 25 minutes in the car, so I heard the beginning of the Yankees/Twins game.

And in those 25 minutes, Steve Phillips managed to say three dumb things. Three! He must be the most limber man in America, because his foot is always in his mouth.

To wit:

(a) Steve and his broadcast partner, the normally savvy John Miller, were discussing Justin Morneau's absence and how the Twins have played very well since Morneau went down for the season with a stress fracture in his back. Phillips commented that Kubel (who led the Twins in RBI this year, by the way) had been the DH while Morneau was in the lineup, but now that Morneau was out Kubel had shifted to the OF because Cuddyer was now at first. Then the money comment (paraphrased; remember I was driving): and that puts your power in the field, which is not what you want to do.

Apparently, according to Phillips, teams would be better off if their best hitters only had to concentrate on hitting and not that pesky fielding thing. I guess this is why the NL is considered inferior.

Of course, the BEST HITTER IN BASEBALL currently plays first base for the Cardinals, which would seem to blow a hole in this theory. Strike One.

(b) I think Jorge Posada is a future Hall of Famer. Wow. Just wow. Posada has never won an MVP (he's received votes twice, finishing 6th in 2007 and 3rd in 2003) and never won a gold glove behind the plate. He's won the All-Star popularity contest 5 times, which is not a good metric for HOF worthiness anyway. He has won the catcher Silver Slugger 5 times, which is noteworthy.

Posada's career line: .277/.379/.480. Know who Baseball Reference compares him to? Rich Aurilia, Ken Caminiti, Jose Valentin, Mickey Tettleton, Mike Lieberthal, and Joe Ferguson. None of those guys will ever be included in a document listing potential Hall of Famers.

Playing for the New York Yankees, by itself, does not qualify a player for the HOF. Strike Two.

(c) Regarding Robinson Cano (paraphrasing) - what a luxury to have a guy like this hitting seventh, with his 200 hits and 25 HR. He can hit higher in the order.

The reason Cano is hitting seventh is because his OBP is eighth best of the 2009 Yankee starters. Yep, of the regulars, only Melky Cabrera (.336) has a lower OBP. Cano had a great year, and one could argue it was a career year, although his 2006 and 2007 seasons are comparable. But let's give Girardi credit for understanding on-base percentage and crafting his lineup accordingly.

Cano hits low in the Yankee order because that's where his OBP dictates he should hit. Strike Three.

Enjoy the Sole Sandwich, Steve.

NLDS Preview - Los Angeles

2009-10-07T04:30:00.000-07:00

At long last, the second season is upon us. St Louis will play the Dodgers in the NLDS. Winner gets the winner of Philadelphia/Colorado. Loser thinks of ‘what might have been’.

Los Angeles has been the best team in the National League this season. St Louis turned a fantastic run from late July through early September into a National League Central Crown.

End of the Year Snapshot

St Louis: NL Central Champions, but lost 8 of their last 10 games, including getting swept at home by Milwaukee.

Los Angeles: NL West Champions, best record in the league. Lost 6 of their last 10 games, but won on Saturday and Sunday.

Playoff History

The Cardinals and Dodgers have met three times in the playoffs since the advent of the divisional format in 1969. They played a memorable NLCS in 1985, won by St Louis in 6, which included two of the more memorable HRs hit in Cardinal playoff history – the ‘Go Crazy, Folks!’ Ozzie Smith HR to win Game 5, and Tommy Lasorda’s famous last words to Tom Niedenfuer (‘Don’t give him anything good to hit’), which led to a fat fastball deposited high up the LF bleachers by Jack Clark. They’ve met twice in the Divisional round – 2004 (Cardinal sweep), and 2005 (Cardinals in 4).

So to summarize: 3 series, all won by St Louis. St Louis is 3-3 in Chavez Ravine and 7-0 in St Louis against the Dodgers.

Team Metrics

wOBA. Los Angeles finished tied for 4th in the NL in weighted On Base Average. Ronnie Belliard (.446), Manny (.396), Andre Ethier (.370), and Matt Kemp (.367) lead the way for the Dodgers. It will be interesting to see if Joe Torre continues to play Belliard over Orlando Hudson (.342). Guys dragging them down include the formerly formidable Russell Martin (.307), Blake DeWitt (.271), and Mark Loretta (.265).

St Louis finished 8th in the league, paced by Albert Pujols (.449). Of the potential starters Holliday (.423), Molina (.337), and Schumaker (.336) come next. Julio Lugo (.351) has put up good numbers, but as we’ll see, his defense is, shall we say, suspect. Guys not getting on include Rasmus (.311) DeRosa (.304), and Ankiel (.288). LaRussa hasn’t gotten much out of CF with the bat this season.

Just for the heck of it, here’s a comparision of individual hitters (standard AVG / OBP / SLG format) by position.

1B Loney (.281/.357/.399) Pujols (.327/.443/.658)
2B Belliard (.351/.398/.636) Schumaker (.302/.364/.393)
3B Blake (.280/.363/.468) DeRosa (.228/.291/.405)
SS Furcal (.269/.335/.375) Ryan (.292/.340/.400)
C Martin (.250/.352/.329) Molina (.293/.366/.383)
LF Ramirez (.290/.418/.531) Holliday (.353/.419/.604)
CF Kemp (.297/.352/.490) Rasmus (.251/.307/.407)
RF Ethier (.272/.366/.508) Ludwick (.265/.329/.447)
PH Thome (.249/.366/.481) Ankiel (.231/.285/.387)
BN Hudson (.283/.357/.417) Lugo (.281/.357/.399)
BN Pierre (.308/.365/.392)

Comments. Thome’s numbers are for his time with the Chisox and Dodgers, since he only has 32 PA as a Dodger. Lugo’s numbers are with the Cardinals only, he has 170 PA. Belliard is hitting WAY over his head (career line: .275/.339/.418). He is the hot hand at the moment, but I wouldn’t expect it to continue in the playoffs and I would expect Hudson to get playing time. The Cardinals have no real threat off the bench, especially from the right side. Ankiel has not been a good hitter this season and is unreliable at best as a pinch hitter. Your right side options are LaRue, Lugo, Glaus, and Thurston. Wow.

Lineups are a wash. LA has the better bench. Advantage LA.

UZR. LA is 7th in fielding based on UZR, with a 4.4 rating. STL comes in just behind them (8th), but with a -8.0 rating. If we normalize the defensive metric to UZR/150, the Cardinals and Dodgers switch places (-1.2 to -0.2, respectively). In other words, they are average defensively.

Let’s look at individual fielders:

1B Loney (1.5) Pujols (1.8)
2B Belliard (-0.9)/Hudson (-4.1) Schumaker (-4.9)
3B Blake (7.6) DeRosa (-0.2)
SS Furcal (8.1) Ryan (12.4)
C Martin (.994 fielding pct) Molina (.995 fielding pct)
LF Ramirez (-7.8) Holliday (-1.8)
CF Kemp (4.4)/Pierre (6.2) Rasmus (9.2)/Ankiel (6.4)
RF Ethier (-14.1) Ludwick (1.5)

The Dodgers are better at 2B, but frankly that’s not a surprise seeing as Schumaker is playing his first season as a middle infielder. DeRosa has been average at 3B (LF/2B are his natural positions), and Blake is pretty good with the glove. However, St Louis has defensive advantages everywhere else on the diamond. UZR is not calculated for catchers, so I went with the archaic fielding percentage. Two interesting things stand out:

- Loney has been Pujols’ peer with the glove this season
- Ethier is a terrible defensive RF.

Give the edge to St Louis. The Cardinals are a better defensive club.

FIP. Fielding Independent Pitching gives a better measure of pitching prowess than ERA, because it (as the name implies) attempts to take the defense effect out of the equation. The mathematical definition can be found here.

The Dodgers and Cardinals are a virtual dead heat in FIP, 3.80 to 3.82, respectively. How do the starters stack up?

1 Wolf (3.96) Carpenter (2.78)
2 Kershaw (3.08) Wainwright (3.11)
3 Padilla (3.40) Pineiro (3.28)
4? Billingsley (3.82) Lohse (4.55)

Very similar starting staffs. Here’s another argument for using Smoltz in the rotation instead of Lohse: Smoltz’s FIP is 2.73 as a Cardinal.

Bullpens. Looking at the bullpens, I evaluated innings pitched and stranded runner percentage for each. To me, stranded runner percentage is a better metric of how good a bullpen is; if they can prevent inherited runners from scoring, they are pretty effective. Innings pitched gives some indication of how tired the pen is, and perhaps whether or not their effectiveness will be diminished.

LA: 553 IP (2nd most in NL to San Diego), 71% of inherited runners stranded (6th in NL)
STL: 437 IP (lowest in NL), 77% of inherited runners stranded (best in NL).

Managers

Joe Torre. This will be his second foray into the playoffs as the Dodgers’ manager. As you probably recall, he advanced to the NLCS last year, but lost to Philadelphia and was really derailed by Matt Stairs’ mammoth HR in game 5. He’s been to the playoffs 15 times via 13 division titles (1 with ATL, 10 with NYY, 2 with LA), and 2 wild cards (both with the Yankees). He’s also been to the playoffs for 14 consecutive years as a manager, which I believe ties Bobby Cox’s major league record. He hasn’t won a league pennant since 2003, and last year was the first time since 2004 he’d taken his team to the LCS. A savvy, experienced manager, Torre’s won 6 League Championships and 4 World Series, all with the Yankees.

Tony LaRussa. LaRussa returns to the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 2006. This will be his 13th post-season appearance overall. Tony’s had a lot of success in the Divisional Round, but not so much at the LCS/WS level, however, he does have 5 League Championships and 2 World Series titles to his credit (3 and 1 with Oakland, 2 and 1 with the Cardinals). There’s not much, if anything, Joe Torre can dream up that LaRussa hasn’t either thought of or implemented.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24) vs Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23).
Carpenter: 37-24 career on 5 days rest. He’s never lost to the Dodgers (5-0, 2.24), and won both starts against them in 2009. In Chavez Ravine, he’s 2-0, but with a 4.85 ERA – and that’s including his 8-inning, 1 run masterpiece on August 17. He has handled the current Dodger roster – .216/.282/.344 against in 245 PA. Best hitters against him: Manny (.267/.371/.533, 2 HR) and Thome (.292/.393/.708, also 2 HR).

Wolf: Left-handed pitcher. Pitching on regular rest (58-49 career on 4 days rest). He’s 3-5, 3.64 career vs St Louis, and 4-3, 3.63 in 18 starts at home in 2009. He faced the Cardinals once in 2009, losing in St Louis on July 27. Best Cardinal hitters against him: AP (.313/.368/.375), and Holliday (.313/.389/.688, HR). Cardinals as a team have hit .255/.331/.362 in 162 PA.

Game 2: Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63) vs Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79). Rematch of 19 August game won by St Louis.
Wainwright: 15-9 career on 5 days rest. He faced the Dodgers twice in 2009, winning in St Louis on July 28, getting no decision in LA on August 19. Career he’s 2-2, 3.13 against the Dodgers, but 1-1, 5.60 in the smog. Best Dodgers against him: Furcal (.438/.438/.563), Martin (.500/.563/.643), and Belliard (.400/.400/.700, HR). Dodgers as a team are .257/.297/.414 in 149 PA.

Kershaw: Left-handed pitcher working on regular rest (8-5, 3.13 in 30 starts on 4 days rest). Kershaw’s .3-4, 1.83 ERA at home this season. He’s not lost to the Cardinals (1-0, 1.82 ERA in 4 starts), and faced them twice this season, getting no decision in both starts (July 29 and August 19). Best Cardinal hitters against him are Holliday (.400/.571/.400), and AP (.571/.727/.857 – 4 for 7). Cardinals as a team are .216/.326/.257 in 88 PA.

Game 3: Vincente Padilla (4-0, 3.20 as a Dodger) vs Joel Pineiro (15-12, 3.53).
Padilla: The Dodger Padilla more closely resembles the 2002 version as opposed to the Texas Ranger version. He’s 24-22, 4.56 career on 5 days rest. He did not face the Cardinals in 2009, and hasn’t started a game against St Louis since August 15 2003. That’s also the last time he faced them. The Cardinals have only 73 PA against him. AP is 4-9.

Pineiro: 31-25, 4.08 career on 5 days rest. Pineiro is 2-0, 3.38 career (3 starts) against the Dodgers, and 7-6, 2.87 this year at Busch. Joel beat the Dodgers in St Louis on July 27. Manny has owned him (.424/.560/.788, 4 HR), and Blake (.450/.476/.750, HR) likes his pitches too. As a team the Dodgers have hit .305/.340/.463 in 201 PA.

Game 4 (if needed): Chad Billingsley (12-11. 4.03) vs John Smoltz (3-8, 6.35)
Billingsley: Hasn’t pitched since September 29. On 6 or more days of rest, he’s 5-2, 3.76 in 8 starts. He’s 1-2, 4.40 in 6 games (5 starts) against St Louis, and was 1-1, 6.17 this season against the Cardinals. His loss came in St Louis on July 28. He’s never won in St Louis. Only Yadier is hitting over .300 off Billingsley, but Matt Holliday has hit 3 HR off Chad. Cardinals are .212/.330/.376 in 101 PA.

Smoltz: Consider this a strenuous vote for Smoltz to start Game 4 if LaRussa goes with 4 starters. I think the body of his playoff work, as well as his much better FIP this season, make him a better fit at this point. Smoltz did not face the Dodgers in 2009. Career he’s 16-14, 2.89 against LA, and 1-1, 3.12 ERA in 4 starts at Neo-Busch. Current Dodgers are hitting .268/.301/.401 in 169 PA; Thome has 4 HR and Hudson is 4-9 against him.

This should be a great series. I can’t wait – let’s START already!

Comeback Player of the Year and Roster moves

2009-10-06T04:30:00.000-07:00

Chris Carpenter's outstanding season has been recognized by Major League Baseball with his selection as NL Comeback Player of the Year. Carp put aside all the questions about his health this season and won 17 games, led the majors in winning percentage (.810), and led the NL in ERA (2.24) and ERA+ (185).

Carp also had a 3.79 strikeout-to-walk ratio (144 K vs 38 BB), and allowed 7 home runs this season. Seven. The same number he allowed as a 22 year old rookie in half a season with Toronto. Braden Looper allowed five times that many.

Congratulations, Chris. I hope that's not the end of the post season awards for him.

The Cardinals are finalizing their post-season roster, and although some slots remain to be decided upon, the Post-Dispatch is reporting Khalil Greene has been left off the roster. Khalil did not have a good season by any measure, and would not have contributed much in the playoffs. It's curious he was replaced on the roster by Troy Glaus, who hasn't exactly lit it up either (.250 OBP? Two XBH in 32 PA?). A bench of Jason LaRue, Julio Lugo, Rick Ankiel, Joe Thurston, and Troy Glaus won't strike fear in the hearts of Joe Torre, Charlie Manuel, and Jim Tracy. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have many other attractive options for the bench.

Thirteen position players leaves 12 pitchers. Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Pineiro, Smoltz, Franklin, Miller, Motte, McClellan, and Reyes are most likely locks to make the squad. That leaves Hawksworth, Boggs, Wellemeyer, and Thompson for the last two slots.

There's no good reason to include Wellemeyer on the roster. He has been awful this season both as a starter and a reliever. Hawksworth's been great, but he's also walked 15 hitters in 40 innings, which is not a good ratio for a reliever in the post-season. Boggs is a spot starter and long man, as is Thompson. So the question becomes Boggs or Thompson? Boggs' fastball topps out at about 93 MPH, and he has a 7.14 K/9 ratio. Thompson topps out at 88 MPH, and he has a 3.83 K/9 ratio.

If missing bats is important in the post-season, and current conventional wisdom says yes, Boggs will make the club. However LaRussa is loyal to his veterans, so I could see Thompson making the club too. I'll go with Boggs.

There'll be a series preview up tomorrow.

The Society for American Baseball Research

2009-10-05T08:45:00.000-07:00

I thought I'd take a moment, especially since the regular season has wrapped up and my hands need a break from all the wringing they've endured the last 7-10 days, to talk about the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR). You may have noticed the SABR logo in the right-hand margin. It's not there just because I dabble in statistical analysis here. I'm also a member of the organization, and have been since 2005.

I was introduced to SABR by a co-worker of mine, who was also a big baseball fan. My interest in the game predates this blog by a long way, and although I had heard of 'sabermetrics', I hadn't had much exposure to it. Turns out, the local chapter (Ted Williams) has its share of stat heads, but mostly it's made up of people who truly love the game. The Padres don't have the storied history a ball club like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, or Cardinals has, but there are lots of baseball fans here, and they know the game and like to talk about the game, even if its not always about the local nine.

Our chapter typically runs two meetings a year, and we get somewhere between 30-50 folks for those meetings. Those meetings aren't limited to just the membership, but more advanced notice is given to members so they can plan their schedules accordingly. For us, they are on a Saturday morning from say 0900-1300. Our meeting locations move throughout the greater San Diego area; we've met in the Hospitality room in Balboa Park, in one of the auxiliary rooms at Petco Park (courtesy of the San Diego Padres), and our most recent meeting was at the Public Library in Carlsbad. The agenda typically includes members who have been published or are working on a book project, whether it be print books (ex: Bill Nowlin, who's written several books on Ted Williams - here's one), or photo journalists (which seems to attract Cubs fans, as we've had a couple of photo montages presented on the Cubs). We've also heard from San Diego Padres front office personnel (including Paul DePodesta, whose remarks I discussed in some detail), as well as former ML players.

At our last meeting, Irv Noren, John Green, and Andy McCue spoke to the chapter. Irv played in 3 World Series (1952, 1953, 1955) for the Yankees, and shared some great stories about those teams. John is a local author working on the SABR bio project, which is an effort to get the personal story of baseball players of years past, so they don't just turn into a page at Baseball Reference. Andy is the current SABR National President, and he gave a very interesting brief on the personalities and events leading up to Major League Baseball's expansion in 1961/62.

Additionally, SABR puts out periodic newsletters, The National Pastime, a collection of articles with a little less statistical bent, and The Baseball Research Journal, an annual that is also the organization's flagship publication. Published since 1972, it contains all sorts of research findings, articles, statistical analysis, and the like - something for virtually every baseball fan's interest.

So as you can probably tell, I've very much enjoyed my time and association with SABR. I've gotten a lot out of it, and it's enhanced my understanding of both the game as it is played today, and the history of the game leading up to the present. It may do the same for you.

Interested in joining? You can find more information about SABR at their official website. I've also bookmarked the membership page on the SABR site, because I'm all about customer service. You join the national organization, but you become a part of your local chapter, and will receive as much or as little information from them as you want.

Hopefully I've piqued your interest. Check SABR out. You'll like what you find.

Before you panic...

2009-10-04T17:14:00.000-07:00

Last 10 games:

Cardinals 2-8
Dodgers 4-6
Phillies 4-6
Colorado 6-4

The playoff teams haven't exactly been tearing it up these past 2 weeks. And Colorado may have lost their hottest pitcher (De La Rosa) for the playoffs with a groin injury.

Also, there's this:

Last 10 games - 2006

Cardinals 3-7
Padres 8-2
Mets 5-5
Dodgers 9-1

Remember how that ended?

NL Playoff matchups set. Finally

2009-10-03T22:24:00.000-07:00

By virtue of the Dodgers 5-run seventh inning, the playoff positions are finally set.

Los Angeles wins the NL West and has the best record in the National League.
Philadelphia won the NL East and will finish with the second best NL record.
St Louis, as you know, won the NL Central.
Colorado settles for the Wild Card.

So, here's your NLDS pairings. Los Angeles hosts St Louis, and Philadelphia gets Colorado, starting Wednesday 7 October. Times of those games are still TBD. I will have an in-depth preview of the Cardinal/Dodger NLDS later this week.

Interesting that these are rematches of recent playoff series. St Louis defeated the Dodgers in the 2005 playoffs 3-1, although in that series the team seedings were reversed. Colorado swept the Phillies in 2007 with the same seeding.

The Dodgers are probably a good team for St Louis to play, given the current swoon the Cardinals are on. LA hasn't exactly lit it up in their drive to the post-season. I think Colorado is the hottest team in the league right now (not named Cincinnati or San Diego), and the Phillies owned St Louis this year.

Cardinal Pitching, Defense - Good Enough to win the NL?

2009-10-02T16:00:00.000-07:00

In our last post, we looked at the Cardinal offense as compared to the rest of the NL playoff teams, and the last few NL champs, to see how they stacked up.

The results were not encouraging.

However, unlike rec softball, playoff baseball is not just about scoring runs. It's also about preventing runs from being scored by your opponent. OK, that's true in rec softball too, but its not as critical (You can win a softball game 35-29. Don't know if any playoff game has featured a score that ridiculous). So let's look at Cardinal pitching and defense.

Team Pitching

It's a well-documented fact the Big 3 (Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro) fueled the Cardinals' August surge to the NL Central pennant. They won't throw all the innings in the playoffs, however, so this will be a team comparison. I looked at ERA for the casual fan, and BABIP and FIP for the more statistically-inclined (and by way of explanation, BABIP is Batting Average for Balls In Play, which does have a defensive component, and Fielding Independent Percentage, which tries to take the defensive effect on ERA out). All stats are from the Fangraphs database.

Number in parens is the team's NL rank.

BABIP: LA - .283 (1), STL - .297 (5), PHI - .303 (8), COL - .306 (11).
ERA: LA - 3.45 (1), STL - 3.62 (4), PHI - 4.14 (6), COL - 4.23 (8).
FIP: STL - 3.80 (2), LA - 3.81 (3), COL - 3.98 (5), PHI - 4.38 (11).

If sports reporting is to believed, Los Angeles' starting pitching at the moment is in disarray (less Randy Wolf), but the body of their work doesn't support that. Based on their ERA and BABIP numbers their pitchers have benefited from good defense behind them, but their FIP says the pitching's been good too (for what it's worth, ATL leads the league in FIP at 3.65). St Louis' pitching has benefited slightly from their defense, but their pitching as we've seen has been outstanding.

The interesting thing to me is Colorado's staff has pitched better than ERA would imply. Philadelphia's staff has been worse than their ERA indicates, despite the addition of Cliff Lee, and Joe Blanton being one of the best pitchers in the NL since 1 June.

Looks like the Cardinals/Dodgers series will be a low-scoring one, and the Colorado/Philadelphia might be a high scoring affair.

Comparing the last 5 NL Champions in these categories, here's what we find:

All these teams were in the top 5 of National League teams in BABIP; only LA and STL rank in that range with 3 to play. Everyone's in the top 8 in ERA (all of the 2009 teams are too), with 3 of the 5 winners in the top 4 (again only STL and LA). There's a lot of variation in the FIP numbers, driven by the 2006 and 2007 champs; the other teams are top 5, and in 2009 that's Colorado, Saint Louis, and LA.

If any conclusion can be drawn from this small sample, it would indicate St Louis and Los Angeles most closely fit the profiles of most of the previous NL Champs, so they would have a leg up. Of course, this year's Phillie pitching staff looks a lot like the 2006 Cardinal staff, although that Cardinal team hit better than this year's Phillie team based on the stats I'm using in these posts.

BABIP indicates that good defense is a factor too (duh, right?). Let's look.

Team Fielding

Fangraphs defensive data is a bit limited, so I've looked at UZR. Their UZR/150 data was +/- 1 place of the UZR data.

UZR: PHI - 4, LA - 7, STL - 8, COL - 9.

As expected, UZR data tracks with the difference between ERA and FIP discussed above. PHI is a lot better defensively based on UZR than I thought prior to looking at the data.

Looking at past Champs:

2008 - PHI #1 in NL
2007 - COL #6
2006 - STL #5
2005 - HOU #5, STL #6
2004 - STL #4

Small sample size conclusion: Teams winning the league were ranked no lower than 6th in the NL in team defense (as evaluated by UZR). That would suggest only Philadelphia has the defensive chops to win the NL this year.

Conclusions

Cardinal Pitching is definitely good enough to win the NL. Their defense is decidedly average, and might not be good enough.

To summarize these 2 posts:

1. Need to be in the top 3 in wOBA. All playoff teams but STL meet that requirement.
2. Need to be top 5 in BABIP. LA and STL meet that requirement.
3. Need to be in top 6 in UZR. Only Philadelphia meets that metric.
4. Small sample size makes these conclusions suspect.

What we can say is, going into next week, the Phillies, Rockies, and Dodgers have better offensive numbers than St Louis, and only Los Angeles' pitching staff is comparable to St Louis'. And although Philadelphia has the best defensive numbers of the four, that advantage is offset by their overall below-average pitching. And it gives some credence to the belief the playoffs under the current format are ultimately a crapshoot; the team that just barely qualifies has just as good a shot at winning the whole thing as the team that's played .600 ball all year.

If good pitching stops good hitting, then LA or STL will win the league. If good hitting is more important, then Colorado is the team to beat.

Let's start already.

Well That Was Fun

2009-10-02T09:35:00.000-07:00

Nothing like a mid-morning romp to lift your spirits. Nothing like scoring a baker's dozen to make you forget about offensive struggles.

Chris Carpenter's team record for RBIs in a game by a pitcher (6) was only 3 off the major league record. Tony Cloninger holds the record, with 9, set on 3 July 1966. That day he hit not one but TWO grand slams against the San Francisco Giants. Atlanta won 17-3.

Some other random thoughts:

- Carpenter is the seventh Cardinal hurler to win an ERA title. He's the first since Joe Magrane in 1988 (2.18), and the first right-hander since John Denny in 1977 (2.34). Here are the other winners:

Gibson (1968) - 1.12
Harry 'the Cat' Breechen (1948) - 2.24
Howie Pollet (1946) - 2.10
Max Lanier (1943) - 1.90
Mort Cooper (1942) - 1.78
Bill Doak (1921, 1914) - 2.59 and 1.72, respectively

- Molina left the game with a strained quadricep, but it's being reported as not serious. I would expect him to miss tonight but play Saturday and Sunday.

- The Cardinal rotation is set for the NLDS - Carpenter/Wainwright/Pineiro. Now all we need is an opponent.

- St Louis pulled within a game of Philadelphia for second best record. They trail LA by 2 games. Cardinals and Rockies have the same won/loss record at 91-68. By my read of the standings, should LA win tonight they clinch both the NL West and best record in the league. They could only be 2 up on Philly with 2 to play, but LA won the season series from Philadelphia 4-3 so they hold that tiebreaker.

Everyone stay healthy this weekend. The real season starts Wednesday.

Cardinal Offense - Good Enough to win the NL?

2009-09-30T11:12:00.000-07:00

While I was working on my preview for the Cardinals/Rockies series, I compared a couple of statistical metrics to see how the teams stacked up against each other, specifically UZR (defense), FIP (pitching), and wOBA (hitting). The Cardinals came up as solidly middle of the pack defensively (expected), top 15% in pitching (also expected), and lower half offensively (19th in MLB).

What? A Cardinal team featuring Albert Pujols and adding Matt Holliday couldn’t be in the bottom half of MLB offensively, could it? Had to be a mistake.

SO I looked a little deeper. For the 2009 season, and looking just at the NL this time, the Cardinals rank 8th in wOBA, 10th in OBP, and 5th in ISO. How does that stack up against the other potential playoff teams in the NL?

wOBA: 1st – PHI, 2nd – COL, 3rd – LA, 6th – ATL, 8th – STL.
OBP: 1st – LA, 2nd – COL, 5th – ATL, 8th – PHI, 10th – STL.
ISO: 1st – PHI, 2nd – COL, 5th – STL, 10th – ATL, 11th – LA.

Most Cardinal followers have spent a little time talking about the pitching dominance, but a lot of time talking about how much the lineup has improved since Holliday joined the club (and to a lesser extent, Lugo; DeRosa hasn’t hit well since coming over). But by the numbers, the Cardinals haven’t really improved since adding Holliday to the lineup:

Cardinals in June (pre-Holliday):
10th in wOBA (COL -1, PHI – 6, ATL – 12, LA – 13)
10th in OBP (COL – 1, PHI – 9, ATL – 11, LA – 13)
4th in ISO (COL – 1, PHI – 3, ATL – 9, LA – 12)

Cardinals in August (only complete Holliday month with data):
10th in wOBA (COL – 3, ATL – 5, PHI – 6, LA – 12)
9th in OBP (COL – 3, ATL – 4, LA – 10, PHI – 13)
12th in ISO (PHI – 1, COL – 2, LA – 9, ATL – 11)

The biggest surprise here is how Holliday has had minimal impact on the team’s overall success getting guys on base, and how his addition has not enhanced the lineup's isolated power numbers (given the big drop in ISO statistically), although granted that may be a reflection of Ludwick’s power outage and Albert’s cooling off period.

But what it does show is a season-long issue with getting guys on and hitting for extra bases. This team’s offense is spectacularly average in the NL, even as currently constructed. We’ve recently been reminded of that, given how they’ve struggled to win against quality pitching. So that offense ranked 19th in MLB I discovered in the preview post wasn’t an error – they struggle with the bat in their hands.

What does this imply for the playoffs?

Looking at the last 4 NL Champs, here’s how their numbers stacked up in each category.

2008 (PHI) – 3rd in wOBA, 7th in OBP, 1st in ISO.
2007 (COL) – 2nd in wOBA, 1st in OBP, 8th in ISO
2006 (STL) – 1st in wOBA, 4th in OBP, 2nd in ISO
2005 (HOU) – 11th in wOBA, 13th in OBP, 9th in ISO (by comparison, the 05 Cardinals ranked 4th, tied for 2nd, and 8th, respectively)

Three of the last 4 NL Champs led the league in one of these 3 categories, and those years each pennant-winner was in the top 3 in wOBA. What happened in 2005? Houston arguably had better pitching, and pitched better in the NLCS than St Louis did (read: Roy Oswalt).

However, based solely on the ability to put guys on and drive the ball throughout the lineup, the best bets on winning the NL appear to be Colorado, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and St Louis, in that order. Should they make the playoffs, Atlanta would be ranked between LA and STL.

We’ll take a look at Cardinal pitching versus all these staffs, to see if their pitching can mitigate this disadvantage, tomorrow.

Cardinals stop slide, clinch NL Central

2009-09-26T22:17:00.000-07:00

Way back on March 11, in a United Cardinal Blogger roundtable, I made the following predictions:

Cardinals finish 90-72 and win the wild card. Albert Pujols hits 50 HR. Todd Wellemeyer wins 20 games and the Cy Young.

Well some predictions are better than others. Wellemeyer certainly won't win 20. The Cy Young Award may well go to a Cardinal, but it will be Wainwright or Carpenter. Albert could still hit 50 HR. The Cardinals didn't win the wild card.

But they have won 90 games. Most of us wouldn't have believed it possible, especially since most experts picked St Louis to finish behind the Cubs and Brewers this season, but with their 90th victory, they've also qualified for the playoffs . . . . as NL Central Champions.

Would they have won the division without DeRosa, Lugo, and Holliday? Possible, but the division race certainly would have been closer than it turned out to be.

Congratulations are in order for the organization for making it to the post-season for the first time since winning it all in 2006. Now let's work on avoiding Colorado in the first round, OK?

Series Preview - Colorado

2009-09-25T12:00:00.000-07:00

In what could be a playoff preview, St Louis travels to the Continental Divide to play the Rockies. No, not the mountain range. St Louis has not beaten Colorado this season in 4 tries (all on the banks of the Mississippi).

I had hoped to not need a preview this weekend, that the Cardinals would have clinched by now. It looked like the Cardinals would clinch last night, But thanks to Jeff Baker’s ninth inning stomach punch (heroics?), the magic number remains at one.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 89-64, 1st NL Central, magic number – 1. The Cardinals clubbed a moribund Houston franchise to start this road trip, winning 2 of 3. However, Bud Norris still proved nettlesome, and they were unable to clinch in Houston.

Colorado: 86-67, 2nd NL West, 6 games behind Los Angeles. Lead in the NL Wild Card, 3.5 games in front of Atlanta. Magic number – 7. Colorado has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2009 season. After a historic finish to the 2007 season and a NL pennant, they regressed back to the team they had been from 2001-2006, finishing 14 games under .500. A managerial change early this season led to clearly defined roles for the starting 8, and the team responded by jumping into the pennant race. In their most recent series, they lost 2 of 3 at home to San Diego. They swept 4 from St Louis earlier this season, Of course, the Cardinal team that got swept is not the Cardinal taking the field now.

Colorado isn’t a very good defensive team (based on team UZR – they rank 17th, 3 places behind St Louis), but they are pitching well (based on team FIP – they rank 5th, Cardinals rank 2nd), and they can hit (based on team wOBA – they rank 6th, Cardinals rank 19th).

Friday and Saturday’s games could well be the matchups for Games 1 and 2 of a playoff series.

Pitching match-ups

26 September: Carpenter vs Aaron Cook (10-6, 4.47). Cook is a home-grown Colorado guy (drafted by the club in 1997) and a steadying influence on the rotation. Sentiment in the clubhouse and by Rockie management could well lead to his selection as a Game 1 starter for the playoffs, assuming his shoulder is fine. And his shoulder may not be fine. This will be his first start in over a month (since August 21, to be exact). He is a pitch-to-contact guy (3.7 K/9), so although he’s returning from an injury, he could get deep into the game if the Cardinals are impatient. I would expect he’ll be on a pitch count and probably won’t go more than 6 innings anyway. How will he pitch? That is a large unknown.

He went 8 innings against the Cardinals on June 6 (a 10-1 Colorado win). That is his only win against St Louis in 7 career starts. Of the Cardinals who will play tonight that have had more than 10 PA against him, AP has had the most success (3-9, 2 BB). Glaus has 2 HR in 11 AB off Cook, but I doubt we’ll see him given his own shoulder injury.

Carpenter will make his third attempt to win his 17th game. After getting lit up by Atlanta he threw 8 shutout innings at Chicago last Saturday. He currently leads the NL in ERA. Carpenter has never lost to the Rockies, but he hasn’t faced them since 7/25/06, which is also his only career start in Colorado. No current Rockie is slugging over .600 against him (the closest is Jason Giambi at .579).

27 September: Wainwright vs Ubaldo Jimenez (14-11, 3.47). Thanks to the Yankees/Red Sox ‘Love In’ sure to be televised by Fox Saturday, most of the country will miss this match-up, which is too bad, because it’s a doozy. Some prognosticators think Jimenez has the best stuff of any NL starter that may pitch in the 2009 playoffs, and given the other guys on playoff teams (our 2, Hamels/Lee/Pedro in Philly, Lincecum/Cain in SF, etc), that’s high praise. Larry Borowsky also recently called Jimenez the Rockies’ best pure pitcher. He averages 8K’s per game, has cut his walks by one per game this season from his career average, might allow a HR every 2 games, and has been downright nasty since 1 August (2.73 ERA, 61 K in 69.1 innings, OPS against of .599). He throws his fastball 2/3 of the time and it averages 96 MPH. He also employs a plus slider and change-up, and occasionally flips a curveball up there.

The Cardinals do not enjoy hitting against this guy (83 team PA: .236/.317/.292). No current Cardinal has homered off him. You’d think with that kind of dominance he’d have never lost to St Louis. However, in this series’ Statistical Oddity, Jimenez is only 1-1 career against them (and the Rockies are 1-2 against St Louis when he starts). His lone win came on June 7 this year.

Wainwright may well be the best pitcher in the NL right now (Lincecum is battling a nagging back injury). He currently leads the majors in wins, and the NL in innings and batters faced (although those facts don’t support my ‘best pitcher’ claim, they’re true nonetheless). He faced Colorado on 5 June, losing to De La Rosa 11-4. He actually trailed 2-1 after 6, but the Rockies exploded for 9 runs in the seventh in an ugly inning for the Cardinal bullpen (both Reyes and Motte gave up 3 ER without retiring a hitter).

The Cardinals have lost Wainwright’s last 2 starts after winning the previous 7. Adam has started 3 games against the Rockies (1-1 overall), one in Coors. Only Garrett Atkins has more than 10 PA against him (3-11, no XBH), although in 69 total PA by the roster they’ve put up a .219/.275/.634 line against him.

28 September: Lohse vs Jorge De La Rosa (15-9, 4.42). After starting the season 0-6, De La Rosa has turned into the most reliable Rockie starter, winning 15 of his last 18 decisions. That said, his particulars aren’t exactly awe inspiring. 4 walks per 9 innings, 16 HR in 122 1/3 innings, OPS against of .771. His FIP isn’t bad (3.99), but he’s definitely beatable. A big part of his success is the Rockies averaging over 7 runs per game in the ones he starts.

De La Rosa is 2-1 in 5 career starts against St Louis. He has not lost to the Cardinals at Coors; granted, it’s only one start, but he did beat Lohse that day. Only AP has more than 10 PA against De La Rosa, and he’s put up a .273/.400/.636 line against him. As a team, in 70 PA they’re hitting .350/.429/.700. Pujols, Molina, Ludwick, Glaus, and DeRosa have all homered off Jorge.

Lohse was tough against the Astros this week. Various press organizations reported he started favoring his forearm and had changed his delivery slightly, but that he had fixed it between his Astro start and his previous one. The results certainly spoke to a better Lohse than we’d seen in other recent outings. Lohse hasn’t faced the Rockies since May of 08, and hasn’t had much success against them in his career (his teams are 2-3 overall against Colorado when he starts). Todd Helton has hit him hard – 15 PA, .417/.533/.833. Giambi also has more than 10 PA, but a lot less success (.182/.250/.455). As a team, in 98 career PA, the Rockies have put up .277/.361/.506.

Prognosis/prediction. The Cardinals will clinch this weekend, either by a win or the Giants beating Chicago. Knowing the competitor LaRussa is, they won’t take any of these games off, because of Colorado’s status as a potential first round opponent, the impact these games will have on the wild card chase, and because the Cardinals still could end up with home field throughout the NL playoffs. Expect the Cardinals to win tonight. Expect tomorrow’s game to come down to who has the better bullpen (Morales for Colorado is reeeeally shaky right now, BTW.). Sunday? I’ll pick the Rockies to win just because I have a hunch. Cards can take 2 of 3.

Go Cards!

Programming note: Once the Cardinals clinch, there will be no series previews posted until the playoffs start.

Good For Your Soul

2009-09-23T07:27:00.000-07:00

I guess after enduring a tough homestand, the best thing is to go visit a team who's season has fallen apart. No one would argue this visit to Houston hasn't been a tonic for Cardinal hitters. They hung 6 runs on Wandy and 6 more on last night's starter Bazardo en route to easy wins both nights.

Their offense getting in gear is going to be important for their next series, as Colorado is playing well and is also putting up runs. Yes, they're currently playing San Diego, and hung 11 on the Padres last night, but San Diego has played better overall since the All Star break (33-31) than the .409 pace they were on before July 12. Also that series could be a preview of the NLDS, so best foot forward, as they say.

Before we all breathe a collective sigh of relief that the offense has returned - let's not forget the Cardinals have beaten up on teams under .500 (currently 62-33 against them, or a .652 pace), but are under .500 themselves against teams with winning records (27-30; they were 26-25 heading into the last homestand). So while the offensive resurgence is encouraging, I'd really like to see it continue this weekend against a playoff-caliber team.

I predicted the Cardinals would clinch in Houston, and that can still happen. However, it will require them to beat a guy (Bud Norris) who mystified them in August, and get some help from a Milwaukee team that's been beaten up as badly by the Cubs the last two days as St Louis has mauled Houston. Former Notre Dame WR Jeff Samardzija will start today for the Cubs against Chris Narveson. Samardzija got killed by the Phillies on August 12 (3 1/3, 7 ER) in his only other start of 2009. Former Cardinal farmhand Narveson has been better - in his 2 previous starts, he's thrown 8 innings allowing 3 ER. Milwaukee won both those games, although he didn't figure in either decision.

So, the magic number stands at 2. Another easy one - #2 is retired, last worn by Red Schoendienst. Back in the day, major league organizations would hold open try-outs for aspiring baseball players in the local area of the team. Red was discovered at one of these events, and debuted with the Cardinals in 1945. He eventually played 19 seasons in the Majors, most with St Louis, but he spent some time with the NY Giants and Milwaukee Braves towards the end of his career. Bob Keely wore 2 before Schoendienst. He appeared in one game in 1944 and one in 1945; he had one at bat in the majors (1945), and didn't reach base. He died in 2001.

The big news yesterday was the voiding of Wagner Mateo's contract by the Cardinals. His signing had been a big deal, both because he was a high-value prospect, and because it represented a splashy entry by the Cardinals into the Carribean player market. A $3.1 million contract to a 19-year old will turn some heads, to be sure. Not sure what voiding the contract will do, but most of it will probably be negative. Not that I fault the Cardinals for doing this; part of the conditions was that Mateo had to pass a physical, and he didn't. I'm going to assume the results of his physical (apparently taken in July) were known to the organization before now, and they've been trying to decide what to do since.

One other thing: The Post-Dispatch report implies the injury wasn't disclosed prior to Mateo signing the contract. It's always bad policy to withhold information from an employer, especially if it has large potential to come out anyway. In a physical game, why would you try to hide an injury? Makes no sense. The USN has a cute little saying, "never be the senior man with bad news". The idea is to pass the data up the chain of command so the leadership knows about problems early and can work to fix them. When something bad happens and someone tries to cover it up, it invariably blows up much worse than it would have had that individual come clean to start.

Sometimes you just don't have it

2009-09-22T07:03:00.000-07:00

We all were shocked recently when Carp gave up 6 runs with 2 outs to Atlanta - something he hadn't done since his early years in Toronto. Last night something similar happened to Wandy Rodriguez. He couldn't control his breaking ball, and the Cardinals were able to hammer him.

The three first inning runs all came after Rodriguez retired the first 2 Cardinals. AP won't admit it - he's too much of a professional - but I'm sure he's aware of how Wandy's handcuffed him through the years (also because knuckleheads like me keep pointing it out), and the double had to be somewhat satisfying (Pujols finished 1-3 off Wandy). By the time Houston put a runner on the game was essentially over.

Two other big things out of this game:

- Mark DeRosa looked comfortable at the plate. Then again, DeRosa loves hitting at Minute Maid Park. He's hit more HR there than any ballpark he hasn't called home. If I was in the Astro front office, I might consider trying to sign him in the off-season. I thought during the Sunday night game that DeRosa had found his stroke (as I mentioned yesterday, and also why I thought the sac bunt in the ninth was a dumb play); this line in Derrick Goold's post game wrap seems to confirm that:

As Lohse altered his mechanics to compensate for his forearm, so too did DeRosa adjust his swing to protect the wrist. He tripled Friday and said that was the breakthrough swing.

If he's re-discovered his stroke, this truly becomes a fearsome lineup.

- The other is Lohse's good outing. He's been fighting his mechanics ever since getting hit by a pitch waaaay back in April. I didn't realize going into this game he hadn't won a start on the road. Lohse appeared to get both monkeys off his back in this start. Now, the Astros are not very good, so a dose of caution is still in order; if Kyle can continue making strong starts like last night's from now until the end of the season, Cardinals pitching picks up some much needed flexibility and depth. Again, they become much more dangerous in the playoffs.

One other thing - the CBS Sports game recap headline refers to the Astros as the 'fading Astros'. Are they really fading at this point? They'd been completely eliminated from the playoff chase before this series started. Wouldn't 'faded' be more accurate? 'Sunk'? 'Imploded'?

Chicago clobbered Braden Looper and the Brewers last night, 10-5, so St Louis was only able to lower their magic number by one. Magic Number Watch now stands at 3. #3 has recently been a middle infielder number, much like #4 was. As you know, currently Khalil Greene wears the number. I doubt Khalil will look back fondly at his time in St Louis from a baseball perspective, but the team seems to be giving him all the support he needs to deal with his anxiety disorder, so he should remember the team as one that tried to help. Recent past wearers of 3 include Cesar Izturis (2008), Miguel Cairo (2007), and Edgar Renteria (1999-2004).

Series Preview - Houston

2009-09-21T16:30:00.000-07:00

Programming note: Once the Cardinals clinch, there will be no series previews posted until the playoffs start.

The Cardinals face Houston for the final time in 2009. They travel to the home of Mission Control for a 3-game set, and look to clinch the division.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 87-63, 1st NL Central, 10 games ahead of Chicago. St Louis salvaged some dignity on the last homestand by taking 2 of 3 from the Cubs, but still endured a 3-6 stay in St Louis. St Louis was swept in their previous trip to Houston in July.

Houston: 70-79, 4th NL Central. Houston has been eliminated from the divisional race, their loss yesterday knocked them out of the Wild Card chase. They’ve lost 7 in a row. They’ve shut Oswalt down for the season due to hip and back pain. Since St Louis’ magic number is 4, they can’t alter the final standings in the NL Central, they can only hope to delay the inevitable.

Pitching match-ups

21 September: Pineiro vs Wandy Rodriguez (13-10, 2.77). Easily the best matchup of the series. Rodriguez has been the Astros best pitcher in 2009. He hasn’t pitched with much luck against St Louis this season, based on won/loss record (1-2, team record of 1-3 when he starts), but he’s pitched very well in those games (2.25 ERA, 0.791 WHIP, 19 K). In September he’s given up 3 ER in 20 innings, and opponents have an OPS of .510 against him.

Wandy’s the guy that’s given AP fits (4-28, 2B, no HR), but Holliday’s solved him pretty well (5-16, 2 HR). DeRosa and Glaus have also homered off him. Ludwick has struck out 10 times in 26 PA against him.

Pineiro dueled Ted Lilly to a draw on Friday night, and hopes to keep his solid pitching going. Joel’s 2-0 against Houston this season.

22 September: Lohse vs Yorman Bazardo (0-1, 8.50). Bazardo was called up in August when Doug Brocail went on the DL. Bazardo throws a fastball, slider, and changeup, and has thrown only 46 major league innings in parts of 4 seasons in the majors (with 3 different clubs, no less). This year, he’s appeared in 7 games, making 3 starts. In those 3 starts he’s been blistered – he’s made it through the 5th inning only once, and in his 11 2/3 start innings, he’s walked 9 while striking out 3. He also doesn’t miss many bats – hitters make contact 86% of the time when they swing at a pitch he’s thrown. Now, he’s never faced St Louis, so of course he’ll throw 6 shutout innings.

Lohse returns to the rotation after being skipped on Friday. He’s 5-5 career against Houston, with a 2.86 ERA. He’s 1-1 against them this year. All eyes will watch this start intently, hoping he can right himself and pitch better than his recent history.

23 September: Smoltz vs Bud Norris (5-3, 5.07). Remember Bud Norris? He threw 7 shutout innings in St Louis on 2 August, allowing 2 hits, for his first Major League win. He followed that a brief period of getting torched, but has settled down somewhat in September (17 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, 21 K, 3 HR allowed). Houston lost his last start, but had won his pervious two.

Smoltz pitched well on Friday in a no-decision effort. He has pitched well against Houston based on his career ERA (2.98), and he’s 16-13 overall. Hhis team has won the last 3 times he’s started against the Astros, but he hasn’t faced them since the last day of the 2006 season, a game you might remember (as that Astro loss clinched the NL Central for the Cardinals). Not to mention those 3 starts were in 1999, 2005, and the aforementioned 2006 game.

Three current Astros have stepped in at least 10 times against him, and all have OBP of 400 or higher (Aaron Boone, Geoff Blum, Kazuo Matsui). Only Matsui is a starter.

Prognosis/prediction. One tough matchup, one guy they’ve never seen, and one guy who handcuffed them in August. Houston’s lost seven straight. Meanwhile, Chicago goes to Milwaukee. The Cardinals should win 2 of 3 in this series and clinch the division.

Go Cards!

Update 1449: Cecil Cooper has been fired as Astros manager. I have no idea how this will affect their play.

Not the way it could have ended

2009-09-21T09:23:00.000-07:00

Ended up watching the last 6 innings or so of last night's Cardinal/Cub game after getting home. Didn't quite end like we wanted it to.

- The Cardinal ninth baffled me. Not the Holliday call - he was clearly out of the base line and that was the correct call by the second base umpire. But after Schumaker reaches on a single, why use DeRosa to bunt him over? DeRosa had tagged the ball his previous 2 at bats (an RBI double to tie the score, and a flyball to left that Scales had to jump up to catch). Everyone knew if Lugo made it to second with one out the Cubs would walk Pujols (which they did), so that play effectively removed AP from the game.

Now folks will argue that, with Holliday on deck, this isn't as serious a tactical error as it was before the end of July, and there may be some truth to that; but for as well as Holliday has played since joining the Cardinals, he isn't the best hitter on the club. Pujols still is. I want Pujols swinging the bat in that situation.

As it turned out, Holliday got hit by a pitch, so the bases were loaded for Ludwick. Who promptly grounded into the double play. I don't know who Dan selected a the goat (I haven't looked at his post yet today), but he probably gave Goat to Mitchell Boggs; Ludwick deserves it more.

- I didn't know So Taguchi was in the Cub chain. I thought he retired after last season. Nice to see you, So.

In Memoriam of Fire Joe Morgan, some dumb things said last night during the broadcast:

- JM, when LaRussa pulled Adam Wainwright from the game: I'm disappointed he took him out there. I think you have to let him try to get the win and get to 20 wins.

Couple of things here. (a) Wainwright had already thrown 102 pitches on a hot night. Seemed appropriate to take him out after 7. (b) I know it would be nice from a milestone perspective to see Adam win 20, and I know lots of people put too much weight in the wins statistic that clearly doesn't measure pitching performance as it once did. Not to mention the fact that the Cardinals are going to the playoffs. Wainwright's now thrown 219 innings and faced 909 hitters, most in the NL. THE POINT IS TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES, NOT REACH SOME MEANINGLESS MILESTONE. LaRussa made the right decision.

- Jon Miller, in the eighth, when the Cubs had runners on with 1 out: The Cardinals can't afford to give up more runs here if they want to win.

To this my wife responded 'That is the point stupid!'. I got nothing to add there.

- JM, in the eighth, referring to Skip Schumaker: Why is he hitting leadoff? He only has 2 stolen bases all year.

He's right, Schu has only 2 steals this year (and has been caught twice). This is classic Joe Morgan. In his day the leadoff hitter was a stolen base threat, no matter what his success rate. There can't be any possible other measuring stick for selecting a leadoff hitter, can there Joe? Except the whole point of leading off the game is to get on base so your #2-5 hitters can drive you in. Scoring runs is the object of the game, right? Score more than the other guy? Then the goal is to get on base. Schumaker has the highest OBP of any Cardinal not named Pujols. Perhaps THAT'S why LaRussa has him hitting leadoff.

At any rate, the Cardinals magic number remains at 4 going into Houston. There'll be a preview up later, but with the back end of the Cub rotation starting the first 2 games in Milwaukee, I'm hopeful the Brewers can take the first two; if St Louis wins 2 of 3 from Houston, that'll do it.

Well those two games have lived up to their billing

2009-09-20T05:00:00.000-07:00

What a way to start the weekend. Two tense games decided in the last at bat. Chicago led in one and tied the other in the top of the ninth, only to lose both.

I'm reminded of the climatic scene in The Patriot, after the Continental Army turns to flee:

Cornwallis: "Reserve into the Center."
Brit Lieutenant (quizzically): "But Sir, you've taken the field."
Cornwallis: "Now we shall take their spirits. Send the entire army over that hill and crush them. It ends today!"

Unfortunately it won't end today. Even if Wainwright beats Zambrano, the magic number will still be 2, so the Cardinals will have to clinch on the road. However, sweeping the Cubs, well, that would be a nice way to put a cherry on what's been a lousy homestand.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 4

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee: 1 (beat Houston 7-2)
- Houston: ELIMINATED (lost to Milwaukee)
- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

This will be the last 'eliminate rivals' item, seeing as they're all out as of today.

Who wore the number last: After Friday's win, the number stood at 6.

#6 - Do I really need to remind you, readers of THIS SITE, who wore that number last? The last guy to wear 6 before Musial? Stu Martin (1940). He was a reserve infielder who played 6 seasons for St Louis (1936-1940), then was sold by the Cardinals to the Pirates after the 1940 season. He played 2 years for Pittsburgh, then one for the Cubs. He died in 1997.

#4 - For a while, it seemed 4 would be worn by the Cardinal second basemen. However, currently Yadier Molina wears the number, and has since 2006. Before him Einar Diaz had it (2005), then Tony Womack (2004), then Fernando Vina.

How much do I hate Fox Sports? Let me count the ways.

2009-09-19T15:42:00.001-07:00

Cardinals are up 1-0 in the ninth. Meanwhile, LA is killing SF to the tune of 9-1. Three guesses as to which game the San Diego area is watching (and the first 2 don't count).

Update: Franklin blew the save. Dodgers up 10-1. Urge to kill rising.

Update #2: Ryan knocks in the winning run. You wouldn't know it since San Diego is still watching the Dodgers (now up 11-1). All Fox Game Breaks today have featured the Tigers/Twins game. Maybe a giant meteor will strike the Fox corporate offices.

Series Preview - Chicago Cubs

2009-09-19T11:09:00.001-07:00

Author's note: This preview was actually finished 3 days ago. I intended to post it yesterday, but got distracted with official Navy duties. Shame on me. Anyway, for your reading pleasure.

Next we welcome the Chicago Cubs to the program; the Cubs make their last appearance in St Louis for 2009, and close out the homestand. The Cardinals have one 8 of the previous 13 meetings, and look to win the season series outright for the first time since 2004.

Last chance to heckle these Cubs. Odds are the team will look different in 2010 (good bye, Milton Bradley? Alfonso Soriano? Zambrano?)

Current snapshot

St Louis: 85-62, 1st in NL Central, 9 games ahead of Chicago (8 on the loss side). After hammering the league in August, the Cardinals have slipped into a funk, aided by some quality opposing pitching. They’ve currently lost 5 of 6, all at home, their worst stretch at home since June 3-8. The unsettled situation for #4 and #5 starters is a problem for the balance of the regular season, but may be moot for the playoffs, assuming Smoltz becomes the #4 starter for any 7-game series they get to.

Chicago: 75-70, 2rd in NL Central, 9 games behind. Cubs hold the 8th best record in the NL, trailing Colorado by 7 games in the Wild Card; they have a better shot at winning the Wild Card than the Division. At the end, with the season basically over, they’ve finally gotten hot, having won 6 of their last 9. Chicago’s troubles have been well documented. The Milton Bradley disaster (.260/.380/.762, 12 HR 39 RBI for $10 million). The Alfonso Soriano abomination. Injuries hammering the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol walking at least a hitter an inning. Kevin Gregg ineffective as the closer. And so on. This is a proud team, and I would think they intend to plant a seed for next season by playing hard and trying to take the series (yeah you’re better now, but wait until next year).

Pitching match-ups

18 September: Ted Lilly (12-8, 3.05) vs Smoltz. Left-handed Ted Lilly always seems to give the Cardinals trouble; perhaps that’s because he’s 7-3 in 13 starts against them. Lilly has started two games against the Redbirds in 2009, losing to Pineiro 3-0 on May 19th in St Louis, and winning 5-2 on July 11th (beating Thompson). What drives his success against St Louis is a microcosm of why he’s successful in general – high strikeout rate, 4:1 K/BB ratio, low BABIP (.278), FIP of 3.81. He does tend to give up a lot of HR, though (22 this season), but has found ways to minimize the damage, as summarized in this fangraphs.com commentary.

Lots of Cardinals have at least 10 plate appearances against him – in fact, most of the starting 8 (Pujols, Molina, Ludwick, Ryan, Schumaker, DeRosa). As a group, these players are hitting .179 against him. Pujols (2), and Molina/Glaus/Lugo/Ankiel/DeRosa (1 each) have homered off Lilly.

I applaud the Cardinals for not starting Lohse in this game. Smoltz missed his last start with the shoulder issue; I doubt the 10 days off completely healed his shoulder, but the time should have had some recuperative effect for him. Smoltz has had a lot of success against the Cubs (15-5, 3.33 ERA in 39 appearances of which 29 were starts), so that bodes well. He is 0-1 in St Louis this season. Smoltz has a big-game pitcher reputation he earned based on his body of post-season work with Atlanta. With the Cardinals reeling right now, they need a big effort from him Friday.

Statistical Oddity: For all the time Smoltz has been in the NL, only 4 current Cubs have faced him: Lee (.763 OPS, 1 HR), Ramirez (1.218 OPS, 2 HR), Miles (.533 OPS, 3 RBI), and Bradley (.250 OPS, 3 K).

19 September: Ryan Dempster (10-8, 3.84) vs Carpenter. Dempster turned a 17-win season into a 4 year/$52 million deal last November, and other than suffering the year’s stupidest on-field injury, he’s pitched essentially as he did last year. His major indicators are on his career marks, except for his BB/9 which sits at 3.2, matching last year’s career low rate, and his HR allowed, currently 19 (the most he’s allowed since 2002).

He’s faced St Louis a lot in his career, mostly as a reliever; as a starter he’s 4-5, 4.75 ERA in 14 career starts. He’s opposed the Cardinals three times this season; the team is 1-2 in those starts (Dempster: 0-1, 4.26 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 6.16K/9, 1.85 K/BB).

Lots of Cardinals have had lots of PA against him, led by Ludwick, LaRue, and Lugo, who all have at least a .900 OPS against him. Lugo is also tied with AP for the most HR off Dempster (2) of the 2009 Redbirds.

The off-day allows LaRussa to shuffle his rotation, and he’s taking advantage of it by starting Carpenter Saturday. It gives Carp an extra day of rest from his Sunday start against Florida, which can only help the right-hander. Carpenter is 9-3 career against the small Bears, 3-1 against them in St Louis, and 2-0 this season. Chris relinquished the league ERA lead to Lincecum on Sunday, he remains 2nd in WHIP (to Dan Haren – still irritated by the Mulder trade) and 5th in K/BB ratio (Haren, Vasquez, Pineiro, Lincecum).

Ramirez, Lee,and Bradley have homered off him in their careers. Current Cubs are hitting .304 against Carp, with a .743 OPS

Statistical Oddity II: Of the current Cubs with 10 PA vs Carpenter, Carlos Zambrano leads in OPS (1.300). Insert ‘small sample size’ derision here.

20 September: Carlos Zambrano (8-6, 3.94) vs Wainwright. The Completely and Utterly Crazy Big Z returns to the hill. He last faced the Redbirds in Lohse’s return to the rotation (July 12), which was also the first game of a doubleheader and the last day of games before the All-Star Break. Zambrano broke his recent string of suckiness against St Louis in that game, allowing only 3 ER in 5 IP and getting the win. In his previous 3 starts he’d surrendered at least 7 ER. CAUE Big Z hasn’t been the rock #1 this season Cub fans have come to expect, and arguably Lilly (and possibly Dempster) have passed him as the #1 and #2 starters in the rotation, but he still presents a tough matchup for the Cardinals.

AP has 5 HR and an .862 OPS off the big guy, but Ludwick has really enjoyed stepping into the box when Zambrano’s on the mound (7-11, 2 HR, 1.847 OPS).

Zambrano has won his last 4 starts in St Louis, and has an 8-inning scoreless streak going at Busch.

Wainwright throws one pretty good (at least, to me watching the replay) pitch that Uggla hits out, and loses 2-1. Tough. He tries for win #19 on Sunday (which should be the ESPN Sunday night tilt as well). Wainwright has manhandled the Cubs this season; personally he’s 3-0 against them, and the team is 4-0 against the Cubs when he starts. His last start was also 12 July, when he threw 8 innings allowing 2 runs. That game also happened to be on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.

Adam hasn’t had much luck facing Zambrano in his career. This will be the 4th time they’ve hooked up, and Z holds a 2-1 edge. Adam did win the last time, a year ago almost to the day (19 Sep 08 in Chicago). Six Cub starters have at least 12 PA against him: Lee (.660 OPS), Ramirez (1.074 OPS, 4 2B, HR), Theriot (.604 OPS), Fukudome (a Fukudome sighting! .800 OPS, HR), Fontenot (.715 OPS), and Soto (.962 OPS).

Prognosis/prediction. The Cardinals need this series. They can put away the Cubs with a sweep. The pitching matchups should be dynamite. Cardinal struggles at the plate against good pitching is concerning, but I think they’ll generate just enough offense to pull it out. I also think LaRussa will pull out all the managerial stops too.

Cardinals win 2 of 3.

Magic Number for Division Title: 8. Predicted Magic Number PM 9/20: 4.

Go Cards!

UCB Stuff and magic numbers

2009-09-17T13:00:00.000-07:00

We had a great show last night discussing the Cardinals. Dan (C70 at the Bat) and I were joined by Josh from Redbirds Row. We were also able, through some technical expertise by Dan, to play parts of my interview with :Larry Borowsky on the show. You can listen to both via the Real Audio player right over there ===>.

Last night's show is the first file, Larry's interview is the one right below it.

Tomorrow the UCB will be doing its first group project in a while, this one focused on prospects. We will present our opinions on the top 7 prospects currently in the Cardinals system. You can find a central list of the blogs participating at the UCB website.

On to serious business:

Magic Number Watch

Clinch Division: 9 (Cubs lost to Milwaukee 9-5)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee: 3
- Houston: 2 (lost to Cincinnati 6-5)
- Cincinnati, Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

The Cardinals are finally 'single-digit midgets'. I noticed I've been slacking on the last player to wear the number list, so here's a few catch up ones:

#11 - no one's worn the number since the end of the 1998 season. Oddly, 3 guys wore the number that year, starting with Royce Clayton, who held it until being traded to Texas at the deadline for Fernando Tatis. Luis Ordaz wore it next for a while, then worked out a number trade with Tatis; Fernando finished the year wearing 11. Ordaz broke camp in 1999 and then spent most of the year in AAA. He was traded to the Diamondbacks after the 1999 season.

#10 - Obviously Tony LaRussa's held the number since becoming the manager in 1996, and his reasons for selecting it are now widely known. The guy before LaRussa with it was the unremarkable Ramon Caraballo, who played 34 games at #10 in 1995, posting a .202./.269/.323 line as a back-up second baseman. Caraballo was released after the season, and signed by the Boston Red Sox, but he never played in the majors again.

#9 - Is retired. Enos Slaughter holds the honor. His HOF page/plaque is here. His stats can also be viewed here.

Update 3:25 PM: Milwaukee beat Chicago 7-4 today. Magic number is now 8. #8 is currently Troy Glaus.

Holliday Blues

2009-09-17T06:43:00.000-07:00

Well it's been an ugly homestand so far, no?

Dropping 5 of 6 to Atlanta/Florida will cause most to reflect a little bit on what went wrong. St Louis certainly should have won 1 more game (Saturday's 7-6 loss), but Franklin had some issues. They could have taken two more (Friday's 1-0 and Tuesday's 2-1 decision) with a bit more timely hitting.

Let's focus on the hitting for a bit.

Cardinal hitters haven't been lighting up the scoreboard this homestand. Here are some numbers for you to chew on (BA/OPS):

Holliday - .231/.567
Pujols - .381/.921
Schumaker - .455/.975
Ryan - .333/.762
DeRosa - .136/.356
Rasmus - .273/.727
Ludwick - .222/.556
Lugo - .250/.724
Ankiel - .273/.545
Molina - .313/.764

Lots of guys struggling on the homestand.

Ankiel's been in essentially a season-long funk, so no new news there. Ludwick's OPS peaked on 25 July (.850) and he's been in a gentle, but steady, decline since (.689 OPS with 11 XBH since).The DeRosa struggles aren't a surprise, because of the wrist issue he's been fighting through since coming over from Cleveland.

Holliday's struggles, however, are a bit of a eye-catcher. There is some anecdotal evidence Holliday's pressing, given the way he's reacting after chasing bad balls, and some non-clutchiness in key situations (his bases loaded at bats in the 6th on Tuesday and 9th yesterday stand out).

He's not being patient on this homestand: 0 walks in 27 PA. Since coming to the Cardinals, he's walked in about 11% of his plate appearances (17 + 4 intentional in 212 PA), which would place him 30th in the league or in the top 10% of NL hitters. Why has he abandoned that part of his game this homestand? He's struck out 34 times in those PA, or just over 16% of the time (which, if he kept it up over a full season, would make him the second toughest guy in the NL to strike out behind AP), but it's ticked up on this homestand to 26%; and the 7 strikeouts represent 20% of his half-season total with St Louis.

Why the lack of patience? True the Cardinals have faced better pitching in the last 6 games than they have for a while, but that shouldn't cause Holliday to throw pitch selection to the winds. He could be pressing with Ludwick hitting behind him, due to Ryan's own slump; he's struck out 3 times in the 3 games Ludwick's hit 5th, but 4 times with Rasmus behind him, so that doesn't seem to be the reason either. What is true is in the 3 games Ludwick's hit 5th, the Cardinals have scored 3 runs total, and 2 of those runs came well after the game was decided.

His XBH have dried up - 2 (both doubles) on the homestand. There are, to my mind, two possible causes for this. Again the good pitching argument. The other could be his knees. I know, I know - small sample size blah blah blah. But he hasn't hit the ball with authority since tripping over the bag in Milwaukee, so you wonder what he actually did to the knee, and if he's having trouble pivoting around it. If I had access to game tapes for the last two weeks, state of the art video analysys equipment, and no need to work I would examine his swings and make a definitive assessment, but out here in the real world that's not possible.

I don't have a solution - I point it out as something to watch.

Hair on Fire Wednesday

2009-09-16T08:37:00.000-07:00

Busy today, so we'll keep it short. If time permits, I'll post again later today.

Cards lost 2-1 to the rookie lefty. Figures. Lots of LOB again.

Magic Number Watch.

Clinch Division: 10 (Cubs won 12-5)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 3 (lost to Philly 5-4)
- Milwaukee: 3 (lost to Cubs 12-5)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

Finally, my turn to host the UCB radio hour comes up again tonight. Dan and I will discuss all things Cardinal. Also, we hope to play portions or all of an interview I did with Larry Boroswky (formerly of Viva El Birdos) this weekend. Should be good! Look forward to hearing from you!

If you have any questions you'd like to ask us, and can't make the show, just leave them in the comments. We'll get to them.

Cards win despite Wellemeyer

2009-09-15T06:50:00.000-07:00

We didn't learn anything new last night. Wellemeyer v.2008 is merely a passing memory, replaced by Wellemeyer v. 2009, who sucks. I didn't think it would be possible to see Todd's ERA go up last night, but he exceeded expectations and did just that.

In fairness, he hasn't pitched at all really since 30 July, so I was expecting a lack of command and early fatigue, figuring he'd be out of the game after 5 at the most. But Wellemeyer didn't really walk anyone (1 in his 4 innings), and his first pitch command better than expected (21 batters faced, 5 1-0 counts, 13 0-1 counts (10 of those were strike one looking), 3 hitters put the first pitch in play). He also only had four 3-ball counts last night, and all four were within the first 6 hitters he faced.

Not pitching from behind early in the count, not a lot of deep counts - what happened? Sounds like he was wild in the strike zone, or in other words, left a lot of pitches up and out over the plate. Wellemeyer had 4 swinging strikes all night - by the same two hitters (1 in each of Uggla's at bats, 2 in the same Cameron Maybin at bat). Other pitches Marlins swung at were either fouled off or put in play. That's wild in the strike zone.

LaRussa refused to speculate as to when Wellemeyer's next appearance would be, which based on his performance is a valid position.

The problem is, now the Cardinals are showing some cracks at the back end of the rotation. Wellemeyer hasn't been right all year, Lohse hasn't been right since getting hit by a pitch, Smoltz has shoulder tendinitis. So where does the team go from here? Hawksworth has nailed down a slot in the bullpen as the 6th/7th inning guy, so he's not an option. Boggs? Possible as the #4 guy, but that still leaves a hole at #5.

Do we dare give a start to Thompson?

I will say this, having a 9.5 game lead is a huge luxury right now. I'd not want to face these kinds of decisions only leading by 2 or 3 games.

And a quick word about Lohse. The PD is reporting today he had discomfort during and after his Saturday start, although an MRI he had Sunday was 'unexceptional'. Lohse still has 3 years remaining on a $41 million contract. Here's a radical thought: shut down Lohse for the season. He's ineffective and hasn't been able to heal - why risk more damage?

The Cardinals face a rookie left-hander today. Let's hope the offensive explosion from yesterday keeps going.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 10 (Cubs beat Milwaukee 2-0)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 4 (lost to Cincinnati 3-1)
- Milwaukee: 4 (lost to Cubs)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

Series Preview - Florida

2009-09-14T16:30:00.000-07:00

The Florida Marlins are the last NL team to make an appearance at Neo-Busch. The Cardinals took 2 of 3 in Florida in June.

This will be fans’ only opportunity to see the guy likely to mount the most serious challenge to Pujols’ MVP chase – Hanley Ramirez.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 84-60, 1st in NL Central, 9.5 games ahead of Chicago (8 on the loss side). After a month plus of .800 ball, the Cardinals were swept by Atlanta over the weekend. It was unrealistic to expect the team to continue playing at that high level, but 3 straight losses at home still stings. It’s their longest losing streak since mid-July.

Florida: 76-67, 2rd in NL East, 6.5 games behind Philadelphia. Florida also trails the Colorado Rockies by 4.5 games in the Wild Card chase. They have been playing good baseball since the All-Star break (30-23), and after treading water in August (14-14) they have won 8 of 12 in September. They have a lot of good pitchers, but are only 9th in the National League in pitching (as measured by ERA); if you’re a fan of FIP, they move up to 6th in the league. They’re also 10th in the NL in WHIP.

Pitching match-ups

14 September: Ricky Nolasco (11-8, 5.23) vs Todd Wellemeyer (7-9, 5.62). Nolasco has that high ERA, but he strikes out 4 times as many guys as he walks and has posted a FIP of 3.52 this season. He is prone to the long ball (20), which ties him for 18th in the NL with such luminaries as Jeff Suppan and Johan Santana. He has not faced the Cardinals this season. He’s faced St Louis 4 times in his career, the last time almost a year ago (5 Sep 08). He’s only got one decision in those outings (a loss way back in 2006), and the team is 1-2 in those starts (his first appearance was in relief).

As you may have seen reported here and elsewhere, John Smoltz was scheduled to start this game, but will be skipped due to shoulder tendonitis. LaRussa has decided to hand the ball to Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer’s only worked 3 major league innings since July 30th, so at least he’ll be well rested. Todd’s last start was 26 July at Philadelphia, where he went 5 2/3 allowing 5 ER and lost 9-2.

Focus on the positive. The Cardinals have won his last 3 starts against the Marlins. He’s unbeaten against them at Neo-Busch (1 start, but hey, we’re being positive). He faced them on June 11, allowing 5 ER in 6 innings (no decision, that’s not a loss – positive). He’s manhandled Hanley Ramirez in his career (1-6, 2 BB).

Two guys he won’t want to see in the lineup are Dan Uggla (4-7, HR, 2 RBI) and Ross Gload (2-4, 2 HR)

15 September: Sean West (6-5, 4.81) vs Wainwright (18-7,2.59). Sean is a 23-year old left-handed rookie who made his ML debut on 23 May. Fastball/slider/changeup are his pitches; he averages 91 on the fastball, 81 on the slider, and 83 on the change. He has a FIP of 4.56, meaning his ERA is pretty accurate. West has won his last 2 decisions, and the Marlins have won his last 4 starts, but he hasn’t survived the fifth in either of his September starts. Both of those starts were on the road (at Washington and Houston). This will be both his first start against the Cardinals and in St Louis.

Wainwright looks to continue marching towards his first 20-win season. Wainwright has never lost to the Marlins (2-0), and the Cardinals have never lost a game in which he appeared (5-0, including 3 Adam starts). He beat the Marlins on 10 June; it wasn’t his best effort (7 IP, 4 ER), but the Cardinals hung 13 runs on the Marlin staff that night so it didn’t really matter. Jeremy Hermida has had the most success (5-12, HR) of the 4 Marlins with at least 10 PA against him.

16 September: Josh Johnson (14-4, 3.06) vs Pineiro. Johnson is easily the ace of this staff. His 166 K’s is good enough for 11th in the league. He’s only surrendered 13 HR this season, and is barely allowing a runner an inning (1.110). He also sports a 3.10 FIP. Johnson has a heavy fastball that averages 95, which he throws 2/3 of the time. He also throws an 87 MPH slider about a quarter of the time, and occasionally flips an 88 MPH curveball up there.

He started the 9 June game that Florida eventually won 4-3, going 7 innings and allowing the 3 runs. He has only 1 other start against St Louis, which is also his only start in St Louis (lost 3-1 to Wainwright on 7 Sept 08).

Only Julio Lugo has more than 10 PA against him. Expanding the dataset to look at guys with 5+ PA, we find he’s handled AP (1-6, although the 1 is a HR), but Rick Ankiel has had success (3-4 with a double), which makes sense based on how good a fastball hitter Ankiel is.

I thought Pineiro was showing signs of fatigue, based on his 4.56 ERA over his last 7 starts. Then he goes out and gives up 1 ER in 7 innings (with 7 strikeouts) on Friday night. So much for that theory. Pineiro hopes to extend that dominance to this game. He has only started 1 game against Florida, which he won 4-2 on 11 Aug 08. All but 2 Marlins have 5 PA or less against him; Ramirez is 2-2.

Prognosis/prediction. This could be another tough series, but Marlin pitching isn’t as good as Brave pitching was. The Cardinals should handle Nolasco, might struggle against the lefty West, and Johnson/Pineiro is a toss-up. I’ll predict St Louis wins 2 of 3, but really it could easily go the other way.

Magic Number for Division Title: 11. Predicted Magic Number PM 9/13: 8.

Go Cards!

That Was Less Fun Than Expected

2009-09-14T06:34:00.000-07:00

Going into the Atlanta series, I thought their pitching could cause the Cardinals some trouble. I even went pessimistic with my predictions, saying Atlanta could win 2 of 3. But I didn't expect to get swept.

Not much to say about Friday's game. Pineiro was good, but Jurrjens was better. I remember thinking when Detroit decided to traid Jurrjens away for Renteria that the Braves had done quite well; Jurrjens looked good as a rookie in 2007, and was going to improve. He hasn't become the #2 starter I expected, yet, but he's only 23 years old, so it's not like he's over the hill or anything.

Saturday? Just frustrating. I've become so inured to the Cardinals not being on the Fox game of the week that I don't even look at the listings anymore, I just assume we'll get to watch the Mets or Yankees or Red Sox or some lousy game pitting two west coast teams. So I was somewhat surprised to turn the game on in the bottom of the fourth and see the Cardinals on. They were down 4-2 at that point.

Not seeing that it was a lazy Saturday afternoon, and that the kids had decided to take a nap (or at least remain in their respective rooms being quiet), I dozed for most of the next hour. Somehow I managed to wake up for the bottom half of each inning and watch the Cardinals strand 10000 runners on base through 8 innings.

And what a bizarre bottom of the eighth. Notwithstanding Franklin's blown save in the ninth, the Cardinals should have blown the game open in the eighth - Atlanta tried to hand them that game. First, though, proper kudos need to be given to Mark DeRosa. He caught a break on the passed ball, because McCann had a play on him at second if he doesn't double clutch the throw. The steal of third was genius. It also led the the rest of the inning; because of the steal, Bobby Cox brought the infield in, which meant that Molina's line drive was too hot for Escobar instead of an out and DeRosa was able to score the tying run.

Then the ridiculous started. Jones let's a ball get through the 5-hole. A blown flip on a double play grounder from Schumaker. A flat out miss of a tag on Schumaker going down the line, followed by LaRoche not throwing back down to second to try and get the out, giving the Cardinals the lead. AP walked intentionally. Too bad Holliday couldn't drive the final nail home, especially in light of how the ninth inning went.

I think we should be concerned about Franklin. I know he said all the right things about the extended layoff and he wasn't sharp, and he did buckle down after McCann's double gave Atlanta the lead again. Franklin not being right reshuffles the entire bullpen, and makes our shaky right-handed set-up problem that much worse. Let's hope his renewed concentration after the double is a sign of how he will pitch the rest of the season.

I have no idea what happened to Carpenter yesterday, but oof - that hurt. And Vasquez was as tough as expected on the Cardinals. Let's just move on.

I'll have a preview up later today on the Florida series (although it's already posted over at CardsClubhouse). Their pitching isn't quite the caliber of Atlanta's over the weekend, but they are starting Nolasco, a lefty rookie (first-time lefties typically make life difficult for St Louis), and Josh Johnson, so it won't get that much easier.

On to other news:

Magic Number Watch

Clinch Division: 11 (Cubs won 2 of 3 from Cincinnati)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston: 6 (took 2 of 3 from Pittsburgh)
- Milwaukee: 6 (swept Arizona)
- Cincinnati: ELIMINATED (lost 2 of 3 to Chicago)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

UCB Fantasy Baseball Playoffs:

You may remember me, a long time ago, mentioning that several Cardinal bloggers had bandied together to form a Head-to-head fantasy baseball league. I haven't talked much about it, because my draft was soo bad I ended up with no power at all to speak of from the 5 outfielders I was playing, and I spent most of the first half of the year fighting to get out of 1oth place in a 12-team league. But, since week 9, something changed with the team; I don't know if it was Derrek Lee remembering he doesn't suck, or the acquisitions of Michael Cuddyer and the Melky Cabrera, or the fact that my pitching staff (Oswalt, Carpenter, Lackey, Greinke, Blanton) have pitched their butts off. But I haven't lost a week since Week 8 (with 2 ties). It doesn't hurt having 2 Cy Young candidates in the rotation.

Also, I got smoked by the two best teams in the league the first time through, and returned the favor the second time; I was the first team in the league to hang a loss on the best team in the division (capably managed by Pip over at Fungoes), which led to a flurry of activity by him on the waiver wire (at least, that's the story I'm sticking with).

Anyway, I didn't want to jinx it. But I managed to climb out of the second division and finish third overall in the league, behind the aforementioned Fungoes and Matt Leach, who blogs for mlb.com. Not too shabby.

I faced off against Dan over at C70 at the bat, and despite a horrendous week from my pitching, I managed to survive, winning 5-3-2. Next up? Leach's team. I got him the last time when my team was hot, so we'll see how things go this time around. No matter what, however, I won't finish worse than 4th in the playoffs, and that's cool. We came a long way, baby.

Series Preview - Atlanta

2009-09-11T16:30:00.000-07:00

The Cardinals invite Atlanta in for their annual appearance at the stadium. St Louis took 2 of 3 from the Braves in April.

Again with the weird scheduling. Atlanta and Florida are the only remaining NL teams not to visit St Louis in 2009, but both will appear in town over the next week.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 84-57, 1st in NL Central, 11.5 games ahead of Chicago (10 on the loss side). St Louis returns from a 5-1 road trip, which saw Carpenter dominate, Pujols turn white hot, and Holliday skin his knees.

Atlanta: 72-68, 3rd in NL East, 8 games behind Philadelphia. Atlanta continues to have a pulse in the Wild Card as well, but they trail Colorado by 8.5 games, and there are three other teams they need to hurdle to get in. The Braves are a sub-500 team in regulation (62-63), but 9-5 when the game is shortened or extended. They also limp into St Louis having lost 6 of their last 7.

Pitching match-ups

11 September: Jair Jurrjens (10-10, 2.93) vs Pineiro. This is a rematch of the 27 April game, won by the Cardinals 3-2. Jurrjens went six that day, allowing 2 ER on 6 hits, striking out 2 and walking 2. Jurrjens is an ace in waiting. Atlanta acquired him from Detroit after the 2007 season for Edgar Renteria. Fastball, change-up, slider are his pitches, and he mainly throws the fastball and changeup. Jurrjens has pitched better than his 10-10 record would indicate. He strikes out about 6 hitters a game, twice as many as he walks, has a BABIP of .278 this hear and a FIP of 3.79. Jurrjens is 0-2 lifetime against St Louis in 2 career starts.

Atlanta has lost his last 3 starts, and scored a total of 4 runs in those games.

Pineiro has started to wobble a little bit since his dominating July. His ERA over his last 7 starts is 4.56, and he’s allowed an OPS of .709. In his first twenty 2009 starts, his ERA was 2.84 and the allowed OPS was .635. I think this is cause for concern. He’s also allowed a HR in 4 of his last 6 games, after allowing 3 in his first 21.

Joel is 1-1, 6.75 in 6 career appearances (3 starts) against Atlanta.

12 September: Tim Hudson (1-0, 2.19) vs Lohse. Hudson is back after Tommy John surgery, and has made 2 starts so far. He has a 3-2, 4.74 career mark in 6 starts against St Louis; his last start was August 25, 2007 in St Louis, and he lost that day 5-4. He throws everything but the kitchen sink, but features the fastball and a cutter (they account for 75% of his pitches). Of the rest, he throws the curveball/split finger/change with about equal frequency (7% or so). Of guys with 10 or more Plate Appearances against him, AP has had the most success (.412/.588/1.062). You probably could have guessed that.

This is a huge start for Lohse and the Cardinals. With the Smoltz ceiling returning to normal (around 5 IP, around 3 ER), and Pineiro starting to struggle, the Cardinals need Lohse to return to form. This will be his first start since 21 August in San Diego. We’ll just have to cross our fingers and hope he’s finally well. Depending on Pineiro’s start, of course, which will determine who’s available in the bullpen Saturday, I’d be surprised if Lohse went more than 5 innings.

Lohse is 2-1, 4.15 career against Atlanta in 6 total starts. There are a couple of Braves that have mandhandled him (min 10 PA): Chipper Jones (.556/.667/1.111), Ryan Church (.462/.500/.769), and Garrett Anderson, perhaps surprisingly (.360/.407/.600)

13 September: Javier Vasquez (12-9, 3.06) vs Carpenter. I believe this is ESPN’s Sunday night game, and should be a good one; too bad most of the country will be staring at Chicago/Green Bay on NBC. Vasquez is the seasoned vet on this staff, having started his ML career in 1994 with the Expos. He was acquired by Atlanta from the White Sox for 4 prospects last off-season. He’s a fastball/slider/curveball pitcher, but he’s throwing fewer fastballs and more curves this season than previously, and his curveball is a weapon (if I’m reading his pitch type values correctly). He is 0-1 this year against St Louis, victimized by three consecutive two-out singles in the sixth that scored 3 runs and erased a 3-2 Braves lead.

He’s had very little career success against the Cardinals, going 2-7 with a 4.21 ERA in 10 starts. He has two complete games against St Louis. Four Cardinals have more than 10 plate appearances against him: AP (.412/.412/1.118), DeRosa (.320/.393/.833), Lugo (.267/.313/.733), and Glaus (.214/.313/.813)

Statistical Oddity. Vasquez’s three longest starts (by innings) against St Louis, and both of his complete games, were in a losing effort.

Carpenter had a dominating start against Milwaukee. Some think it may not his best start this season, much less by a Cardinal (the principal difference is walks issued). Great topic to debate. Carpenter didn’t pitch against Atlanta in April – that series happened while he was on the DL. He has a winning career mark against them at 2-1, but he’s given up 18 ER, and 4 HR, in 29 2/3 innings pitched. The only NL team that’s given him more trouble is Philadelphia.

That said, the Cardinals have won the last 5 games he’s started against Atlanta, although he’s only made one start opposing the Braves since 2006 (30 July 08), and he only threw 4 innings that day – it was his first start since Opening Day 2007. Only Garrett Anderson and Nate McLouth have more than 10 plate appearances against them. McLouth is hitting a robust .083; Anderson has had slightly more success (2 doubles, HR, .846 OPS).

Prognosis/prediction. This could be a tough series. The Braves starters are solid. With Lohse trying to find his way, Pineiro struggling a little bit, and Holliday slightly nicked up, the Cardinals could struggle. Carpenter and AP being white hot will help. We’ll err on the side of caution and say St Louis drops 2 of three this weekend.

Predicted Magic Number PM 9/13: 10.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 12 (Cubs off yesterday)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston - 7 (lost to Atlanta 9-7)
- Milwaukee - 6 (off yesterday)
- Cincinnati - 2 (lost to Colorado 5-1)
- Pittsburgh - ELIMINATED

An Easy Date to Remember

2009-09-11T08:16:00.001-07:00

I've never understood how some people have trouble remembering dates for major events in their life. If it was life-changing, if it was important, if it evokes a pleasant memory, one would think that would be an easy date to hold on to, to attach to whatever memory you keep.

That said, some dates are easier to remember than others.

Today is the third anniversary of me starting this little ol' blog. I started it because it the 2006 Cardinals were turning into the 1964 Phillies, and I wanted to comment, but also because I'd long talked about doing a blog, and my wife finally said 'put up or shut up'. Be careful what you wish for, honey.

It's also the eighth anniversary of this.

Photo downloaded from Fox News

Which makes it easy to remember for me.

When I was a kid, my parents used to talk about how they remembered where they were the day Kennedy was shot, and what a reality-altering event that was for their generation. I never quite understood that sentiment until 9/11/01.

I don't remember every detail of that day, but I do remember where I was and what I was doing - underway on USS HELENA (SSN-725), in the middle of a Tactical Readiness Evaluation.

SSN-725 returning from a successful deployment (undated)

You probably remember waking up that morning and staring, transfixed, at the television set while the events in New York/DC/PA unfolded. Now imagine being more than 12 miles off the coast, with no media connectivity, getting information sporadically. We new something was amiss when we came up to talk with folks ashore in preparation for the morning's exercise and there was no one on the other end of the circuit. This was followed, in the next few hours, by our exercise being cancelled and the DEFCON being raised to the highest level anyone of us (including the Captain and Commodore of our squadron, who was on board) had ever seen.

Tension abounded. What the hell had happened?

Peacemeal reporting went like this: A Cessna crashed into the World Trade Center. Then we were told it was a learjet. Then, a passenger plane and both towers were down. This was the raw data coming straight out of the radio room to control, where I was.

Once the full impact of the attack was realized on board, there wasn't a lot of anger. But there was a lot of excitement. Why? Because based on our operational condition, we expected to be one of the first boats sent West to respond. Which meant we could do something about those attacks, bring the fight to the people who had attacked the US and killed so many. Those '9-11 LETS ROLL' stickers/shirts you might remember coming out right after the attacks? That's how we felt. The Squadron Torpedoman stopped me in Middle Level and said "Two words: Parking. Lot." Well, that would have been a bit of an overresponse, but it succinctly captured the mood. Let's Roll.

Flags are at half-mast today to remember the victims of the attack. For me, it is another reminder of how the world has changed since that day, and how many of my comrades in arms have given their lives defending this country these past eight years, so there isn't a repeat of 9/11/01. Remember all of them today.

And if you see a man/woman in uniform today, they may appear to be walking a little taller, their jaw set, moving with more purpose than usual. Because we remember too. We may have joined before 9/11, but the task put before us since that morning is the reason we serve, and the reason we fight.

We'll return to the Cardinals tomorrow.

Albert Rides Shotgun For The Wagonmaker

2009-09-10T06:26:00.000-07:00

Busy day today - AM loaded with meetings, awards and evaluations to finalize, so this will be short. I present the first ever Stan Musial's Stance haiku game summary:

Pujols twice
Wainwright resurgent
Closing on Autumn

Magic Number Watch

Clinch Division: 12 (Cubs beat Pittsburgh 8-5)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Houston : 8 (beat Atlanta 2-1)
- Milwaukee: 6
- Cincinnati: 3 (lost to Colorado 4-3)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

Other news: Holliday has an owie, DeRosa to have off-season surgery on his wrist. From the sound of it, Holliday won't miss any time, although he will be investing in bacitracin and dance lessons. DeRosa's off-season surgery has been hinted at for a while, so that's no surprise. Let's hope he gets the procedure done early in the off-season so he's ready to go come spring training (in other words, don't pull a Glaus).

Off-day today, Atlanta over the weekend.

How Badly Did We Need a Holliday?

2009-09-09T06:57:00.000-07:00

Apparently, pretty badly.

Statistics are interesting because they can highlight trends or factoids not normally made plain to the casual fan (i.e., me). Here's my current favorite one: St Louis is 31-11 since acquiring Holliday from the A's. Here's a close second, although it qualifies more as a factoid: the Cardinals have not lost ground in the Central since taking over the outright lead in the division on August 7. Of course, it hasn't hurt they've gone 24-6 over that stretch (.800 baseball).

Trevor Hoffman is one of the best closers in baseball who, as a mostly San Diego resident, I've had the pleasure of watching pitch for most of his career. His fastball isn't what it once was (most forget he used to routinely hit 92-95 with it before the arm surgery), but that change up is still devastating. That said, he is susceptible to the long ball, which Holliday provided last night. The loss won't affect Hoffman - one doesn't accumulate 584 saves without knowing how to put a bad outing behind one - but the win will affect the Cardinals, who rightfully believe they are never out of a game, and are becoming more and more comfortable with the idea they don't need to rely solely on AP to deliver in high-leverage situations.

I'm hope the Cardinals don't face Manny Parra again this season. I may have to create the Manny Parra Effect to describe what happens to Redbird bats when he pitches or is scheduled to pitch. How else to explain a guy who's 2-1, sub-2.4 ERA against STL and 8-9, 7.49 against everyone else? Even when he leaves the game early (neck spasms, day-to-day), the Cardinals can't solve Brewer pitching.

Cardinals look to win the series today.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 13 (Cubs beat Pirates 9-4)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee - 8
- Houston - 8 (Lost to Atlanta 2-1)
- Cincinnati - 5 (Lost to Colorado 3-1)
- Pittsburgh - ELIMINATED

Current Cardinal Brendan Ryan sports #13. Before him the immortal Sidney Ponson stretched the number across his prodigious backside (2006).

Other news:

- Cardinals are reportedly very interested in bringing Mark DeRosa back for next year. Money quote:

"Recognizing where we are, the thought is we'll talk about it and that we're still hopeful that he's someone we could sign and bring back," Mozeliak said. "He's a very valuable person to this club."

Given his reputation as a leader on whatever club he plays for (as reported in various media stories about what's wrong with the Cubs, as well as ancedotal conversations with people having insight into the Cubs locker room), I view this as a good move.

- Rasmus is suffering from a sore heel/achillies tendon. This sounds like plantar fascitis to me. Granted, I'm not a doctor, and the media reporting on his injury is probably purposefully vague, but left heel/foot pain and a sore achillies plagued me earlier this year; when I went to the podiatrist, he diagnosed plantar fascitis, and prescribed shoe inserts (which, incidentally, have helped). So I'm willing to bet that's Rasmus' problem too. It didn't bother me when I was hitting, but it did when I pushed off to chase flyballs, etc, in the OF.

- Lohse to rotation, Boggs to bullpen. Came up in the comments yesterday. Boggs pitched much better his last time out against Pittsburgh, and was serviceable in his previous start vs Milwaukee, so he's not being shifted due to a lack of performance. I think LaRussa wants to see Lohse pitch to determine his availability and effectiveness going into the playoffs. This is a sensible and rational move. A healthy Lohse, pitching like he did last season and in April 09, is a big asset and a dangerous #3/4 starter - more so than anyone else the Cardinals can run out there, including Smoltz (more on him in a moment). The team needs to know what they've got with Lohse going forward in 2009. I think Lohse will make 4 starts the rest of the year and then we'll see what the team does in the playoffs.

- Smoltz's line yesterday - 5 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K. We talked earlier about his first two starts being aided by the weak lineups he was facing. Against a good hitting team his last 2 starts, he's given up 3 ER in each start (it just happened to be the same team). This is the level of performance we should expect to get from a John Smoltz start at this point in his career. The problem is each of his starts taxes the bullpen, in that they need to get up to 12 outs.

Now granted, the Cardinals have thrown the fewest relief innings in the NL this season (372.0 -next lowest is San Francisco at 386.2), so bullpen burnout isn't as serious an issue as it may be for the Dodgers, but in the short series playoff format, burning out the pen in one game can hamstring LaRussa for subsequent games, and potentially bring on unfavorable matchups or cost the team a game. So I believe Smoltz will be used exclusively in relief once the post season starts, even if Lohse remains lousy these next 3 weeks.

Mid-Series Review - Milwaukee

2009-09-07T21:18:00.001-07:00

We just played these guys last week, so generating another preview seemed silly.

Especially since two of the pitching matchups are the same (Carp vs Bush, Smoltz/Parra).

So, we'll just talk about Wainwright vs Suppan.

Suppan (6-8, 4.97) has had a tough year, but has been tough on the Cardinals. In his three starts against them this year he's 1-1 (team 2-1) . Jeff has been positively awful at home this season (2-6, 6.19); he's made 12 starts in Milwaukee and thrown 64 total innings, meaning he averages 5 1/3 innings a start. He's also pitched worse since the All-Star Break, allowing over 2 baserunners an inning, walking a ton of guys, and an HR an game. Hard to believe he's only 34.

Wainwright turned in his shortest outing since April 11, and gave up the most runs he's allowed since June 21 at Kansas City (5 ER). His next start after the KC game he went 7, allowed 2 ER and lost to Minnesota. I would expect him to rebound from his Pittsburgh start and get back to the form he's shown these past 2 months. Wainwright is 10-1 on the road this year (13 starts), is 2-1 against Milwaukee this season (both wins in Miller Park), and is 4-3 with a 2.28 ERA career against the Brewers.

Masterful

2009-09-07T20:04:00.000-07:00

I remember, not so long ago, ESPN broadcast baseball games all day on Labor Day. In fact, I remember watching the Cardinals/Astros game on Labor Day 1996, which was (a) a great game, (b) a game the Cardinals won, and (c) when I knew the Cardinals would win the NL Central that year.

Thanks to the first weekend of CollegeFootball now extending from Friday to Monday, as sponsors continue to grovel at the altar of Ba'al - WHOOPS, I mean The Almighty Dollar - there was no baseball on TV today locally. Except Padres/Giants. Whoopee.

So I'm limited to seeing the score crawl across the screen. 3-0 Cardinals doesn't tell one much, other than the Cards won. Then the line comes up - 'Carpenter - CG, H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K' - and I think, wow. That's fantastic, and will certainly help my UCB Fantasy League team in the playoffs (sorry Dan, it's not your year).

In an unrelated story, Carlos Pena breaking two fingers today pretty much ends my chances of winning my work rotisserie league. I was in second, and closing, going into today. CC Sabathia pitches for the team I'm chasing. Coincidence? I think not!

I read the game summary, and was floored. 99 pitches? Two balls hit OUT OF THE INFIELD the entire game against him? My gosh, that's incredible. Carpenter has thrown only one other 1-hitter, a memorable game against his original team, the Blue Jays. He had a certain motivation in that game - he was healthy, Toronto kinda gave up on him - and he dominated them. This game? Carpenter proved, again, how good he is this season.

I just wish I could have seen it.

And again, people who think Lincecum is a slam-dunk to win the Cy Young in 2009 aren't really paying attention. That's no disrespect to Tim Lincecum, but an acknowledgement of how good Chris Carpenter has been this year.

So, the Cards inch closer to their first playoff appearance since winning the whole thing 3 years ago. Let's go to the tote board:

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 14 (Cubs beat Pittsburgh 4-2)

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee: 10
- Houston: 10 (Beat Philadelphia 4-3)
- Cincinnati: 7 (Lost to Colorado 4-3)
- Pittsburgh: ELIMINATED

I've adjusted my numbers from the last post due to a math error on my part. Based on these new numbers, the Cubs victory over Pittsburgh eliminates the Pirates from the divisional race. But, we have a nice parting gift: they're still alive for the Wild Card.

Smoltz vs Manny Parra tomorrow. Parra's pitched better against St Louis then he has vs the rest of the league, and the Brewers beat Smoltz in his last start.

Cardinals rest everybody, push Pirates to the brink

2009-09-06T08:33:00.001-07:00

You know LaRussa sat everyone when AP is available to pinch hit in the tenth inning. And AP said all the right things at the post-game conference after launching the winning HR deep into the Pittsburgh night. But you know that blast came with an extra amount of satisfaction for him, given that Capps had hit him with a pitch the last time they faced each other.

Although the Cardinals rested most of their regulars, that shouldn't take away from the effort 'Der' Olhendorf turned in yesterday. Without the error in the sixth inning, he might have won this game 1-0. Four hits and 11 K's over eight innings is a fantastic effort. I knew he had pitched well in his previous 2 starts at home, but I didn't go far enough back to realize how dominant he'd been at home this season.

And give Mitchell Boggs credit. For a guy most talking heads (and the Cardinals in-dugout staff, from all indications) thought didn't have it to get deep into games, Boggs' seven inning effort was at least an indication he may have what it takes to stay at the ML level in the rotation. His Washington start was servicable, this one was better.

Cards go for the sweep today. LA won last night, so St Louis also remains tied for best record in the league (81-56).

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 17 (Cubs won yesterday 5-3).

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee - 13 (lost 3-2 to San Francisco)
- Houston - 13 (beat Philadelphia 5-4)
- Cincinnati - 10 (beat Atlanta 3-1)
- Pittsburgh - 2

17 is Dizzy Dean's number. View his statistics here. His HOF plaque can be seen here.

Cardinals swamp Pirates, tie for best record in NL

2009-09-05T08:41:00.000-07:00

Well Adam Wainwright didn't burnish his Cy Young credentials last night, but given his sustained superior performance these past 2 months, I think he's due a hiccup, don't you?

He did notch his ML leading 17th win which, given the way the voting tends to go, may have helped his case out anyway.

Thanks to the Padres shutting out LA 2-0, and the Phillies being shut out by Houston 7-0, St Louis passed Philadelphia and is even with LA for best record in the league, with 26 games to go.

Magic Number Watch:

Clinch Division: 18

Eliminate Rivals:
- Milwaukee - 15
- Houston - 14
- Cincinnati - 11
- Pittsburgh - 4

New feature: I will highlight the last Cardinal to wear the uniform number of their magic number each day. Would you believe no Cardinal has worn #18 in 13 years? The last - Luis Alicea, for the 1996 NL Central Champs. It was his last year as a Cardinal. He played for another six years, all in the AL (1 with the Angels, 3 with Texas, the last 2 with KC). Alicea is currently the first base coach for the NY Mets.

Finally, my long month of travel is over, so I should be at the computer more often as the season winds up to the 2009 Playoffs. If you've missed my distinctive writing style, fear not: the nonsense and sarcasm will be front and center these next few weeks.

Series Preview - Pittsburgh

2009-09-03T20:12:00.000-07:00

Three items before we get into the preview:

1. Congratulations to Chris Carpenter on being named NL Pitcher of the Month for August. In 6 starts he averaged just over 7 innings a start, had a WHIP of 1.000, a SO/BB ratio of 5.40, and an OPS against of .591. Truly dominant.

How does that compare to the Wagonmaker? 6 starts, averaged just under 7 innings a start, WHIP 0.9113, SO/BB ratio of 7.25, OPS against of .548.

What about Lincecum? 6 starts, just over 7 innings a start, WHIP of 1.007, SO/BB ratio of 2.79, OPS against of .513.

Anyone telling you the NL Cy Young award is a slam-dunk for Lincecum just isn't paying attention to how well Carpenter/Wainwright are pitching right now.

2. The AP wire report on today's Cardinal game says Manny Parra is 3-1 against St Louis this season. Here's what's true: Parra has started 4 games against the Cardinals. Here's what's not: He was 1-1 (with a ND that the Brewers lost) in the previous 3 starts. So he's now 2-1 against St Louis. AP regrets the error.

3. Smoltz went 6 today and gave up 4 ER. I saw that crawl across the ticker and thought, well, that's about what we should have expected. I didn't realize until reading the game summary he was a botched double play, and then one bad pitch, away from winning that game. So perhaps Smoltz is back as a starter. That's great news.

On to the preview:

The Cardinals return to Pittsburgh for a three-game set. St Louis has won 8 of the 12 meetings this season, taking 4 of 6 at home and at PNC Park. Should the Redbirds sweep this series, they will (a) assure Pittsburgh of yet another losing season (their 18th straight), and (b) eliminate the Pirates from the NL Central race.

Mostly well-known tidbit: Pittsburgh has been horrendous on the road (18-48 going into Wednesday night’s action) but pretty good at home (35-29). In fact, their home record is 6th best in the League, behind SF, STL, LA, the Cubs, and Colorado.

Also, when did teams quit playing 4-game series over Labor Day? Is this a memory from a previous life, or was the Sunday before Labor Day always a travel day?

Finally, the Pirates must hate when the Cardinals come calling; this is the third time this year they’ll play the Cardinals while in the middle of a long losing streak (currently at 7 and counting).

Current snapshot

St Louis: 78-56, 1st in NL Central, 10.5 games ahead of Chicago (9 on the loss side). St Louis just finished a 7-2 homestand, they own the biggest divisional lead in baseball, and only the Yankees have a higher probability of making the playoffs at this point (99.8 to 99.1), and that Holliday trade? Yeah that’s worked out pretty well.

Pittsburgh: 53-79, last in NL Central, 25 games back. Hey, at least this time around their lineup hasn’t undergone a drastic makeover since the last time the Cardinals played them. Not much to celebrate in Pittsburgh these days, but they did look positively frisky against the Phillies last week. Must have been a maximum effort, since they’ve lost 7 straight since…

Pitching match-ups

4 September: Wainwright vs Kevin “Don’t Call Me Bo” Hart (4-4, 4.34). Hart was acquired by the Pirates in the Grabow/Gorzelanny trade. He was 3-1 when the Pirates got him, and then, possibly depressed by going from a team with a legendary record of futility to a team taking a dump on its proud legacy, forgot how to pitch. Hart has been awful as a Pirate. ERA of 6.04, people reach base against him 40% of the time, OPS of .917, 4 HR allowed in 5 games (after allowing 3 in his 8 with the Cubs), and so on. He’s thrown a total of 4 innings against the Cardinals in his career; 4 hits, 2 BB, 5 K’s, and 1 ER overall. No starts against St Louis, and his most recent appearance was in a mop-up role during a 12-6 Cardinal beat-down of Chicago last 19 September (that was Zambrano getting the early shower).

5 September: Boggs vs Ross ”Der” Ohlendorf (11-9, 4.17). The name Ohlendorf is definitely German, but I have no idea what it means. Ohlendorf leads the Pirates in wins, but is 7th in the NL allowing HR (23 this season). He has 3 starts against St Louis this season, and is 1-2, but his lone win was at home on May 13 by a 5-2 count. Those are also the sum total of appearances against the Redbirds he’s made in his career. He allows about 1 in every 3 baserunners to reach, and teams are slugging .788 against him.

Even Mitchell Boggs couldn’t derail the current Cardinal hot streak. He beat Washington on Saturday 9-4, thanks to the Cardinals staking him to an early 7-2 lead. Boggs has started twice against Pittsburgh this season; he didn’t get out of the fifth in either appearance, but the Cardinals won both games.

Statistical Oddity: In each start against the Pirates he faced exactly 21 hitters and left with a 2-run lead. He had the same number of pitches called strikes (13) in each start. Spooky.

6 September: Pineiro vs Paul “Mahalo” Maholm (7-8, 4.67). Maholm is 1-1 against St Louis this year, pitching into the seventh both starts, so he should pitch better than his statistics say he will. His last two starts at home against the NL were superlative, allowing 1 ER in each (7 2/3 and 7 innings respectively), but got hit hard his last road start in Cincinnati (4 ER in 5 IP, loss). However, he’s become prone to the long ball, allowing at least 1 HR in 6 of his 9 starts since the All-Star Break (or put another way, he’s allowed 14 HR this season but 9 since the break). So he might be competitive, but I’d expect some Cardinal to find the seats against him.

I thought Pineiro was due for a bad start, and expected it to be against the Brewers; he did allow 4 runs, but got the win anyway. His season has been one of streaks; 4 wins to start, then lost 9 of 11 decisions, and has now won 8 straight decisions (including his last 5 starts). Can he continue to win? Against this team, probably. He lost to a completely different Pirates team on May 17 (5-2), but beat this version 7-3 on August 9th.

Prognosis/prediction. We are better than this AAAA team. Cardinals should sweep.

Magic Number for Division Title: 20.

Go Cards!

Series Preview - Milwaukee

2009-09-01T09:43:00.000-07:00

The Cardinals have 30 games left and will play almost a third of those against Milwaukee. St Louis concludes this homestand with a series against the Brewers. This will be the first series against the Brewers since July 7-9.

Milwaukee leads the season series 5-4.

Today's Tidbit: 1 September is the 70th anniversary of the Nazi invasion of Poland, which set off World War II. When the war ended, the Germans and Polish negotiated a cease fire, but no peace treaty was signed until German Re-unification happened.

See? Didn't know that did you? And you thought this was just a baseball blog.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 77-55, 1st in NL Central, 10.5 games ahead of Chicago (9 on the loss side). St Louis has won 4 of 5 on the homestand after sweeping the Nationals over the weekend. They’ve won 14 of 17 overall and are currently the hottest team in baseball. They trail Philadelphia by 2 games for the best record in the league.

Milwaukee: 64-66, 3rd in NL Central, 12 games back (11 on the loss side). Milwaukee is, for all practical purposes, out of the playoff race. They recently put several of their veterans through waivers, including Trevor Hoffman. They followed up being swept by the Reds with sweeping from Pittsburgh.

Pitching match-ups

1 September: Piniero vs Braden Looper (11-6, 4.88). Looper has the best winning percentage and second best ERA of the Brewer starters. Still, I don’t think he’d call this one of his better years. He’s surrendered 32 home runs this season, worst in baseball; he’s allowing two HR per game. He faced the Cardinals on 18 May, winning 8-4. annan is listed as the Nationals ace on Baseball Reference. He has a 4.72 FIP in 160 innings this season. Lannan features a high-80s fastball he throws 2/3 of the time, and a smattering of off-speed pitches he throws about evenly (slider, curveball, changeup). Looks like his changeup might be his best pitch, but he only throws it about 10% of the time. He’s 0-2 career against St Louis, but based on his ERA (2.84) he’s pitched well in those games.

Pineiro looks to win his 14th game of the season. He beat Milwaukee 5-1 on 9 July (game described later in the Manny Parra section) and is 2-0 career against the Brewers.

2 September: Dave Bush (3-5, 5.88) vs Carpenter. Dave Bush has not faced the Cardinals in 2009. For his career he’s 2-4 with a 6.06 ERA in 6 career starts, including an 0-2, 7.50 mark at Neo-Busch. He came back off the DL on 27 August to start against the Reds; he didn’t survive the fifth and lost 8-5. In fact, the last time he pitched into the sixth inning was June 4.

Chris Carpenter? Carp has won 10 of his last 12 starts, and the only reason he hasn’t won 12 of 12 is because the bullpen blew two leads late against the Astros. He’ll go for his 15th win on Wednesday. Milwaukee is one of the few teams to give him trouble throughout his career; he’s only 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.37 ERA against them in seven starts. His only start against them was on 7 May; he threw 8 shutout innings against Yovani Gallardo and got a no decision (that game ended 1-0 Milwaukee in extras)

3 September: Manny Parra (9-10,6.66) vs Smoltz. Manny Parra’s last start against the Cardinals was a gem – 7 innings pitched, one hit, left with a 1-0 lead. This, based on his season to that date, was an anomaly. Parra has a world of talent but has been battered this season by the NL. The Cardinals came back to win that game 5-1; AP doubled in the go-ahead run, and Ludwick followed with a 3-run bomb to seal it. That comeback led to some hilarity on the Brewer airwaves; after the HR Bob Uecker started exhorting Brewer fans not togive up (as fans started streaming for the exits), saying ‘there’s a lot of baseball left, folks’ among other things. When he realized it was futile, he launched into a long discussion of Cardinal greats, guys he had played with or watched, making calling the game secondary. I guess it’s only hilarious if you were a Cardinal fan listening to the broadcast.

Manny is 1-1 in his other 2 starts this season against the Cardinals, but his win was at Neo-Busch on 17 May. For his career he’s made 4 starts at the stadium, and that decision is the only one he’s gotten.

This is the start where Smoltz proves if his previous two efforts were a realistic presentation of his current ability, or driven by the weak lineups he faced.

Prognosis/prediction. Sometimes you don’t want a day off, especially when you’re rolling along. The Cardinals are rolling along. Based on the way they have pitched since the All-Star Break, the pitching match-ups heavily favor the Cardinals, but the Brewers can still mash, and they always rise to the occasion when they face the Cardinals.

Cards drop the first game, then win the next 2 to take the series.

Go Cards!

John Smoltz the second coming of Christ?

2009-08-29T08:05:00.000-07:00

Smoltz's numbers since returning to the National League are somewhat ridiculous:

7 hits, 1 walk, 15 strikeouts, 1 run, 0.82 ERA in 11 innings pitched. These are Cliff Lee with the Philadelphia Phillies-sized numbers.

Before we start falling all over ourselves trying to slap each other on the back, and fund public works projects to erect statues and archways in celebration of his magnificence, let's remember that Smoltz has worked these miracles against the Padres and Nationals.

You know, two of the 3 worst teams in the NL.

I'd be much more inclined to drink the Kool Aid if he had performed these feats against the Dodgers and Marlins, for example.

I'm not saying to discount what he's done; but let's be cautious out there.

Series Preview - Washington

2009-08-28T11:46:00.000-07:00

Did you know the Red Sox released Chris Duncan? They did, on 20 August. I didn't know it until yesterday, either.

Maybe that's why Dave Duncan took a personal day earlier this week.

Anywho, here's the series preview on the Nationals.

The Cardinals welcome the Nationals to town for their annual visit.

Mostly well-known tidbit: Washington used to be the Montreal Expos, but wherever this franchise plays they give the Cardinals fits. Since 1985, St Louis is 139-136 against them (including this season). The only NL teams causing more heartburn amongst Cardinal fans are Colorado (73-74), Atlanta (115-119), and the Mets (130-151). All three of those teams have been to at least one World Series in the period selected. The Expo/National franchise hasn’t made the playoffs since 1981. In other words, I can’t figure out why the Nationals give St Louis so much trouble.

On a positive note, the Cardinals took 3 of the 4 games in DC this season.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 74-55, 1st in NL Central, 9 games ahead of Chicago (7 on the loss side). Cardinals have won 11 of their last 14, including 2 of 3 from Houston to start this homestand. Assuming they play .500 the rest of the way (17-16), they’ll win 91 games. Chicago would need to go 29-8 just to catch the Cardinals. It’s prudent to not say the divisional race is over, but, if I were the Cubs I wouldn’t be planning to print playoff tickets for 2009.

Washington: 46-82, last in NL East, 28.5 games back of Philadelphia. They are on pace to lose 104 games, but have played better since Manny Acta was fired (20-21 under Jim Riggleman) and they just took 2 of 3 from the Cubs. They are 14-11 in August.

Key Nationals

Adam Dunn. Leads the league in walks. 34 HR puts him 5th in the NL, and a .995 OPS is 4th. He’s a horrible defensive outfielder (-20.7 UZR), but he’s still been worth 2.1 WAR this season. Bats cleanup.

Ryan Zimmerman. Check out this item over at fangraphs. He was the 4th pick in the 2005 draft and hasn’t disappointed. Hits third.

Nyjer Morgan. He has really flourished since coming over from the Pirates in early July, reaching base almost 40% of the time and swiping bases at a 77% success rate. He’s been a 5 WAR player this season, and you’ve probably not heard much else about him.

Mike MacDougal. Closer, and has 14 saves with a 1.98 ERA. He has a high walk rate, his SO/BB ratio is 1.0, and his FIP is 4.51 (his career average is 3.99). Only Joe Beimel and Julian Tavarez have a better mark among Nationals relievers. He is allowing 1.48 runners per inning, which is a bit high for a back of the game reliever.

Pitching match-ups

28 August: Smoltz vs John Lannan (8-9, 4.03). Lannan is listed as the Nationals ace on Baseball Reference. He has a 4.72 FIP in 160 innings this season. Lannan features a high-80s fastball he throws 2/3 of the time, and a smattering of off-speed pitches he throws about evenly (slider, curveball, changeup). Looks like his changeup might be his best pitch, but he only throws it about 10% of the time. He’s 0-2 career against St Louis, but based on his ERA (2.84) he’s pitched well in those games.

Smoltz looked fantastic against the Padres on Sunday. I don’t know what to expect; that Smoltz or the 2009 Red Sox Smoltz. We’ll hope he doesn’t revert to his Red Sox form.

29 August: Boggs vs Craig Stammen (4-6, 5.08). This is Stammen’s first year in the bigs, and Saturday will be the righthander’s first start against St Louis. Stammen is a fastball/curveball guy; his fastball averages 89 mph, his curveball 79. He carries a respectable .283 BABIP, and he strikes out slightly twice as many as he walks. He also averages 3 ground ball outs for every 2 fly ball outs he surrenders. He’s given up 13 HR in 101 innings, so that’s something to watch for. He hasn’t pitched especially well in august (.300 average against, 7.25 ERA), but he did win his last start against Milwaukee.

Mitchell Boggs returns to the rotation thanks to Lohse’s injury. He lost his last start in LA on 18 August. He has one start against the Nationals, going 6, surrendering 4 runs, and getting a no decision on 30 April (Cardinals won 9-4).

30 August: Wainwright vs Garrett Mock (3-5, 5.23). Mock was inserted into the Nationals starting rotation on 19 July, and he is 3-3 with a 4.69 ERA since transitioning from the bullpen. Like Lannan, he features a fastball (averaging just a tick under 92 MPH) 2/3 of the time, and throws a slider, changeup, or curveball at almost equal frequency (between 10-15% of his pitches). The righthander has never faced the Cardinals.

Wainwright just keeps rolling along. He’ll go for the major league lead in wins on Sunday. I know most prognosticators predict/expect Tim Lincecum to win the CY Young, and he has had an outstanding year; but Wainwright should get some serious consideration.

Statistical Oddity. Wainwright has thrown 11 consecutive starts allowing 2 or fewer runs. If he continues that Sunday, it will be the longest streak since Gibson’s in 1968. It is the longest streak by a Cardinal since 2002, when Andy Benes did it (July 16 to September 12).

Prognosis/prediction. Cardinals are at home facing two pitchers for the first time, and they’re in a bit of a funk offensively. They should win Sunday, probably will win Friday, and might win Saturday. This would be a good series for the bats to come back to life, so we’ll predict they take 2 of 3 from the Nationals.

Go Cards!

AFTERMATH - Annual Trek to Petco

2009-08-26T20:13:00.000-07:00

Oh man, a lot has happened since my last post. We'll stick to Sunday's game, but first some background.

I returned from a business trip last Thursday to find . . . my Mom waiting for me at the airport. This might seem normal until I tell you she lives 1500 miles from me. But that was just the beginning. Several other members of my extended family had also flown in.

Seems my wife had planned a big shindig to celebrate a milestone birthday of mine. Never mind which milestone birthday that is.

Anywho, she had told me we had tickets to Sunday's game at Petco, as I mentioned. She never told me where we were sitting, however.

I wrote last week that if readers of this blog were at that game and saw a guy walking around the ballpark in a Taguchi jersey, to say hello because it was me. Well you may have seen a guy walking around in a red Taguchi t-shirt, but that wasn't me (I have a white home jersey with his name on the back), because my wife...

...had purchased a luxury suite for the occasion. And filled it with friends and family.

Needless to say, I made it to the railing in the suite and no further.

There are pictures - oh, there are pictures - but they're on a different computer and I haven't had a chance to peruse them fully. I'll probably post them at some other time. Some thoughts on the game, if you care to go back in time four days:

Item: They have pre-printed scorecards in these suites. Complete with the starting lineup filled in and all traditional statistics included (AVG, HR, RBI). On the back of the sheet media information was listed (who's hot, head-to-head record between the two, 'this date in Padres history'), and so on. Here's a good statistic: the Padres are 71-141 all time in St Louis.

Item (Part 1): There was a left over score sheet from TUESDAY's game against the Cubs in the suite. Remember, we were there on Sunday - 5 days later. Do the Padres suffer from 'inattention to detail' syndrome? More on this later.

Item: After the Cardinals acquired John Smoltz, and it became evident he'd start this game, I was looking forward to seeing him pitch, if for no other reason than I would have an in-person seat to evaluate him. Some of my relatives are dyed-in-the-wool Red Sox Fans (including my Mother, which made Christmas 2004 an interesting event). As you might expect, no opportunity to heckle was lost by these folks:

"Hey Mike, over/under on how many innings Smoltz throws today is 3."
"Second time through the lineup he'll get lit up."
"If he was facing the Orioles, they'd have knocked him out by now." This was after he had stuck out the seven consecutive hitters.
"Wow, National League baseball. Wow."

For my zealous relatives:
- The NL might be a weaker league right now, but please don't form an opinion on the caliber of play in the league based on watching the PADRES play.
- I thought the Red Sox led the world in savvy employees looking for any edge, including color of contact lenses and length of chest hair; so if Smoltz was tipping his pitches, how did they not see it?

Item (Part 2): Around the sixth inning, the Padre staff stopped by with a birthday gift and cake (which was a Nestle Tollhouse Cookie Ice Cream Bar, one of the many reasons Western Civilization rocks). The gift bag included a Padres pin (with Most Valuable Padre written on it, a nice touch for the Padre fan), a 'Padres beisbol' shirt with the word Padres covering South America (actually, a pretty cool shirt), and:

A Khalil Greene hat. I am not kidding. I burst out laughing.

This is funny mainly for two reasons. Obviously, one is that Greene's a Cardinal now, and I'm a Cardinal fan. I doubt the Padres staff was clever enough to give me a hat featuring a Padre who is now a Cardinal just because I am a Cardinal fan The other is there are Padres fans out there getting gift bags that also contain a Greene hat. Can you imagine being a die-hard Padre fan (assuming they exist) and receiving that? "Hey, guy, thanks for spending your special day with the San Diego Padres. Here's a memento for you: some merchandise bearing the likeness of a guy who was pretty popular but we got rid of because we can't afford to pay him, and now we're stuck with all this crap we can't sell. But we hope YOU like it. Go Padres!"

Yes, the Padres suffer from 'inattention to detail' syndrome.

Item: I was in the loo when Jason Motte took the hill. Good thing, too, because I missed his gopher ball to Hundley, and therefore was not tempted to scream at the top of my lungs the first curse word that came to mind. Which I'm pretty sure would rhyme with some variation of duck.

Item: Eleven pitchers makes for a very loooong game.

Item: John Smoltz had never struck out seven in a row. I saw that. I also saw AP hit his 40th HR. Not often you get to see that.

Item: Sunday was Padre backpack day, and a free Padres backpack was given to every kid 14 and under. We had made the decision to get a babysitter for our kids, so they didn't go to the game, but my wife was determined to get each of them a backpack. Only 27,435 people attended this event, so you know there were extra backpacks lying around. After protracted negotiations with the Padres staffers administering the suite for us, we finally received the backpacks. My thanks to Mark and Natalie for their efforts on our behalf.

And, the backpacks hold about 10 beers each.

Item: This suite was all you can eat. Hot Dogs, chicken tenders, well made bean dip lavished with extras like sour cream and olives, cookies, fudge, peanuts, crackerjacks, and so on. It also had a fridge stocked with Budweiser/Bud Light/Coors Light/Miller Lite, water, and soda. We paid for all the drinks as part of the suite price, but there was so much we couldn't hope to drink it all. We did give it the old college try, however.

Because we paid for them up front, we wanted to take the leftovers with us. Within reason, of course; we didn't shove bottles of beer down our pants or anything like that. So we put the kids backpacks to good use. All Coors Light was left behind, but a healthy sample of the rest came home with us. Good Times.

Ryan Franklin made the ninth inning more exciting than it needed to be, and I am thankful Oscar Salazar swung through a 3-2 fastball that was belt high right over the plate with the bases loaded and one out. But Franklin worked through it and finished the game. 5-2 Cardinals.

A fun day and a great day.

The only problem is the same milestone birthday for my wife is coming up soon. Now I have to top this. I am taking suggestions....

One more thing: apparently this was Brian Giles' suite. I can't imagine why he's not using it right now.

Annual Trek to Petco

2009-08-21T04:30:00.000-07:00

Cardinals have just wrapped up a 5-1 victory over the Padres, with Pineiro fanning 7. Seven!

As this weekend marks the annual Cardinal appearance in San Diego, and just like the sparrows returning to San Juan Capistrano. your humble author will make his annual foray into the stands of PETCO. This year it will be Sunday's game, which will also afford me the opportunity to watch John Smoltz make his debut as a Cardinal.

I won't give out my seat location here, but, I will be wearing my mega-cool So Taguchi #99 jersey. Because any part-time fan can wear Pujols/Holliday/Carpenter. I doubt there will be a lot of people wearing Taguchi jersey's Sunday, so if you see one walk by say hello.

Series Preview - San Diego

2009-08-20T04:30:00.000-07:00

Didn’t we just play these guys? You gotta love the scheduler. Cardinals don’t play San Diego for over 100 games, then play them seven times in 10 days.

Cardinals miss Mat Latos, but see Kevin Correia and Carillo in the series. Those previews are up front. With minor edits, the rest of the preview is recycled from last weekend.

Current snapshot

St Louis: 69-53, 1st NL Central, 6 games ahead of Chicago. St Louis is rolling, having won 10 of 12.

San Diego: 51-70, last in NL West, 20 games behind Los Angeles. San Diego rebounded from getting swept in St Louis to take 2 of 3 from the Cubs.

Pitching Matchups

20 August: Pineiro vs Tim Stauffer (1-5, 3.50). This is a rematch of last Saturday’s game. Stauffer kept the Padres in it, although he got the loss; if not for Molina picking off Venable to end the seventh, the result might have been different. Piniero labored through the first two innings, then pitched great for 4 2/3 before leaving with a 3 run lead in the seventh.

21 August: Lohse vs Clayton Richard (6-3, 4.66). Rematch of Sunday’s rain elongated game. Neither pitcher performed particularly well; Richard didn’t survive the fourth, Lohse the fifth. Richard will pitch better at PETCO, a pitcher’s park. Hopefully Lohse will rise to the challenge.

22 August: Carpenter vs Kevin Correia (8-9, 4.32). Saturday night’s game will be the marquee matchup of the series. Carpenter has been dominant, winning his last 8 decisions (it would have been 9 in a row had the bullpen not blown his game in Houston), and has to be considered in any NL Cy Young discussion. After not looking sharp the first 2 innings, Carp settled down and worked 8 in his victory Monday against the Dodgers.

Correia throws a fastball/slider 85% of the time. Correia beat the Brewers last week, and got a no decision on Monday after throwing six shutout innings at the Cubs. Don’t let his high ERA fool you. Since getting lit up by the Phillies on 23 July, the Padres are 4-1 in his starts and he sports a 2.37 ERA. He signed for $750K and has pitched like a $7.4M guy (according to fangraphs.com).

23 August: John Smoltz (2-5, 8.32) vs Cesar Carrillo (1-1, 11.88). The Media is speculating Smoltz will start this game. Since LaRussa/Duncan didn’t exactly give Boggs a ringing endorsement following last night’s game, let’s go with it. Everyone reading this is acquainted with Smoltz’s struggles this season. Here’s some data to make you happy:

Smoltz is 16-8 with a 2.55 ERA career against the Padres.
Smoltz is 2-0 with a 0.37 ERA in 5 career games at PETCO.
Smoltz has won his last 4 starts against the Padres, gone at least 7 in all of them, and given up 6 ER in his last 30 IP against San Diego.
Adrian Gonzalez is 2-12 (with a HR) against Smoltz in his career.

Note that Smoltz hasn’t faced the Padres since 2007, and hasn’t pitched at PETCO since 2006.

Carrillo got absolutely hammered by the Brewers last week, giving up 9 ER in 2 1/3 and one of the longest HR Prince Fielder has ever hit. He was better against the Cubs, working 6 and giving up 3 ER. His two starts indicate he walks a lot of people (6 in 8 1/3). Fastball/curveball/change comprise 98% of his pitches, and he has a heavy fastball (93.7 MPH average).

Key Padres

Adrian Gonzalez. Easily the best hitter in baseball getting no notoriety at all nationally. This is a function of the lousy team he currently plays for, and their location. People don’t come to San Diego to watch the Padres, even when they don’t suck. Gonzo reduced Miller Park to a smoking pile of rubble while going 10-16 with 3 doubles, a home run, and 6 RBI in the recently completed series. Suffice it to day the Brewers pitchers are happy to see him leave. He is now the first Padre ever to hit 30 home runs in 3 straight seasons. He can hurt you at any time. Although my fantasy team will cry foul, there is no reason to pitch to him with runners in scoring position in this series.

Heath Bell. Closer. Leads the NL in saves with 29. 51 K in 46 and a third. K/BB ratio of 3.19. He’s pretty good.

David Eckstein. You remember him? Clubhouse leader for the Padres. Brings all those lovely intangibles to the table, and is still (a) fairly clutch with the bat, and (b) is a mean bunter.

Mike Adams. Set-up guy. Filthy. 30 K in 25 IP, K/BB ratio of 6.00. And you’ve never heard of him.

Anthony Gwynn, Jr. Full name used so as to not confuse him with his rather well-known dad. Gwynn was acquired in a mid-season trade with the Brewers, and has been average at the plate (105 OPS+) and good in CF (5.7 UZR). He’s been worth 1.8 WAR, and he hits leadoff for this team.

Everth Cabrera/William Venable/Kyle Blanks. Much like the Pirates, the Padres have mixed and matched a lot this season. These 3 guys represent the youth movement on the team, and they have played well. Cabrera has great speed and the best arm on the club, at least among position players. He plays shortstop. Venable has been hot in August (hitting .351), and has homered in 6 of his last 12 games. He currently mans RF. Kyle Blanks is a work in progress, but he has ridiculous power. I mean Willy Mo Pena/Dave Kingman sized power. He typically plays left.

Chase Headley. Chase has been something of a disappointment to the Padres. He was a can’t miss prospect the fans begged Kevin Towers to call up early in 2008, but hasn’t hit like everyone thought. However, over his last 14 games the light seems to have gone on. He’s hitting a tick under .400 (.396), and is reaching base in almost half his plate appearances. He’s currently hitting 4th in the Padre order. He has power, but hasn’t displayed it consistently at the major league level. During this current streak, he has 5 doubles, a triple, and no homers.

Prognosis/Prediction. St Louis should win the games Pineiro and Carpenter start. Richard is a future ace, and will pitch better this time around; perhaps Lohse will too. Carrillo threw well in his only start in San Diego (the Cubs game), and we really have no idea what to expect from Smoltz. I’m hoping for someone better than he has been this year, but not close to as good as his 2007 self. I’ll be happy with a split here.

Cardinals Sign Smoltz

2009-08-19T12:51:00.000-07:00

Multiple sources are confirming John Smoltz, who cleared waivers yesterday, signed a one-year deal for the league minimum to play for the Cardinals.

I will discuss this more tonight on the United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour, but for now some thoughts, and those thoughts are mixed.

One mind says this is a move to shore up the bullpen. Smoltz is the only pitcher with 200 wins and 150 saves, so he is capable in relief. He's also right-handed, and the Cardinals right handed relief has been a roller coaster ride this year (McClellan, Motte, et al). However, Smoltz has appeared in relief only once since the end of the 2004 season, and that was his first appearance in 2008 after coming off the DL. So I don't think he was signed to shore up the bullpen.

The other mind says he's signed to start. Supporting this is Smoltz' own preference to start, and the fact he refused a minor league assignment with the Red Sox to convert to a relief pitcher. At his best, Smoltz is a borderline HOF-er as a starter, and as recently as 2007 he made 32 starts and threw 205+ innings. Given the mostly poor quality starts the Cardinals have gotten out of Lohse/Wellemeyer/Thompson/Boggs, Smoltz could help.

Making me wince is Smoltz getting torched as a Red Sox starter (2-5, 8.32, 1.700 WHIP). Reports following his dismantling at the hands of the Yankees indicated he only has one ML pitch right now - a slider - and is wild in the strike zone. I know a lot of 'smart boys' point out the NL is the weaker league, that Matt Holliday has thrived since returning to the NL, and that Smoltz could recover just as nicely. I guess we'll see.

Cardinals 7, Padres 5

2009-08-17T21:06:00.000-07:00

The Cardianls flat-out stole that game.

What an ugly day for St Louis. It started with Ryan getting picked off first. Then the blown suicide squeeze, which was a QUESTIONABLE decision by LaRussa at best. Then AP not hustling out of the box and getting cut down on the basepaths after knocking in the tying run. And they left 6 on through 4 innings against Richard, which would have been more if not for the aforementioned baserunning nonsense).

I wonder if the rains helped.

Lohse didn't have it. If he can't get it together against the Padres (even a Padres team that came in hot), we should all be concerned.

Most Sundays I won't get a chance to watch an afternoon game, because that's family time. So I taped it, then got the bright idea of trying to watch it anyway. Not the best decision I've ever made. However, I managed to get through the tape. When it ended I flipped the TIVO to 'Live TV'. Lo and behold, the game was still on! So I got to watch Molina drive in the tying run, and then Rasmus' bomb to win it.

Wow. For as poorly as they played, they never stopped battling and pulled it out. There's an old adage that says, you're going to win 40 and lose 40; it's the other 80 games that determine your season. This should have been one of the 40 they lost.

The fact they won is more evidence they have something special building in St Louis for 2009.

Series Preview - Dodgers

2009-08-17T21:01:00.001-07:00

The team’s last regular-season West Coast swing is this week, starting with 3 against the Dodgers. Cardinals took 3 of 4 from LA in St Louis this season.

Mostly well-known tidbit: The Cardinals are 76-80 against the Dodgers in Chavez Ravine since 1977. Which is odd, since I’m sure I’ve seen at a least 20 of those losses; I thought it was much worse.

Trivia Time: What happened on 28 August, 1977?

Current snapshot

St Louis: 67-52, 1st NL Central, 5 games ahead of Chicago. Cardinals have won 8 of 9, and flat out stole Sunday’s game from the Padres (despite some horrendous baserunning).

Los Angeles: 70-48, 1st NL West, 5 games ahead of Colorado. Things have gotten more interesting for the Dodgers since we last left them. Colorado has continued to play solid baseball, while the Dodgers have scuffled. They now sport a 5 game lead (down from 9 up on 25 July) and have lost 13 of 20. They hold the second best record in the NL to San Francisco.

Pitching Matchups:
17 August: Carpenter vs Charlie Haeger (0-0, 1.50). As I write this, the Cardinals trail 2-1 in the seventh. I’ll not insult the readership by offering an analysis of a game 67% complete.

18 August: Boggs vs Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73). Billingsley has not faced the Cardinals in LA since 2006, his rookie season. He gave up 5 ER in 5 innings that July day and lost to the immortal Jason Marquis. He gave up 6 ER on 28 July in a 10-0 loss to the Cardinals in St Louis. Boggs has never faced the Dodgers

19 August: Wainwright vs Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.91). Kershaw hooked up with Pineiro in that classic duel on 29 July, considered by some as the best Cardinal game fo the year to date. He got a no decision, but threw 8 innings of 4-hit ball, walking 2 against 7 strikeouts. Set your TIVO accordingly. Kershaw has faced the Cardinals once at home; he went 6, gave up 2 ER, and didn’t get the decision. Wainwright battled for 7 innings against the Padres; sure he threw a shutout while he was in there, but it wasn’t easy.

Prognosis/prediction. Cardinals are playing very well. I don’t want to call the Dodgers desperate, but they’re falling back into a pennant race, and I’m sure they want to treat St Louis as rudely as they were treated the end of July. I am benefiting from watching the game tonight (Ankiel’s BOMB makes it 3-2 Cards in the seventh), but I don’t see the Cardinals winning this series. They’ll get one, then we’ll see.

Go Cards!

Answer: Steve Garvey tied a Major League record with 5 extra base hits in 5 at bats (3 doubles, 2 HR). Yes it was against the Cardinals (Bob Forsch started that day).

Cardinals 7, Padres 4

2009-08-15T22:13:00.001-07:00

Considering that Piniero threw 53 pitches to get the first 6 outs, the fact he survived into the seventh is mighty impressive. Although, the Padres deciding to swing at everything he threw up there after Gonzalez's HR in the third helped. To wit:

3rd inning: 9 pitches
4th inning: 10 pitches
5th inning: 11 pitches
6th inning: 15 pitches
7th inning: 8 pitches

Yep, he threw 53 pitches over his last 4 2/3 after throwing 53 in his first 2 innings. Given the state of the Cardinal bullpen this season, and the fact they would most likely have gotten Thompson in long relief, turning into a bunch of hackers was a grave tactical error by the Padres.

Then, with one on and two out, the bullpen implosion started. Reyes - two hits, inherited runner scores. McClellan - hit, walk*, inherited runner scores.

*Hey Home Plate Umpire - how is the pitch you called strike 3 to Holliday in the fifth and Venable in the sixth suddenly a ball for Venable in the seventh? To load the bases? Thanks for not being consistent. We already knew you were bad.

I guess Will Venable didn't get the memo regarding Molina. Appreciate you getting picked off, guy; the Cardinals were on the ropes right there.

If I was a pitcher, Ryan Ludwick would never get a pitch that didn't sweep across the plate from right to left. Ludwick can't hit that pitch. Why would he get anything else? His seventh inning double on that pitch is an excellent example of 'even a blind squirrel sometimes gets a nut,' nothing more.

Is it just me, or does Matt Holliday swing at an awful lot of first pitches? Also, is it me or is Pujols pressing a little bit?

Quite a play to plate the seventh Cardinal run. I wonder if DeRosa went on his own there, or if that was what the dugout had told him to do.

Khalil Greene sighting!

Sure looked like Molina got in under the tag at home. The Padre broadcast team said, 'Well, I guess they don't trust Colby Rasmus!" after that play. Uh, Rasmus was 6 for 9 in this series when that play happened. Perhaps LaRussa called the double steal because he was bored? Because Thatcher wasn't paying attention to the runner on third? Because he wanted someone on in front of Pujols? Because he was swatting at a bee and the sign was misinterpreted by Oquendo? Whatever his reason, it wasn't due to a lack of confidence in Rasmus.

Motte pitched much better tonight than last night, retiring both hitters he faced. I still think he should be sent down, but at least he did his job tonight.

Can't complain about results. Cards stay 4.5 games up on Chicago, and look to sweep tomorrow.

Cardinals 9, Padres 2

2009-08-14T22:47:00.000-07:00

I am guaranteed to be able to watch the Cardinals 6 times a year, when they play the Padres. We get a bonus game this year, seeing as they're playing 4 in Petco next weekend. As I mentioned in my preview, Latos/Wainwright could be a tight game.

I didn't know Latos has a tendency to give up solo HR. Wainwright got the ball rolling with his shot in the third.

That would be almost all Adam needed, as the Cardinals rolled 9-2. Some quick thoughts on the game:

- I didn't fully grasp how tough this lineup is until tonight. Pujols-Holliday-Ludwick-DeRosa-Molina? That's a good group.

- Latos looked frustrated at the good pitches he threw being turned into hits. Welcome to the big leagues, kid.

- DeRosa looked lost at the plate, although the late double helped.

- Khalil Greene sighting!

- You know you're going good as a team when you score 9 runs and AP doesn't drive in a single one. In fact, he'd have worn the collar tonight if not for the seeing eye single he had in the eighth.

- Relief Roller Coaster: Trever Miller had me rolling my eyes when he hit Gwynn Jr to start the eighth. Motte had me screaming at the TV set with a Nine Run Lead. Seriously - why is Motte still in the majors? His first 2 hitters missed a HR by 6 feet and hit a HR. Send him down to learn an off-speed pitch he can control. He's not helping the Cardinals if he can only pitch in blowouts and still gets hammered.

- Channel 4 Padres announcers didn't bother to report that Khalil stayed in the game to play third, or Lugo at second. I can't believe they could come up with a worse team than Vasgersian/Grant, but Grant/Gwynn/Neely is worse. Neely didn't realize the reason Venable didn't throw home to try and get Molina was because he juggled the ball after he scooped it up; Gwynn had to tell him. I noticed that from my living room (not HD) 1500+ miles away. Great Googly Moogly. Keep Gwynn and send the other two away.

Round two tomorrow. Piniero/Stauffer.

Series Preview - San Diego

2009-08-13T22:00:00.000-07:00

The Cardinals have played every National League team this year but one. That would be the Padres, who come to town for a three-game set. Last year they came in having lost 6 of their last 10 and got swept (4 games). This year they come in having won 11 of 16. Last time they were that hot heading into STL was 2006; they’d won 14 of 20, and took 3 of 4 from the Cardinals. We had the last laugh in the post-season, however.

Mostly well-known tidbit: San Diego had a Pacific Coast League franchise called the Padres, which existed from 1936-1968. Ted Williams played for the Padres in 1936 and 1937.

Trivia Time: The Padres are the only team to trade a player away after a 50 HR season. Who was he, and where did he go?

Current snapshot

St Louis: 64-52, 1st NL Central, 4.5 games ahead of Chicago. Holliday is still hitting over .450 as a Cardinal. They won 2 of 3 from the Reds and have won 7 of 10 overall. They are playing well, and Chicago picked a fantastic time to go into a funk.

San Diego: 49-66, last in NL West, 20 games behind Los Angeles. Ah, the Nine closest to me. Despite the current hot streak (as mentioned above), only the Nationals and Pirates are worse than the Padres. That said, they now feature a lineup which has speed, plays decent defense, and has Adrian Gonzalez in the middle of it. And they just beat up on the Brewers, winning 2 of 3 in Milwaukee. St Louis misses San Diego’s best pitcher this season (Kevin Correia) in this series.

Key Padres

Adrian Gonzalez. Easily the best hitter in baseball getting no notoriety at all nationally. This is a function of the lousy team he currently plays for, and their location. People don’t come to San Diego to watch the Padres, even when they don’t suck. Gonzo reduced Miller Park to a smoking pile of rubble while going 10-16 with 3 doubles, a home run, and 6 RBI in the recently completed series. Suffice it to day the Brewers pitchers are happy to see him leave. He is now the first Padre ever to hit 30 home runs in 3 straight seasons. He can hurt you at any time. Although my fantasy team will cry foul, there is no reason to pitch to him with runners in scoring position in this series.

Heath Bell. Closer. Leads the NL in saves with 29. 51 K in 46 and a third. K/BB ratio of 3.19. He’s pretty good.

David Eckstein. You remember him? Clubhouse leader for the Padres. Brings all those lovely intangibles to the table, and is still (a) fairly clutch with the bat, and (b) is a mean bunter.

Mike Adams. Set-up guy. Filthy. 30 K in 25 IP, K/BB ratio of 6.00. And you’ve never heard of him.

Anthony Gwynn, Jr. I defer to Ted Leitner on how to say the man’s name, also to not confuse him with his rather well-known dad. Gwynn was acquired in a mid-season trade with the Brewers, and has been average at the plate (105 OPS+) and good in CF (5.7 UZR). He’s been worth 1.8 WAR, and he hits leadoff for this team.

Everth Cabrera/William Venable/Kyle Blanks. Much like the Pirates, the Padres have mixed and matched a lot this season. These 3 guys represent the youth movement on the team, and they have played well. Cabrera has great speed and the best arm on the club, at least among position players. He plays shortstop. Venable has been hot in August (hitting .351), and has homered in 6 of his last 12 games. He currently mans RF. Kyle Blanks is a work in progress, but he has ridiculous power. I mean Willy Mo Pena/Dave Kingman sized power. He typically plays left.

Chase Headley. Chase has been something of a disappointment to the Padres. He was a can’t miss prospect the fans begged Kevin Towers to call up early in 2008, but hasn’t hit like everyone thought. However, over his last 14 games the light seems to have gone on. He’s hitting a tick under .400 (.396), and is reaching base in almost half his plate appearances. He’s currently hitting 4th in the Padre order. He has power, but hasn’t displayed it consistently at the major league level. During this current streak, he has 5 doubles, a triple, and no homers.

Pitching Matchups:

14 August: Mat Latos (4-1, 2.43) vs Wainwright. Latos started 2009 in A-ball, was promoted to AA on 23 May, and to the Padres on 9 July. He will probably not pitch in September as the Padres try to protect his arm from a lot of innings this season. He features 98 mile per hour gas, and a slider/changeup as his off-speed options. He’s won his last 4 starts (Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, Mets) and is 2-0 on the road in his short career. He’s good, has the potential to be great, but isn’t there yet. The lineup he will face Friday is the best one he’s seen since his ML debut against Colorado, which he lost 6-1.

15 August: Tim Stauffer (1-4, 2.90) vs Piniero. Stauffer was the 4th overall pick in the 2003 draft, and has bounced between the Padres and their AAA affiliate (Portland Oregon) a lot in the interim. He missed all of the 2008 season with arm surgery. His 1-4 record is a function of run support. In his lone win the Padres scored 7 runs. In his other 5 starts they’ve scored a total of seven runs. He’s not easy to categorize as a ground ball/fly ball pitcher (his GB/FB is 0.95), and he features a fastball (90 MPH) and slider as his primary pitches. He also has a curve ball and changeup.

16 August: Clayton Richard (6-3 overall, 2-0, 4.15 with San Diego) vs Lohse. Richard is one of the key pieces of the 31 July Jake Peavy trade (Poreda is the other). He’s pitched well in his 3 starts with the Padres, but he runs out of gas in the sixth. To wit: he’s allowed 9 runs in those 3 starts, and 7 of them in the sixth inning. He’s very beatable if the Cardinals can keep it close through 5. He throws a fastball/slider/changeup combination mostly, and although the data says he has a cutter and curve, he rarely uses them.

Prognosis/prediction. Because they’re playing well, the Padres will give St Louis a sterner test than the Reds or Pirates did. But that doesn’t mean the Padres will win this series; the Cardinals are playing well, too. Do not pitch to Adrian Gonzalez with runners in scoring position under any circumstances. I cannot emphasize this enough. Cy Young candidate Wainwright has the goods to silence San Diego’s bats, as does Piniero, and so long as Lohse keeps them close they have a good shot to win on Sunday. We’ll predict 2 of 3 for the Redbirds, but there is sweep potential here.

Go Cards!

Answer: Greg Vaughn, 1998, Cincinnati.

What About a Four Man Rotation?

2009-08-07T04:00:00.000-07:00

Brad Thompson getting suspended, while Guillermo Mota walks free, is an absolute farce. Hitting a guy up by 13 to protect your hitter is OK, but buzzing a guy up by 7 to protect your hitter isn't? Mota threw with intent, Thompson didn't.

Anyway, on one of the recent United Cardinal Bloggers Radio Hour shows, Pip from Fungoes raised the question of LaRussa going with a 4-man rotation. After all, Todd Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, and Mitchell Boggs haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard. Well they have lit it up, just the wrong way - 10-15, 5+ ERA. Why not just skip that spot in the rotation?

This idea intrigued me.

Starting tomorrow, the Cardinals have 59 games left. With a 5-man rotation, that's 12 starts each for the first 4, and 11 for the #5 slot. With a 4-man rotation, that's 15 starts each for Carpenter, Wainwright, and Piniero, and 14 for Lohse.

There are a number of off-days between now and the end of the season - 6 to be exact. If they line up right, then the Cardinals could skip 6 starts by the #5 guy. This is good, right?

Well, it's not that good. The off days don't line up exactly like one would want:

6 Aug - Off day
6 games
13 Aug - Off day
10 games
24 Aug - Off day
6 games
31 Aug - Off day
9 games
10 Sept - Off day
6 games
17 Sept - Off day
6 games
24 Sept - Off day
10 games
End regular season.

CC Sabathia threw his last 4 games in 2008 on 3-days rest. Not everyone is CC Sabathia. I definitely don't think the Cardinals will try and pitch Carpenter on 3 days rest, given his medical history. I doubt they'll take that chance/accept that risk with Wainwright or Piniero.

So, if they try to keep them all on 4 days rest, the off-days don't help, and they'll have to use a #5 starter 9 times.

So LaRussa would save himself two starts from Wellemeyer's replacement.

Doesn't sound like its worth it. I like the idea of going with a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Piniero, and Lohse, but it won't work in practice. Sorry, Pip.

Welcome Back, AP

2009-08-05T07:09:00.000-07:00

I'm exhausted this AM, so I'll just say it's nice to see the big fella snap out of his funk.

I wonder if he had a lemonade with a long-lost childhood friend, who then attended the ball game and stood up during his at bat in the eighth. That ball didn't break a clock, but it was mashed.

If he hits 4 HR today....

Series Preview - New York

2009-08-04T08:00:00.000-07:00

For those of you coming from Cards Clubhouse, thanks for stopping by. Trivia answer is at the bottom.

St Louis flies to New York for a couplet with the Mets. Cardinals are 4-3 against New York this season, and dropped 3 of 4 at Citi Field back in June. This is another example of the ridiculous 2009 schedule; why was it necessary to play a 4 game set in June, then a 2 game set in August?

Mostly well-known tidbit: The Mets averaged 105 losses their first 7 seasons in the National League, then won the World Series in 1969. They were helped into the playoffs courtesy of an epic collapse by the Cubs, but going from finishing no higher than 9th to Champions of Baseball? No wonder that team wore the ‘Amazin’ Mets’ moniker.

Trivia Time: Can you name the starting rotation from the 1969 Mets, as well as the 1969 Cardinals?

Current snapshot

St Louis: 58-50, tie 1st NL Central, .001 percentage points behind Chicago. St Louis concluded a 5-2 home stand by getting shut out 2-0. Lost in all the Matt Holliday hoopla is the team only scoring 3 runs a game in their last 5, as well as Albert Pujols having cooled off significantly. Pujols is 14-62 with 2 HR since the break, and those 2 homers came in the first game after the break. Cause for concern. Ludwick hasn’t exactly lit it up since the break either (17-66, 2 HR, 10 RBI).

New York(N): 50-54, 4th NL East, 9.5 games behind Philadelphia. But for the Nationals they’d be in the basement. This is a team in disarray that is largely finished in 2009. Their DL reads like an All-Star Roster (Delgado, Reyes, Beltran, Putz, Wagner, Maine, among others). Then there’s the Tony Bernazard firing, the surreal press conference following that event, the HR Apple ‘issues’… they’re only 7.5 out of the Wild Card, but they have to jump over seven teams to win that. Not likely.

Pitching match-ups

4 August: Piniero vs Johan Santana (12-8, 2.96). Two-time CY Young winner Santana returns to the hill to torment the Cardinals. He beat Chris Carpenter 3-2 in a memorable game on 25 June that lived up to its billing. Santana is currently tied for th NL lead in wins with 12. He’s pitched very well against the Cardinals; in his 2 starts, he’s 2-0 with a 1.12 ERA.

He’s also 2-0 against Piniero in his career (win 2-1 on 28 Aug 02, and 7-3 on 8 June 06; there’s a ND as well (28 May 06)). Those games were while Joel was a Mariner and Santana a Twin.

Molina leads the current Cardinals in success against him (3-7, RBI). Pujols and Ludwick have homered off Johan. Khalil and Ryan lead the team in futility, they are 0-8 and 0-7, respectively, against Santana.

Piniero had a fantastic July and should be in the running for NL Pitcher of the Month. He went 3-0 (the team was 5-0 when he started) with a 1.22 ERA and a ridiculous .497 OPS during the month. That’s not a typo. He has owned the Mets this season, winning 5-2 in STL (22 April) and shutting them out 3-0 on 23 June. He pitched into the ninth both times.

David Wright is 5-14 with 2 doubles against. Angel Berroa (3-10), Jeff Francoeur (3-10), and Fernando Tatis (2-6) have had some success in limited action.

5 Aug: Lohse vs Livan Hernandez (7-5, 4.77). Livan has faced the Cardinals twice this year and is 0-2. He got lit up in his first start, giving up 7 ER in 4 1/3 of a 12-8 loss. His second start was better, but he opposed the Joel Piniero buzzsaw and lost 3-0. Livan remains your classic junkball pitcher, one of those guys who just keeps changing speeds and location.

Lots of Cardinals like to see him walk to the mound (WARNING! Small Sample Size anomalies follow), none more than Brendan Ryan (5-7, HR). The list of Cardinal regulars hitting .400 or better against him includes Schumaker (3-7) and Lugo (8-20). Pujols has 3 HR in 40 plate appearances. I don’t expect to see Khalil start in this series at all, and his 3-23 mark against Hernandez assures if he does start, it won’t be in this game. Ludwick is 1-10 off Hernandez, so he might sit this one out.

Lohse showed signs of coming around. His start against the Dodgers was his best since coming off the DL, as well as his best since his 8 shutout innings in KC on 23 May. He’s only given up one run in his last 9 innings pitched, so that’s something to build on for sure. Lohse beat Hernandez on in that 12-8 game on 23 April. As near as I can tell, that’s the only time the two have faced each other.

Lots of Mets hit well against Lohse (their team average is .327 off him, with a .374 OBP) Guys who DON’T hit him well include Francoeur (1-13) and, well, Francoeur. Everyone else is at least a .273 hitter. Yikes. Wright, Sheffield, Tatis, and Brian Schneider have all hit a Lohse pitch a looong way.

Prognosis/prediction. Cubs are in Cincinnati to take on the hapless Reds, so the Cardinals will need to win both these games to keep pace. Lohse, when on, is clearly better than Livan, and the 2009 Joel is as good as Johan. A sweep is definitely possible, but we’ll predict a split.

Go Cards!

Trivia Answers:
1969 Mets: Tom Seaver (25-7, 2.21), Jerry Koosman (17-9, 2.28), Gary Gentry (13-12, 3.43), Don Cardwell (8-10, 3.01), and Jim McAndrew (6-7, 3.47). Nolan Ryan did start 10 games for this team.
1969 Cardinals: Bob Gibson (20-13, 2.18), Steve Carlton (17-11, 2.07), Nelson Briles (15-13, 3.52), Ray Washburn (3-8, 3.06), and Mike Torrez (10-4, 3.59). Dave Giusti (12 starts), Chuck Taylor (not the shoes, and 13 starts), and Mudcat Grant (3 starts) spotted for this team.

Holliday and Boras

2009-08-03T14:34:00.000-07:00

Sunday's Post Dispatch featured an article about Matt Holliday. Yes, he of the .606 AVG going into yesterday's game (which was subsequently deflated by his first 'oh-fer' as a Cardinal). The jist of the article was discussing how much Holliday has helped the Cardinals, but the interesting part was the talk about re-signing him.

Money quotes:

Finding the term "rental player" repugnant, team chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. has pledged an all-out attempt to sign Holliday to an extension before he reaches free agency in November. The club minimizes Holliday's rejection of a Rockies proposal that averaged $18 million...

and

Boras on Saturday called "absurd" any suggestion of pending talks. He also sees ready comparisons with Carlos Beltran's trade from Kansas City to the Houston Astros in 2004 and Mark Teixeira's move from Atlanta to the Los Angeles Angels last July(emphasis mine). Both players landed elsewhere via free agency months after their big-splash trades.

Hoo, Boy.

So what does that really mean?

Beltran and Teixeira were both traded at or near the 31 July deadline; Beltran in 2004, Teixeira in 2007 and 2008. Here are some select numbers they each put up after the trade, and their subsequent contracts:

Beltran:
2004 (KC): 309 Plate appearances, .278/.367/.534, 15 HR 51 RBI
2004 (HOU): 399 PA, .258/.368/.559, 23 HR 53 RBI.
Post Season: 20-46, 8 HR, 14 RBI.

His numbers in Houston were pretty close to what he put up in Kansas City. He hit for a lower average but had more power. His post-season numbers, however, were ridiculous. That post-season, more than anything else, drove the 7 year/$119 million deal he signed with New York (which will pay him $18.5M through 2011)

Teixeira:
2007 (TEX) - 335 PA, .297/.397/.524, 13 HR 49 RBI.
2007 (ATL) - 340 PA, .317/.404/.615, 17 HR 56 RBI.
2008 (ATL) - 451 PA, .283/.390/.512, 20 HR 78 RBI.
2008 (LAA) - 234 PA, .358/.449/.632, 13 HR 43 RBI.
Post Season (2008) - 15 AB, .467/.550/.467, 0 HR 1 RBI.

Teixeira was widely accused of sand-bagging in Texas prior to the trade to Atlanta, but the numbers don't quite bear that out. However, he didn't command what he thought he should on the open market, so signed a 1 year deal for $12.5M with the Braves.

His Anaheim numbers look like they declined from his Atlanta ones, until you realize he did that in about half the at-bats he had in Atlanta. His post-season didn't drive the market quite as radically as Beltran's did in 2004, but he still got paid with the 8 year/$180M the Yankees bequeathed him ($20M this and next year, then $22.5M until 2016).

If those are the kinds of numbers Boras is contemplating for Holliday, that's a scary proposition.

Holliday's WAR right now is 3.8, which translates into $17.2M for his work in 2009. In 2008, when he finished his season, Teixeira's WAR was the highest it had ever been (6.7), which put his value at $30M; he got $22.5M a season (average, including bonuses). His compensation probably suffered that hit based on both the state of the economy last fall, as well as the Sabathia signing. Beltran's 2005 WAR was 6.5, good enough to be worth $20.2M, and he got $17M a season (average).

I assume teams will still be willing to pay ~$5 million dollars a win for high-end free agents this winter. Holliday certainly qualifies as a high-end guy. Holliday's career high in WAR is 7.9 (2007), and he's tearing it up right now; so let's further assume he'll stay in the high end of his statistical averages (assuming he'll stay as white hot as he is now is a little silly), so that'd put his 2009 WAR at a solid 7.

That's $35M a year for him. The Cardinals can't afford that.

Drop the price to $30M. So what? The Cardinals still can't afford him.

Lower his yearly salary to $22.5M, the same level Teixeira got last year. That could be doable, however, there's this additional elephant in the room: Albert Pujols is a free agent in 2011, and the team wants to re-sign him too. Albert's AVERAGED a 7.8 WAR from 2002-2008. That's, um, $40M per.

If they break the bank to sign Holliday, will there be any $$ left to sign Pujols? Highly unlikely.

It's becoming increasingly clear the Cardinals can't afford both Holliday and Pujols. At least to me. Now, there are options, which we'll explore later this week.

Let's hope they win the World Series this year. It may be their last shot for a while.

Series Preview - Houston

2009-07-30T20:13:00.000-07:00

Back on track following a series win over Los Angeles, the Cardinals welcome Houston to town. And by welcome I mean shouting from the ramparts with swords bared. Houston swept the Cardinals 20-22 July.

Mostly Well-Known Tidbit: Houston was a charter member of the Continental League, which never played a game. The Houston franchise was originally nicknamed the 'Colt .45's', selected based on the results of a 'Name that Team' contest. This is why such contests are no longer held. For the 1965 season the team was re-named the Astros, based on their new ballpark (the Astrodome), which was so named based on Houston's role in the space program.

Now, the Colt 45's played in Colt Stadium, the Astros in the Astrodome. Houston baseball fans rejoice this trena didn't continue down the ages (Houston Enrons? Houston Squeezed Oranges?)

Current Snapshot

St Louis: 56-49, 2nd NL Central, 0.5 games behind Chicago. St Louis is 7-2 at home in July. They may have played Houston last week, but this is the Astros first trip into St Louis since the second series of the season (which the Cardinals swept).

Houston: 51-51, 3rd NL Central, 4 games behind. Roy Oswalt left his last start with a strained lower back; initially it was reported he would miss his next start, but now ESPN is reporting he might pitch Sunday after all. Since sweeping the Cardinals they've lost 5 of 7, including back to back blowout losses to the Cubs. Houston's staff has the reputation of being pretty good this season (Oswalt, Wandy, Hampton, etc). Interestingly, however, they lag the Redbirds in both FIP (3.96 to 4.36) and BABIP (.296 to .306). In terms of wOBA, the Cardinals and Astros are virtually the same going into Thursday's games (.321 to .322).

Pitching Matchups

31 July: Brian Moehler (7-6, 5.16) vs Mitchell Boggs (1-0, 3.22). Moehler's the righty who beat Kyle Lohse 3-2 last Monday (20 July). He's appeared in 16 games against the Cardinals (8 starts) and has never lost to St Louis (5-0). He's been tough on the club his last 3 starts (19 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 16 K). He hasn't started a game in St Louis since 2003. On that particular day, he gave up 5 earned and didn't survive the fifth (Brett Tomko started that game for St Louis, one Houston eventually prevailed in 6-5 (12).

Albert Pujols loves - LOVES - hitting against Moehler (9-17, 3 HR). Lugo enjoys the experience (7-19), Molina does not (2-12).

Boggs returns to the Cardinal rotation in place of the exiled Todd Wellemeyer. Fans around the country rejoice, not because they wish Wellemeyer ill (some probably do, I don't), but because it's been clear for a while Wellemeyer doesn't have it as a starter at the moment.

Boggs has appeared against the Astros only once, on the 64th anniversary of D-Day. He faced 7 hitters, and gave up a HR to Geoff Blum.

1 August: Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 2.65) vs Carpenter. Rodriguez is having the finest year of his career. His ERA this season is over 2 runs lower than his career mark, yet all his other numbers are right in line with his career norms. Whatever. He's good this year.

Wandy went 7 on 21 July in beating the Cardinals 10-1. Well, actually Todd Wellemeyer got clobbered that night, but Rodriguez was pretty good. Oh, was that final 11-6? None of those other runs mattered. Wandy did pitch in Houston's first turn through St Louis, losing to Kyle Lohse 3-0 on 12 April.

Skip Schumaker is 3-9 off Wandy, and with that mark is the only starter hitting over .300 against him. AP is a pedestrian 3-23 against him. Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday have reached the seats.

I'm running out of superlatives for Carpenter. He's fourth in the league in ERA. His last start against Houston in St Louis was 2006; he threw a 6 hit shutout and won 7-0. He's 5-3 in his career against Houston. He's handled the current Astros lineup pretty well, although Pudge is hitting .357 and El Cubbayo has homered off him.

2 August: David "Bud" Norris (no record) vs TBD (Wainwright's turn)? Norris is scheduled to make his starter debut Sunday in Oswalt's spot. Norris was Houston's 6th round pick in 2006 out of Cal Poly 'san luiz obeezbo' (or as the missus calls it, the REAL Cal Poly). Norris is unique amongst pitchers, in that he went to an Engineering school and can probably do complicated math in his head. He was Houston's #7 ranked prospect in 2008 and #2 in 2009. He's right-handed. He appeared in the 29 July blowout loss to Chicago, his actual Major League Debut.

We'll go with Adam for the series finale; he's 6-0 career against Houston, and earned his first win this year by beating them on 11 April at home. Hunter Pence and Kaz Matsui have homered off him, but everyone else on the club is reporting a fluke injury to not have to step in and face him.

Prognosis/Projection We owe these guys, and need to stay with Chicago (headed to Florida for 3 games). It's hard to predict Cards/Astros series. St Louis should win the finale, assuming Wainwright pitches and Oswalt doesn't. Let's say Carpenter handles Wandy, but Moehler wins over Boggs. Go with 2 of 3.

Go Cards!

Let Me Explain. . .No, There's Too Much. Let Me Sum Up.

2009-07-29T08:49:00.000-07:00

I take a week off to travel and visit family, and all hell breaks loose. Most of the items covered below would deserve their own posts. Maybe later on. For now, some thoughts on the many recent news items from the Cardinals.

Julio Lugo acquired from Red Sox. Boston had a logjam at short, with the heir apparent (Jed Lowrie) and a serviceable journeyman (Nick Green) getting playing time ahead of Lugo. With Lowrie coming back from a wrist injury that's sidelined him most of this season, Lugo was expendable. Boston's SS position has been unsettled since trading Nomar away in 2004 (they've trotted Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria, Alex Gonzalez, Lugo, Lowrie, and Green out there since that 31 July 04 trade), and Lugo hadn't been the player they thought he would be.

Essentially the Cardinals gave up their 4th string OF for Boston's 3rd string SS. Whatever. I didn't understand this move when it happened, because Brendan Ryan has played a servicable SS since Khalil went down, but it made more sense after...

Matt Holliday acquired from Athletics.St Louis has strip-mined its farm system trying to make the team stronger for the stretch drive. First there was DeRosa for Chris Perez and Jess Todd; now this trade that sent Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortenson, and Shane Peterson to Oakland.

With this move the Cardinals had the big bat for the lineup that many in Cardinal Fandom had been pining for, however, the team gave up an awful lot to get him. Initially I didn't like this trade (although that's par for the course with me, based on what I'm told: 'No, I don't want more cheesecake,' 'No, you can't give me a million dollars,' 'No, I don't want to fly to the All-Star Game'), but upon reflection, I am withholding final judgement pending two things: (a) whether or not St Louis makes the playoffs, and far more importantly, (b) whether or not Holliday signs an extension to stay with the team.

Early returns suggest these two moves, along with DeRosa being healthy, have made the team far more dangerous offensively (other than Blanton's start on Sunday, the team has scored at least 6 runs in every game since the Holliday trade), so that's good for their probability of making the playoffs.

Jason Motte should not throw any more high leverage innings...until he develops an off-speed pitch he can control. Its great to be able to throw 99-MPH gas whenever you want; I wish I could. ML hitters will catch up to it eventually, especially after watching you fire it to 5 straight hitters, as Rollins and Victorino (and Utley, although he only doubled) did on Saturday.

Cardinals fell out of first for two days, although they're back in first after beating Dodgers 10-0 last night. Some thoughts on that:

- Chicago is 2 games up on the loss side (46 losses to 48), thanks to the Cardinals playing 4 more games than the Cubs at this point. Winning percentage is great, but losses will determine who makes the playoffs.

- I anticipate it will take 88 wins to triumph in the Central. To get there, the Cardinals need to go 36-24 (.600 ball). Chicago would then have to go 38-26 (.593 ball). Doable, but difficult. Difficult because:

St Louis really needs pitching help. This remains my biggest heartache with the Holliday trade. DeRosa, although not the offensive presence Holliday is, is a capable bat, and with Ludwick's renaissance in progress, the Cardinals had enough protection in the lineup (Schu/Rasmus/AP/Lud/DeRosa) for AP before that trade. Middle relief is becoming pretty shaky, and after Carpenter/Wainwright/Piniero the rotation is a barren wasteland. To win 36 games implies that those 3 win every start for the rest of the year, which is a pipe dream. I would have preferred to see the team spend their prospects on a different Halladay.

Now that Wellemeyer has been removed from the rotation, a development that's about 4 weeks overdue, we're going to ask Mitchell Boggs to throw high leverage innings in the midst of a pennant race to get us to the finish line. He's a professional, and has the ability no doubt, but that's a lot to ask of a rookie.

If Lohse fixes himself and reverts to last year's form, well, this whole discussion is moot, and the Cardinals suddenly become a much better than 88-win team.

Finally, an interesting article by Erik Manning, and an equally interesting rebuttal from Rob Neyer.

Series Preview - Los Angeles

2009-07-26T22:12:00.000-07:00

The Cardinals start a 7-game home stand with 4 against their old nemesis, and current best team in baseball, the Dodgers. St Louis took 4 of 6 from Los Angeles last year, winning both series 2-1.

Mostly well-known tidbit: St Louis leads the all time series (at least, since 1901) 946-917. Since the Dodgers moved to LA, however, they lead the all-time series 305-303. The Dodger franchise has won (since 1903) 18 NL pennants, but only 6 World Championships.

Can you name the numbers retired by the Dodgers franchise?

Current snapshot

St Louis: 53-48, 2^nd NL Central, 0.5 games behind Chicago. Matt Holliday (7-11, 3 RBI) and Julio Lugo (8-14, HR, 2 RBI) are smoking hot; unfortunately the bullpen (6 1/3 IP, 12ER the last 2 games) are not.

Los Angeles: 62-36, 1^st NL West, 8 games ahead of Colorado. They have the second best road record in the league (behind Philadelphia). 6-4 since the break, all at home.

Pitching match-ups

27 July: Randy Wolf (5-4, 3.45) vs Carpenter. Randy Wolf is 2-1 in July with a 2.81 ERA. The Dodgers are 2-2 in his starts this month. Wolf’s two wins were blowouts at New York and Cincinnati; the 2 losses were at the Padres (which isn’t too surprising, as he pitched for them part of last season) and against Houston (the other team he pitched for last year).

Wolf is 3-4 in 9 career starts against the Cardinals. He’s never won in St Louis. His last start in the Gateway city was 19 July 08 (as a Padre), when he went 5 2/3 and gave up 6 runs (4 earned). His last start overall against the Cardinals was 29 August 08 (as an Astro), when he went 6, allowed 2 runs (1 earned) and won 3-2.

Wolf has never squared off against Carpenter. AP (5-14, 4 RBI) and Holliday (4-14, HR, 5 RBI) have had the most success against him (min 10 PA). DeRosa is only 6-31 against him.

Carpenter? 1.86 ERA this month. Just tearing it up. Should have won the 22 July game against Houston. He’s never lost to the Dodgers (3-0 in 4 starts); his last start was the ND on August 5 last year (5 shutout innings). That was his second start back from the DL. No Dodger is hitting over .300 career against him, not even Manny, although Manny is hitting .292 (7-24, 2 HR).

28 July: Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.72) vs Wainwright. Billingsley won his last start against the Reds 6-2. The team is 3-1 in his starts in July, but Billingsley hasn’t pitched all that well this month overall; opponents have a .344 OBP off him, and he’s surrendered 4 HR. Granted, his 5 out, 6 ER effort against Houston has skewed these statistics a little bit, but his start against Milwaukee (5 IP, 5 ER) wasn’t all that good either.

Billingsley’s never beaten the Cardinals (3 starts, 0-1, other 2 ND the team eventually lost). His last start was that 5 Aug 08 game opposite Carpenter; he went 6, gave up 1 ER, and didn’t figure in the decision. He’s also never faced Wainwright.

Current Cardinals are hitting .262 against him (11-42) and have a .380 OBP. Matt Holliday has only 4 hits in 16 AB, but three of them are home runs. Mark DeRosa has also homered in 6 plate appearances.

Wainwright just keeps rolling along. He got credit for a complete game in Thursday’s 6 inning win over the Nationals. He hasn’t given up more than 2 runs in a start since his 21 June game in Kansas City; the team is 4-1 in his starts since that day.

Adam’s started 3 games against the Dodgers, and is 1-2. In his only start at home vs LA, he hooked up with Brad Penny for 8 shutout innings but lost 2-1 when James Loney homered with one on in the ninth. Current Dodgers are hitting .257 with a .316 OBP, led by Russell Martin (5-8) and Rafael Furcal (5-9). Manny Ramirez has not faced Adam.

Statistical Oddity: James Loney’s lone hit off Wainwright is that home run. It’s also the only time he’s reached base against Adam.

29 July: Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 2.96) vs Piniero? Kershaw had won his last 3 starts before his ND Thursday vs Florida. He leads the NL in walks, making him this series’ winner of the ‘be patient at the plate when facing him’ sweepstakes. Despite all the walks (he’s surrendered 17 hits and 16 walks this month), his ERA is 0.90 in July and opponents are reaching base overall at a .284 clip.

In his short career he’s faced the Cardinals twice, once at Chavez Ravine and once on the banks of the Mississippi. He’s 1-0. The win came in St Louis last August 7 (he beat Lohse). Cardinal hitters are batting .233 combined against him, and no one has more than 9 plate appearances opposing him. Holliday (him again. I’m starting to like that trade a little bit) is 3-7 with 2 walks. AP - 2-4 with a double. Brendan Ryan is 1-2.

He’s not faced Joel Piniero

I’ve got Piniero penciled in here because it’s his turn in the rotation, although mlb.com officially says the starter is TBD. Joel pitched great against the Phillies on Friday and evened his record. He’s faced the Dodgers twice and won both times, most recently last 6 Aug at home.

A lot of guys on the Dodgers have hit him really well, led by Manny (13-29, 4 HR), Casey Blake (8-18 with a HR) and Juan Castro (4-9, 2B and 3B).

30 July: Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 4.57)? vs Lohse. As with Piniero above, no Dodger starter has been named for the finale (at least, according to MLB.com). The start Kershaw is to get would actually be Kuroda’s spot in the rotation, so I’ve slid him in here. The other option would be Jason Schmidt.

You can see the first 3 Dodger starters are very solid, which is expected given their overall record. Kuroda hasn’t been up to that standard. He spent most of the first 2 months this season on the DL. That said, the team is 4-1 when he starts this month, even though he hasn’t gotten a decision since his loss to the Mets on 8 July. For the month his ERA is a robust 6.14, and hitters are batting .284 against him.

Not only has he not faced Lohse, he’s never faced the Cardinals.

Lohse left after 4 innings in Saturday’s game, having thrown 90 pitches. Not sure what to make of that. There aren’t any reports out there regarding his health following that short outing, at least, none that I’ve found. In his career he’s 1-2 in 3 starts against LA, and his lone start in St Louis against them was last 7 August (lost 4-1).

There’s a lot of Dodgers who like to hit against Lohse, including Manny (5-12, 2 HR) and Blake (2 HR); Juan Pierre, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal, and Orlando Hudson all carry .350 or better career marks against Lohse.

Prognosis/prediction. The Cardinal bullpen is exhausted, so it’s good their two best two pitchers start this series. I think it reasonable to expect Carp and Wainwright to continue rolling against the Dodgers. Piniero is due for a clunker, but we’ll hope it’s another day. Because this is the best team in baseball, we’ll predict a split; however, 3 of 4 is definitely in play. A sweep, although nice, probably isn’t.

Go Cards!

Dodger retired numbers: 1 (Pee Wee Reese), 2 (Tommy Lasorda), 4 (Duke Snider), 19 (Jim Gilliam), 20 (Don Sutton), 24 (Walter Alston), 32 (Sandy Koufax), 39 (Roy Campanella), 42 (Jackie Robinson), and 53 (Don Drysdale). All but Jim Gilliam are in the Hall of Fame.

Too Funny Not To Share

2009-07-16T21:46:00.001-07:00

A picture is worth 1000 words:

I have nothing to add.

Series Preview - Arizona

2009-07-16T06:45:00.000-07:00

The Cardinals open the second half of the season at home against Arizona. St Louis has owned the Diamondbacks since they joined the NL, beating them at an almost .600 clip; but they are barely .500 at home (22-20). Last year they took 3 of 4 at Busch. Unfortunately, Justin Upton usually plays right, so the team won’t be able to take advantage of his sloppy fielding in left. Although I’m sure he’s not too keen on playing the OF at Busch right now, what after Granderson's triple and all.

Mostly well-known tidbit: Arizona entered the league in 1998 and won the World Series in 2001, making them the fastest team to go from expansion to Champs. Except for the Red Sox, who, you know, won the first World Series in the first year it was contested, so they would be the fastest team to win a World Series (6 months). As if Red Sox fans needed another reason to be noxious.

St Louis: 49-42, 1st NL Central, 2 games ahead of Milwaukee. Coming off a 6-4 road trip and a home All-Star Game. St Louis also took 2 of 3 from Arizona back in April.

Arizona: 38-51, 4th NL West, 18.5 games back of Los Angeles. They’ve already fired one manager this season (Bob Melvin on 8 May). Melvin went 12-18 (.400). Melvin has since been hired by the Padres, one of only 2 “Major League” teams worse than the D-backs, to assist in evaluating minor league talent. Melvin’s replacement, AJ Hinch, has gone 26-33 (.440), an improvement of 2 games. So obviously it was Melvin’s fault AZ sucks this season. AZ is 22nd in baseball in OBP and 18th in SLG. They are 7th in FIP and 9th in UZR/150, proving their problem isn’t their pitching or defense.

Pitching match-ups

17 July: Jon Garland (5-8, 4.53) vs Carpenter. Garland was a mainstay of the White Sox rotation for years, posting consecutive 18-win campaigns in 2004-05. Although only 29, he appears to be on the slow decline. His ERA is right in line with years past, but his decision results are way down. Never a strikeout guy, his walks per 9 innings average has climbed for 3 consecutive seasons – and is up again (3.3) this year. Cardinals hitters need to be patient against him.

That said, his three July starts have been very good – 24 baserunners in 20 innings pitched, and an ERA of 2.25. He hasn’t had much luck against the Cardinals. In two career starts, he’s been torched for 10 ER in 8 2/3 innings (and is 0-2 as a result). He’s never pitched in St Louis. He lost the 15 April game 12-7, and only retired 8 hitters. He’s never faced Chris Carpenter.

Albert Pujols doesn’t have a hit off Garland in 6 plate appearances. No other current Cardinal has more than 3 PA’s against Garland.

Statistical oddity. There are only 19 guys that have faced Pujols 6 or more times and not surrendered a hit. Only 3 of those guys haven’t walked him either – Matt Mantei (0-8, 4K’s), and the immortals Robert Person (0-6, 2K’s) and Kyle Peterson (0-6, 2Ks). None of those guys have pitched in the Majors since 2005.

Carp comes off his 10 July win over the Cubs. He’s owned Arizona in his career (3-0, 2.23, 20K), but has surrendered 4 HR in 32 innings pitched. And, it was in his start against AZ this year that he hurt his oblique swinging a bat and subsequently missed a month. Swing easy, big fella. Carp’s last STL start vs AZ was in 2006 (ND). Another oddity – none of Carp’s victories over Arizona happened in St Louis.

Felipe Lopez has hit 2 of those aforementioned homers, and has a 1.109 OPS against Carpenter in his career. Chris Young and Miguel Montero have 3 hits in 4 combined plate appearances off Carpenter. No one else on the team is hitting over .200 against him.

18 July: Yusmerio Petit (0-3, 7.91) vs Wainwright. In a 4-year career Petit has made 26 total starts and never thrown more than 57 innings in a season. Petit has been on the yo-yo between Phoenix and Tucson, their AAA affiliate, in 2009. He hasn’t pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in any appearance this season. He’s also positively Wellemeyer-like in runners allowed per inning (1.758).

Despite all that, he’s 2-1 career against St Louis in 5 appearances (2 starts), and one of those wins was in St Louis (at the old stadium). Recent history with the Cardinals: he threw 2 innings in the 15 April game, and gave up 4 runs. He last started a game vs St Louis 2 Sept 08, didn’t get out of the fifth, and lost 12-3. His only start in St Louis was July 2007.

Ludwick, Molina, and Pujols are all hitting .400 or better against him. Ludwick has 2 HR off Petit.

Wainwright shut down the Cubs on Sunday, both before and after getting hit on this throwing hand by a throw in the fifth inning. He became more dominant after that, allowing 4 hits, a walk, a run, and striking out 5. Wainwright leads the NL in starts and innings pitched. The Cardinals have won 6 of his last 7 starts. He’s got a 1.39 ERA since June 21st. In summary: he’s the ace, and he’s pitching like an ace.

Adam is 3-2 lifetime against AZ and 3-1 as a starter. He won both his starts against them last year, the most recent one on 24 Sept in St Louis. Felipe Lopez has solved him as well, at a .444 clip. Mark Reynolds is the only other starter hitting over .300 against him.

19 July: Dan Haren (9-5, 2.01) vs Piniero. Tough matchup for Piniero. He’s facing the league’s ERA leader, and constant reminder of how bad the Mark Mulder trade turned out to be. Haren shut out Florida on 10 July, and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 14 1/3 innings. He’s allowing 0.808 runners per inning, which is ridiculous for a guy that’s thrown 130 innings already this season.

Haren has started one game against his former team, way back in 2007. He won 14-3 in Oakland. Of the current Cardinals only Pujols and Duncan have faced him. The good news is they had 2 of the team’s 6 hits that day.

Piniero’s no decision against Cincinnati on 3 July broke a 15-game consecutive decision string for him. His last start was a complete game 3 hitter at Milwaukee, which he won 3-1. Piniero leads or is tied for the league lead in complete games, shutouts, fewest home runs and walks per 9 innings, and losses. Just a weird statistical season for him.

Joel is 2-0 in 5 career appearances against the Snakes (3 starts). He got the win on April 15 this year in Arizona, and the other win was at home last 25 Sept by a 12-3 margin. Of the current D-backs with more than 6 plate appearances against him, Chris Young has had the most success (3-7, HR). Justin Upton and Stephen Drew are also hitting over .300 against Piniero. Felipe Lopez? A paltry .273.

Prognosis/prediction. The Cardinals have the pitching edge in the opener and a decided pitching edge in the Saturday tilt. Arizona gets the edge vote when Haren is on the mound. This is the type of team against which the Cardinals need to clean up. So let’s start the second half off right.

Cards take 2 of 3.

Go Cards!

All Star Game thoughts

2009-07-14T21:06:00.000-07:00

- Albert Pujols signing autographs for the troops was awesome, and actually caused some misting to appear in front of my eyes.

- Stan Musial looked old. I know he's 88 years young, but that's the most frail I've seen him. They should have done a montage to remind the public just how good Musial was. It also would have been cool if the players huddled around him after he arrived, a la Ted Williams in 1999.

- When President Bush II threw out the first pitch before Game 3 of the 2001 World Series, he looked like this:

Photo from Wikipedia.org

Appropriate attire for the location and time in our history.

President Obama, tonight:

Photo by AP

I know he's from Chicago. The event was in St Louis. MLB couldn't find the President a Cardinal jacket? Or even better, a 'All Star 2009' jacket of some sort? My wife thinks I look cute naked, but I'm not throwing out the first pitch of the All Star game in my birthday suit.

- Kudos to the fans for loudly cheering Mark Buehrle (St Louis Native), Ryan Howard (ditto), Dan Haren (former Cardinal), Jason Marquis (former Cardinal), Joe Torre (Cardinal great), Zack Greinke (marooned in Royals hell), and booing Ted Lilly (Cub).

- I don't think this is an All-Star Game AP will look back on fondly, other than the ovation he got during the introductions. E-3 in the first that led to a run and extended the inning. Oh for 3, nothing out of the infield. At least he made several nice plays with the glove during the game.

- Who would have predicted the Cardinal driving in a run would be Yadier Molina?

- Ryan Franklin - Solid.

- Curse you Carl Crawford. But only this night; this weekend I expect you to continue carrying my Rotisserie League Team.

- Its hard to win when you get one hit after Fielder's ground-rule double in the second inning - and that hit could have been called an error.

- The NL hasn't won an All-Star Game since before the advent of interleague play. So this is all Bud Selig's fault! Do we need a more compelling reason to ban interleague play?

- Trevor Hoffman in 2006, Chris Young in 2007, Heath Bell tonight. I decree no Padre pitcher shall be selected to the All-Star Game until after the NL wins again. I don't care if the Padres have a guy that's 17-0, with 17 consecutive no hitters and every batter retired via strikeout; he doesn't pitch.

Stan Musial's Stance

Perhaps, the End of the Beginning

UCB Topic - Top 5 Stories of 2009

The Dominoes Start to Fall

Rumors, Arrests, and Whatnot

More Posturing

Cards lose Parisi, gain Jukich

Arbitration Results and Brad Penny

Whitey Herzog Elected to the Hall of Fame

Arbitration Offers

Post-Thanksgiving Food Coma

The Cy Young, Sabermetrics, and Evaluating Pitchers

UCB Topic: 2009 Cardinal Blogger Awards

Lincecum wins Cy Young; Some Appalled

2009 NL ROY balloting

2009 NL Gold Glove Awardees - based solely on ???

2009 NL Gold Glove Projections - based solely on Defense

Kids Korner: Potty Training

Now on to the Off-Season

Will the Yankees pitch to Chase Utley?

Depressing

The St Louis Rams

Bloody Brilliant

UCB Radio Hour TONIGHT - 8:00 pm Pacific (new time)

Mark McGwire Returns to the Crosshairs

UCB topic - Blogger Round Table

BREAKING: Bill DeWitt III to appear on the UCB Radio Hour

The Post Where I Agree With Everybody

BBA Topic: The Cy Young

Well... So Much For That

NLDS Game 2 Recap - Dodgers Get Early Holliday Present

NLDS Game 1 Recap - Gridlock

Steve Phillips - open mouth, insert foot

NLDS Preview - Los Angeles

Comeback Player of the Year and Roster moves

The Society for American Baseball Research

Before you panic...

NL Playoff matchups set. Finally

Cardinal Pitching, Defense - Good Enough to win the NL?

Well That Was Fun

Cardinal Offense - Good Enough to win the NL?

Cardinals stop slide, clinch NL Central

Series Preview - Colorado

Good For Your Soul

Sometimes you just don't have it

Series Preview - Houston

Not the way it could have ended

Well those two games have lived up to their billing

How much do I hate Fox Sports? Let me count the ways.

Series Preview - Chicago Cubs

UCB Stuff and magic numbers

Holliday Blues

Hair on Fire Wednesday

Cards win despite Wellemeyer

Series Preview - Florida

That Was Less Fun Than Expected

Series Preview - Atlanta

An Easy Date to Remember

Albert Rides Shotgun For The Wagonmaker

How Badly Did We Need a Holliday?

Mid-Series Review - Milwaukee

Masterful

Cardinals rest everybody, push Pirates to the brink

Cardinals swamp Pirates, tie for best record in NL

Series Preview - Pittsburgh

Series Preview - Milwaukee

John Smoltz the second coming of Christ?

Series Preview - Washington

AFTERMATH - Annual Trek to Petco

Annual Trek to Petco

Series Preview - San Diego

Cardinals Sign Smoltz

Cardinals 7, Padres 5

Series Preview - Dodgers

Cardinals 7, Padres 4

Cardinals 9, Padres 2

Series Preview - San Diego

What About a Four Man Rotation?

Welcome Back, AP

Series Preview - New York